Arkansas State Red Wolves vs Memphis Tigers Picks and Prediction for Saturday, September 5, 2026
The Arkansas State Red Wolves visit the Memphis Tigers on Saturday at 7:00 p.m. ET at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium in Memphis, on ESPN+. Arkansas State opens 2026 after finishing 7-6 overall last season, closing with wins over Appalachian State and Missouri State. Memphis is 1-0 after opening with a 27-21 road win over UNLV. The Tigers are 8.5-point favorites after opening -10.5, while the total is 55.5 points. Cash in a winner with our free NCAAF picks.
Arkansas State Red Wolves Preview
Arkansas State enters the season with a new quarterback after Jaylen Raynor transferred to Iowa State. Ethan Crawford, Drew Dickey, Trey Owens and Jeremy St-Hilaire are among the options. The Red Wolves have more stability around the quarterback, with four offensive line starters returning. Chauncy Cobb caught 73 passes last season, while Kenyon Clay and Devin Spencer lead a backfield that also added Valdosta State transfer Corey Reddick Jr., who rushed for 651 yards and seven touchdowns in 2025.
The bigger concern is a defense that allowed more than 400 yards per game last season. Arkansas State lost significant pass-rushing production, including Demarcus Hendricks and Eathan Hassler, who combined for 16.5 sacks. The secondary has more experience with AG McGhee and Brandon Barnes returning, but opposing quarterbacks completed 68% of their passes and averaged 245 passing yards per game against the Red Wolves in 2025.
Memphis Tigers Preview
Memphis already has a quality road win after beating UNLV 27-21. Marcus Stokes completed 15 of 26 passes for 223 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions. Jaylin Carter added 97 rushing yards and a touchdown on 15 carries, while Stokes contributed 45 yards on the ground. The Tigers finished with 195 rushing yards and averaged 5.7 yards per carry.
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The Memphis defensive front made the difference in Las Vegas. The Tigers recorded six sacks and 11 tackles for loss, including 2.5 sacks from Elijah Kinsler. Zach Ruffin led the defense with 13 tackles. UNLV still passed for 291 yards, but Memphis shut out the Rebels in the fourth quarter and produced a fourth-down sack with just over six minutes remaining to protect the lead.
Arkansas State Red Wolves vs Memphis Tigers Prediction
Memphis has already shown it can produce a balanced attack, and the matchup fits Carter and the running game. Arkansas State was 5-0 last season when holding opponents to 160 rushing yards or fewer, making Memphis' 195-yard opening performance especially important. Arkansas State has enough returning offensive talent to score, but uncertainty at quarterback and the rebuilt defensive front favor Memphis. The Tigers' pass rush will create difficult downs, while Stokes and Carter provide enough offense to build separation at home. Final Score Prediction: Memphis Tigers win and cover ATS, 34-24.
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Best Picks
- Memphis Tigers -8.5 (-112)
- Over 55.5 (-105)
