California vs SMU Picks and Predictions for Saturday October 24 2026
Cal just got beat 41-7 by Wake Forest. At home. And now the Golden Bears have to get on a plane and fly to Dallas to play an SMU team that’s won five of six. That’s not exactly how I’d want to spend the week after getting embarrassed. California visits SMU at Gerald J. Ford Stadium on Saturday, October 24, 2026. Kickoff is at noon ET on The CW. SMU is favored by 17.5 points, which is a pretty big number for a conference game, but you can understand why the Mustangs are getting that much respect. They just beat Virginia 23-13, while Cal couldn’t get anything going against Wake Forest. Check out our free college football picks for more predictions.
California Has A Quarterback Problem
Cal is 3-4, and the Golden Bears are coming off their worst loss of the season. Wake Forest went into Berkeley Saturday night and won 41-7. The Demon Deacons scored 41 points before Cal finally got on the board late. That’s a long night for everybody wearing blue and gold. Cal had beaten Virginia Tech 25-20 the previous week, so there was at least some reason to think the Bears were improving. Then Saturday happened. Now they’re below .500 and heading across the country to face a ranked SMU team. Not a great spot.
The Golden Bears managed only 266 yards against Wake Forest. That’s not going to cut it against anybody, much less a team that just held Virginia to 13 points. Cal couldn’t sustain drives, couldn’t keep Wake Forest from making big plays, and spent most of the night chasing the game. The defense was supposed to be one of the better parts of this team, but giving up 41 at home raises some questions. SMU isn’t necessarily going to score 50, but the Mustangs have enough offense to make Cal pay if the Bears keep missing tackles and losing assignments.
The quarterback situation is a mess. Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele was medically cleared after a concussion, but Cal started Jackson Brousseau against Wake Forest. That didn’t work. Sagapolutele eventually came in and threw the team’s only touchdown pass. Coach Tosh Lupoi has called the position an open competition, which is probably the last thing you want to hear heading into a road game against SMU. Cal needs somebody to take control of the offense. It also needs better protection and a running game that can keep the Mustangs from teeing off on the quarterback. Right now, I don’t know if the Bears have any of that.
Sign Up Get $30 Premium Picks Credit + Exclusive Offers
Subscribe Now
SMU Has Been Getting The Job Done
SMU is 5-1, and the Mustangs just beat Virginia 23-13 in Dallas. It wasn’t a particularly pretty game, but they controlled enough of it to win comfortably. SMU finished with 404 yards of offense and held Virginia to 258. That’s a solid afternoon against an ACC opponent. The Mustangs are 3-0 at home, and they’ve been getting better as the season goes along. They’re not blowing everybody out, but they’re winning. That’s what matters in October.
The Mustangs have been doing a good job controlling games with their defense. Virginia managed only 137 passing yards Saturday, and SMU kept the Cavaliers from getting anything going in the fourth quarter. The offense was a little inconsistent, especially on third down, where SMU converted only four of thirteen attempts. That’s something I’d want cleaned up before facing Cal. But the Mustangs did convert four of five fourth-down attempts, which helped keep drives alive. Against a Cal defense that just got shredded by Wake Forest, SMU should have plenty of chances to move the ball.
SMU’s quarterback play has been steady enough to keep the offense moving, and the Mustangs have been getting contributions from their running game. They ran for 158 yards against Virginia and threw for 246. That’s a good balance. The defense has been making opponents work for points, and Cal’s quarterback uncertainty should make that job easier. SMU doesn’t need to do anything spectacular here. It needs to protect the football, get ahead early, and make Cal prove it can score. After watching the Golden Bears against Wake Forest, I’m not convinced they can.
California vs SMU Picks and Predictions
SMU -17.5 (-110)
I’m laying the 17.5 with SMU. That’s a big number, and I usually don’t love giving away nearly three touchdowns in a conference game. But Cal looked awful against Wake Forest, and now the Bears have to travel to Dallas with their quarterback situation unsettled. SMU has been playing better football, especially defensively, and I think the Mustangs can make Cal’s offense miserable. The danger is SMU getting conservative with a big lead and allowing a late touchdown. That happens all the time. But I think the Mustangs have enough offense to score in the 30s, and I’m not sure Cal gets out of the teens. Give me SMU.
Under 51.5 Points
I’m going under 51.5. SMU’s defense just held Virginia to 13 points, and Cal scored only seven against Wake Forest. The Golden Bears have been having trouble moving the football, and the quarterback uncertainty isn’t helping. SMU should score, but the Mustangs don’t need to play at a frantic pace if they get ahead. The concern is Cal’s defense. It just allowed 41, and SMU could do the same if the Bears don’t improve. But I think SMU controls the game, runs the football, and keeps Cal from getting many easy points. Something like 34-10 sounds about right. Give me the under.
Final Picks: SMU -17.5 (-110) and Under 51.5 Points
This article was completed on October 18, 2026. Betting lines, injuries, and game-time weather may change before Saturday’s kickoff.
Betting on College Football?
- Bet with other College Football fans at the best sportsbooks
- Sign up today and get started with the latest college football sportsbook promos
Up To $1500 in Bonus Bets Paid Back if your First Bet Does Not Win
New Users – Get $350 in Bonus Bets when you wager $5 for 7 days
New DraftKings Customers: Bet $5, Get $200 + 3 Months of NBA League Pass!
