Colorado State vs Texas State Picks and Predictions for Thursday October 15 2026
The Colorado State Rams visit the Texas State Bobcats at UFCU Stadium in San Marcos, Texas, on Thursday, October 15, 2026. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00 PM ET. Both teams enter with 2-3 records and are looking to recover from recent defeats in their first season as Pac-12 conference opponents. Colorado State suffered a 56-26 loss against Oregon State on October 3, while Texas State fell 31-29 against San Diego State that same evening. Texas State is favored by 11.5 points at DraftKings in an October 9 market listing, with the Bobcats at -455 on the moneyline and Colorado State at +350. The total is set at 67.5 points. Be sure to check out our free college football picks for more predictions throughout the season.
Colorado State Rams Have Struggled to Contain Opposing Offenses
Colorado State opened the season with consecutive victories, defeating Wyoming 35-13 before overwhelming Southern Utah 58-24. Those performances generated some early optimism, particularly about the Rams’ ability to create scoring opportunities. However, the schedule became considerably more difficult, and Colorado State has lost three consecutive games against BYU, UTSA, and Oregon State. The Rams have surrendered at least 41 points in each defeat, placing considerable pressure on an offense that has produced encouraging numbers of its own.
Colorado State has scored 187 points through five games, averaging 37.4 per contest. That offensive production is impressive, although the Rams have also allowed 193 points, an average of 38.6. Their recent 59-45 loss against UTSA demonstrated both extremes. Colorado State generated enough offense to remain competitive in a high-scoring contest but couldn’t contain an opposing attack that repeatedly created big plays. The same defensive problems appeared against Oregon State, which scored 56 points and established control during a convincing victory.
Thursday presents another difficult defensive challenge against a Texas State team capable of generating substantial offensive production. The Rams have demonstrated enough scoring ability to remain competitive, but preventing explosive plays will be essential. Colorado State also needs to establish a more effective rushing attack to control possession and limit the number of opportunities available to Texas State. The Rams have been involved in high-scoring contests throughout the season, and another defensive struggle could create a difficult evening in San Marcos.
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Texas State Bobcats Looking to Protect Their Home Field
Texas State enters Thursday at 2-3 following a disappointing 31-29 defeat against San Diego State. The Bobcats opened the season with a difficult 59-7 loss to Texas before falling 31-26 against UTSA. However, they responded with consecutive victories, defeating North Texas 49-35 before overwhelming Incarnate Word 63-10. Those performances demonstrated the considerable offensive potential Texas State possesses when its rushing and passing attacks are working effectively.
The Bobcats have scored 174 points through five games, averaging 34.8 per contest, while allowing 166, or 33.2 per game. Texas State’s offense has been particularly effective against opponents unable to contain explosive plays, as demonstrated by the 49-point performance against North Texas and the 63-point outburst against Incarnate Word. However, the Bobcats have also struggled defensively, allowing at least 31 points in four of their five games. That vulnerability creates opportunities for a Colorado State team that has demonstrated considerable offensive production.
Playing at UFCU Stadium should provide Texas State with an advantage, particularly against a Rams team that has struggled defensively during its recent losing streak. The Bobcats have won two of their three home games and should be capable of establishing offensive pressure early. However, Texas State cannot afford to overlook Colorado State’s attacking potential. The Rams have scored at least 23 points in every game, including 45 against UTSA, and their ability to create scoring opportunities could make covering a double-digit spread more difficult than the overall records suggest.
Colorado State vs Texas State Picks and Predictions
Pick: Colorado State Rams +11.5 (-110)
I’m taking Colorado State with the 11.5 points. Texas State deserves respect for its offensive production and home-field advantage, but the Bobcats have allowed at least 31 points in four of their five games. That defensive inconsistency creates an opportunity for a Colorado State offense averaging more than 37 points per contest. The Rams have struggled defensively themselves, making Texas State the more likely straight-up winner, but asking the Bobcats to win by nearly two touchdowns against an opponent capable of generating substantial offensive production feels expensive. Colorado State has already demonstrated the ability to remain competitive in high-scoring games, including its 59-45 defeat against UTSA. The Rams don’t need to control the matchup to cover. They need to sustain enough drives to prevent Texas State from creating a comfortable advantage.
Pick: Over 67.5 Points (-110)
The Over 67.5 is the total pick. Colorado State has scored 187 points while allowing 193 through five games, and all five of its contests have finished above their posted totals. Texas State has also demonstrated considerable offensive production, averaging 34.8 points while allowing 33.2. Both teams have experienced defensive difficulties against opponents capable of generating explosive plays, making a high-scoring contest a reasonable expectation. Colorado State’s recent games against UTSA and Oregon State produced 104 and 82 combined points, respectively, while Texas State has participated in several contests featuring substantial offensive production. Neither defense has demonstrated the consistency necessary to inspire confidence in a low-scoring outcome. A 41-34 or 42-35 result is realistic, making the Over the preferred selection.
Final Picks: Colorado State Rams +11.5 (-110) and Over 67.5 Points (-110)
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