Ball State vs Liberty Picks and Prediction for Saturday, September 19, 2026
The Ball State Cardinals visit the Liberty Flames on Saturday at Williams Stadium in Lynchburg, with the opening kickoff scheduled for 4:00 PM ET on ESPN+. Ball State is 1-1 overall and 0-0 in the MAC after beating Stony Brook 41-17, bouncing back from a 56-3 road loss to Ohio State. Liberty is 1-1 overall and 0-0 in Conference USA after beating Gardner-Webb 24-23, following a 20-13 road loss to James Madison. Check out Saturday’s matchup with our free NCAAF picks.
Ball State Cardinals
Ball State has scored 44 points through two games while averaging 188 passing yards and 135.5 rushing yards per game. Keldric Luster has completed 45 of 65 passes for 345 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions. The Cardinals have spread the passing production across several targets, with Jabari Smith leading the group at 72 yards and one touchdown. Jamarion McDougle has 68 receiving yards, while Donovan Hamilton has 51. TJ Horton has led the rushing attack with 129 yards and a touchdown on 15 carries.
The Cardinals have allowed 36.5 points per game, although 56 of the 73 points allowed came against Ohio State. Ball State has recorded four sacks and three interceptions through two games. Kamron Chamble has two interceptions, while Cedric Franklin II has the other. Anthony Pinnace and Jared Badie have one sack apiece, and Sterling Smith leads the defense with 11 total tackles. Kaleb Stewart has added 10 tackles and half a sack.
Injuries: TE C. Coonrod, WR D. Talbert and RB C. Breveard are questionable with undisclosed injuries.
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Liberty Flames
Liberty has scored 37 points through two games while averaging 208 passing yards and 142 rushing yards per contest. Deshawn Purdie has completed 23 of 44 passes for 352 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions, while Jaylen Henderson has added 64 passing yards and a touchdown. Makai Jackson has been Liberty's top receiving threat with 142 yards and two scores on five catches. Kam Davis leads the rushing attack with 118 yards, while Peyton Jones has added 101 yards on 22 carries.
The Flames have allowed 43 points through their first two games, holding James Madison to 20 before giving up 23 against Gardner-Webb. Brenton Williams has recorded a sack, a forced fumble and nine tackles, while Nathan Pirolli and Mike Jarvis have each contributed half a sack. Derrell Farrar leads Liberty with 12 tackles, and D-Icey Hopkins has 11. Jayden Davis and Ronald Moore Jr. have each recorded an interception. Liberty has also forced two fumbles.
Injuries: RB J. Marshall (leg) is questionable.
Ball State vs Liberty Prediction
Liberty has the advantage at home, but the Flames have not produced much scoring through two games. Purdie has protected the football with no interceptions, and Jackson gives Liberty a big-play option in the passing game. Ball State has more scoring production after putting up 41 against Stony Brook, while Horton gives the Cardinals a dangerous runner averaging 8.6 yards per carry. Liberty will rely on its ground game and a defense that has allowed 21.5 points per game. Ball State can keep this matchup close, but Liberty has enough offensive balance to take control late and earn its second straight victory. Final Score Prediction: Liberty Flames win, but Ball State Cardinals cover, 27-20.
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