Auburn vs Mississippi State Picks and Prediction for Saturday November 14 2026
Auburn heads to Starkville on Saturday for a noon ET game against Mississippi State at Davis Wade Stadium. ESPN2 has the game. The Tigers are laying 3.5 points, and the total is 49.5. I get why Auburn is favored, but I’m not sure I trust this offense enough to lay points on the road. Mississippi State hasn’t exactly been lighting up the SEC, either. Both teams have been frustrating to watch at times. Still, the Bulldogs are at home, and I think they’ve got a decent shot at making this a four-quarter game. Be prepared for all of the college football action with our free college football picks.
Auburn Has Been Winning Some Ugly Games
Auburn is 5-4 after beating Arkansas last Saturday. The Tigers have been competitive, and their defense has kept them in games when the offense hasn’t done much. That’s been the story with Auburn. One week they move the ball well enough to look dangerous. The next week they’re struggling to get anything going. It’s hard to know which version is going to show up.
The Tigers have been scoring somewhere around 25 points a game and allowing roughly 27. That’s not exactly the kind of production that makes me comfortable giving away points. Auburn can run the football, and that’s probably its best chance against Mississippi State. The passing game has been hit or miss. The defense has done some good things, but it’s also had trouble getting off the field against teams that can run it. Mississippi State isn’t going to be afraid to test that.
Auburn needs to stay ahead of the chains. That’s a pretty simple thing to say, but it’s been an issue when the Tigers haven’t been running the ball effectively. They don’t want to get stuck throwing on third-and-eight all afternoon. The offensive line has been better opening holes than protecting in obvious passing situations. If Auburn can run for four or five yards on first down, it’ll be fine. If not, this could be another long afternoon for that offense.
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Mississippi State Has Been Better Moving the Ball Than Scoring
Mississippi State is 4-5 after losing to Vanderbilt on November 7. The Bulldogs have had a rough stretch, and their defense has been giving up too many points. Alabama hung 56 on them earlier this season. That’s ugly, no getting around it. But Auburn isn’t Alabama offensively. The Tigers haven’t been the kind of team that can just walk onto the field and score 40 without breaking a sweat.
Mississippi State has been averaging around 27 points a game and allowing about 28. The Bulldogs have actually moved the ball reasonably well, especially on the ground. The trouble has been finishing drives. They’ll get into good field position, then settle for a field goal or make a mistake that kills the possession. That can’t keep happening. Auburn’s defense is good enough to make those mistakes hurt.
What I want to see from Mississippi State is a commitment to running the football. Auburn has had some problems stopping the run, and the Bulldogs have enough ability up front to make that interesting. The offensive line doesn’t need to dominate. Just give the backs a little room and keep the offense out of obvious passing situations. Mississippi State has been much more comfortable when it can mix things up instead of asking the quarterback to rescue every drive.
Auburn vs Mississippi State Picks and Prediction
Spread Pick: Mississippi State +3.5
I’m taking Mississippi State and the 3.5 points. Look, Auburn might be the better team. I wouldn’t argue too hard with somebody who thinks the Tigers win this game. But would I trust Auburn’s offense to go into Starkville and win by more than a field goal? Not really.
Mississippi State can run the ball, and Auburn hasn’t always been great at stopping it. That gives the Bulldogs a way to keep drives alive and avoid putting everything on the passing game. Auburn’s defense is capable of taking over, and that’s the part that worries me. But the Tigers haven’t been consistent enough offensively to justify laying this number. I think we’re looking at a game decided by a field goal, maybe even a Mississippi State win.
Total Pick: Over 49.5
I’ll go over 49.5. Neither team has an offense I’d call explosive, but we’re not asking for 65 points here. Auburn has been allowing roughly 27 a game. Mississippi State is giving up around 28. Those defenses have been giving opponents opportunities, and I think both teams can take advantage.
Auburn should be able to run against Mississippi State, and the Bulldogs have a chance to do the same thing against the Tigers. That could mean some long drives, which isn’t always great for an over. But if both teams finish those drives with touchdowns instead of field goals, we don’t need a wild shootout. A 27-24 game gets us there. The biggest danger is both offenses stalling inside the 20, which has happened too often. I’ll take my chances with the over.
Final Picks: Mississippi State +3.5 | Over 49.5
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