Arizona State vs BYU Picks and Predictions for Saturday October 31 2026
BYU finally lost, and I can already hear the argument at the other end of the bar. One bad Saturday doesn’t suddenly make the Cougars a bad football team. Fair enough. But losing 39-31 to UCF in double overtime does make me question whether I’d want to lay more than two touchdowns with them a week later. Arizona State isn’t particularly dependable either. The Sun Devils have been blown out twice in Big 12 play. Then again, they just handled Kansas State, so maybe this one isn’t quite the mismatch the spread suggests. Be prepared for all the college action with our free college football picks.
Arizona State visits LaVell Edwards Stadium in Provo, Utah, on Saturday, October 31, 2026. Kickoff is set for 3:30 PM ET on FOX. BYU is favored by 16.5 points after opening around 17.5, with the total at 51.5. The early forecast calls for temperatures in the 50s, light winds, and little precipitation. Unless the forecast changes substantially, the weather shouldn’t dictate the game.
Arizona State Has to Prove It Can Travel
Arizona State is 4-3 overall and 2-2 in the Big 12 after beating Kansas State 28-17. That’s a useful response to the 53-25 beating the Sun Devils took at Texas Tech a week earlier. The problem is what happens when Arizona State runs into better opposition. Texas A&M scored 48 against the Sun Devils, Baylor scored 55, and Texas Tech put up 53. Those aren’t isolated defensive mistakes. That’s a pattern. Arizona State has to prove it can compete for four quarters against a quality opponent away from home.
The Sun Devils are averaging about 31 points per game, but the season average gets a considerable boost from scoring 70 against Morgan State. Against Baylor and Texas Tech, Arizona State allowed 108 combined points. That’s the number that should concern anybody thinking about taking the underdog. BYU isn’t necessarily going to run the score up, but the Cougars have a balanced enough offense to expose a defense that loses its assignments. Arizona State needs to tackle better and stop giving up scoring drives that turn into track meets.
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There is a path for the Sun Devils. Their offense has enough passing ability to move the ball, and BYU just surrendered 39 points at UCF. Arizona State doesn’t need to score on every possession, but it has to keep the Cougars honest with the run and avoid turnovers. If the Sun Devils fall behind 21-3 and start throwing on every down, this could get ugly. If they can hang around into the third quarter, though, sixteen and a half points becomes a much more interesting proposition.
BYU Has Something to Prove After UCF
BYU is 6-1 overall and 3-1 in conference play. The Cougars started with six straight wins, including victories over Arizona, Iowa State, and Notre Dame, before UCF finally got them Saturday. That 39-31 double-overtime loss will sting. BYU had been winning with defense, patience, and timely offense, but the Knights found ways to score when they needed to. Now the Cougars return to Provo, where they’ve been far more comfortable.
Before the UCF loss, BYU had held TCU to ten points and Iowa State to ten. That’s the defense I’m interested in seeing Saturday. The Cougars don’t have to win every possession. They have to prevent Arizona State from turning this into the kind of high-scoring game that gave Baylor and Texas Tech so much success against the Sun Devils. BYU has shown it can win lower-scoring games, and its ability to control the line of scrimmage gives it an advantage here.
The concern is the price. BYU was a perfect 6-0 against the spread before losing at UCF, so the market has already been rewarding the Cougars’ backers. Now they’re laying more than two touchdowns against a conference opponent coming off a win. I like BYU to respond, especially at home, but there’s a difference between winning comfortably and covering 16.5. A late Arizona State touchdown could make a perfectly convincing BYU victory a losing ticket.
Arizona State vs BYU Picks and Predictions
Arizona State +16.5
Give me Arizona State with 16.5 points. I’m not arguing that the Sun Devils are the better team. They’re not. Their defense has been shredded by quality opponents, and BYU should move the ball. But after the Cougars’ first loss, I’m not excited about paying a premium for an emotional bounce-back performance. Arizona State just beat Kansas State and has enough offense to score in the 20s if it avoids turnovers. BYU could win this 34-17 and cover, which is the obvious danger. I think the Sun Devils keep it a little closer than that.
Under 51.5
I’ll take Under 51.5. BYU’s better games have generally come when its defense controls the tempo and the offense doesn’t have to chase points. Arizona State’s defensive problems make this uncomfortable, but the Cougars don’t necessarily need 40 points to win. I expect BYU to run the ball, shorten the game, and force Arizona State to earn its possessions. The risk is another defensive collapse by the Sun Devils that turns this into a rout. Still, a game in the neighborhood of 31-17 feels more plausible than another shootout.
Final Picks: Arizona State +16.5 and Under 51.5
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