Alabama vs Vanderbilt Picks and Prediction for Saturday November 14 2026
Alabama heads to Nashville on Saturday for a 12:45 PM ET game against Vanderbilt at FirstBank Stadium. SEC Network has the coverage. The Crimson Tide are favored by 19.5 points, with the total at 54.5. Early weather forecasts suggest temperatures in the upper 40s, a light north wind and little chance of rain. Alabama just went into Baton Rouge and beat LSU 31-13. Now the Tide get a Vanderbilt team that’s been having trouble stopping SEC opponents. I like Alabama to win. The question is whether the Commodores can do enough to stay inside three touchdowns. Be prepared for all of the college football action with our free college football picks.
Alabama Has Been Taking Care of Business
Alabama is 7-2 overall and 3-1 on the road after beating LSU by 18 points. That’s two straight victories for the Tide, including a 49-18 win over South Carolina. Alabama had lost consecutive games to Georgia and Tennessee before that, so the response has been encouraging. The Tide have been playing much better football, particularly on defense.
Alabama is averaging roughly 37 points per game and allowing about 20. The Tide have been moving the ball well through the air, averaging around 260 passing yards per game, and the defense has been particularly good against the run. Alabama was allowing just over 100 rushing yards a game entering the LSU matchup. That’s a problem for Vanderbilt, which has struggled to establish its ground game. The Tide should be able to force the Commodores into difficult third downs.
Keelon Russell entered the LSU game with more than 2,000 passing yards and 15 touchdowns. London Brooks had 488 receiving yards, while Daniel Hill had provided more than 330 rushing yards. Those aren’t overwhelming rushing numbers, but Alabama doesn’t need to run for 250 to beat Vanderbilt. The passing game should have opportunities against a defense that’s been giving up around 30 points a night. Alabama needs to avoid turnovers and penalties, because that’s about the only way I see Vanderbilt hanging around.
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Vanderbilt Has Been Having Trouble Against SEC Teams
Vanderbilt is 4-5 after beating Mississippi State on November 7. That win ended a difficult stretch against conference opponents. The Commodores had previously lost to Auburn, Georgia, Ole Miss, Arkansas and Kentucky. Vanderbilt has shown it can compete in stretches, but the defense has been having trouble keeping better opponents from pulling away.
The Commodores are averaging around 23 points per game and allowing about 29. Their offense has been producing roughly 340 yards a night, but the rushing attack has been particularly weak, averaging close to 106 yards. That’s not encouraging against Alabama’s defensive front. Vanderbilt has also been allowing too many big plays, and Alabama has enough speed to take advantage of mistakes in coverage.
Jared Curtis entered November with nearly 1,500 passing yards and eight touchdowns. Jayden Sherrill had more than 700 receiving yards, giving Vanderbilt a legitimate downfield option. The Commodores need that passing connection to work because running into Alabama’s defense all afternoon probably isn’t going to accomplish much. Vanderbilt also needs to protect Curtis. Long third downs against this defense can turn into turnovers pretty quickly.
Alabama vs Vanderbilt Picks and Prediction
Spread Pick: Alabama -19.5
I’m laying the 19.5 with Alabama. It’s a big number on the road, and the Tide are coming off an emotional win at LSU. That’s the part that makes me a little cautious. But Vanderbilt has been allowing around 29 points per game, and its rushing offense is a poor matchup against Alabama’s defense. I don’t think the Commodores can consistently move the ball. Alabama should get enough possessions and favorable field position to build a comfortable lead. Give me the Tide to win by three touchdowns or more.
Total Pick: Under 54.5
I’ll take the under 54.5. Alabama can score 40 against this defense, so there’s definitely some risk. But Vanderbilt’s offense has been averaging only about 23 points and could struggle to reach even that number against the Tide. Alabama has also been playing better defense lately, holding LSU to 13 points. The concern is Alabama creating short fields with turnovers and scoring quickly. But I think Vanderbilt struggles to contribute enough for this to become a high-scoring game. Something around 38-13 sounds reasonable.
Final Picks: Alabama -19.5 | Under 54.5
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