Alabama at Missouri Picks and Prediction for Saturday, October 11, 2025
The Alabama Crimson Tide (4–1, 2–0 SEC) travel to Columbia, Missouri to face the Missouri Tigers (5–0, 1–0 SEC) on Saturday, October 11, 2025. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00 PM ET at Faurot Field / Memorial Stadium. Alabama is riding momentum from signature wins, while Missouri seeks to solidify its status as an SEC contender. Discover which teams the pros are backing with our daily college football picks.
Alabama Crimson Tide Analysis
Alabama enters this game as a favorite, though the line is relatively modest, reflecting Missouri’s strength and home field.
Key Player Stats & Team Metrics
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Ty Simpson (QB): Simpson has thrown for 1,478 yards with 13 touchdowns and just one interception.
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Jam Miller (RB): Leads the Alabama rushing attack. He currently has ~182 rushing yards and 1 rushing TD.
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Germie Bernard / Ryan Williams (WRs): Combined, they have ~728 receiving yards and 8 receiving touchdowns.
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Offense: Alabama averages 36.4 points per game and 325.4 passing yards game.
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Defense: Alabama is allowing 16.0 points per game and 285.8 yards per game. Their pass defense and turnover creation are key factors.
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Betting / spread metrics: Alabama has been strong against the spread overall, and historically performs well in matchups vs. Missouri.
Missouri Tigers Analysis
Missouri enters undefeated and seeking to make a statement at home. Their ground game is one of the key strengths this season.
Key Player Stats & Team Metrics
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Ahmad Hardy (RB): Hardy leads the nation in rushing with 730 yards on 103 carries and 9 rushing touchdowns.
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Beau Pribula (QB): The Missouri QB has completed 75.9% of passes, throwing for ~1,203 yards, 9 touchdowns and 3 interceptions.
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Marquis Johnson / Kevin Coleman Jr. (WRs): Together, they have 661 receiving yards and 3 receiving touchdowns.
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Offense: Missouri is averaging 45.2 points per game.
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Defense: They allow 14.6 points per game and 203.8 yards per game.
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Ground dominance: Missouri’s rushing attack (292 yards per game) is a major strength; Alabama’s run defense will be tested.
Standout Players and Key Notes
Alabama:
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Ty Simpson: Clean decision making, minimizing turnovers, and connecting with his receivers will be vital.
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Germie Bernard / Ryan Williams: Must stretch the field and punish mistakes in Missouri’s secondary.
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Alabama defense & secondary: They need to contain Hardy’s rushing game and force Missouri into passing situations.
Missouri:
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Ahmad Hardy: The weapon for Missouri — if he’s rolling, he can control the game and shorten drives.
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Beau Pribula: Must avoid mistakes, manage pressure from Alabama’s defensive front.
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Marquis Johnson / Kevin Coleman Jr.: Key in converting in third downs and in red zone passing.
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Home-field factor: Columbia and the crowd will try to be a factor; Missouri has been strong at home this season.
Alabama vs Missouri Prediction Reasoning
This game pits Alabama’s passing attack and defensive pedigree against Missouri’s dominant rushing offense and stout defense. The matchup of Alabama’s pass vs Missouri’s run will likely define the game.
If Alabama can slow Hardy, force Missouri into third-and-long, and score efficiently via their aerial game, they’ll be in strong position. But Missouri at home, with a top rushing attack and an efficient offense, is absolutely capable of controlling tempo and making this a close fight.
Given the tight spread, the edge goes with Alabama’s consistency, but Missouri is dangerous — this likely comes down to a few big plays, turnovers, and situational execution.
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Final Score Projection: Alabama 28, Missouri 24
Best Picks
- Alabama ML
- Under down to 52.5 total points
