East Carolina vs Memphis Picks and Predictions for Thursday October 22 2026
I still can’t believe how East Carolina lost Thursday night. The Pirates had UAB backed up at its own four-yard line, leading 17-9 with less than two minutes left. Ninety-six yards to go. Game over, right? Nope. UAB marched down the field, scored, got the two-point conversion, and then won 30-17 in overtime. That’s a brutal way to lose a football game. Now East Carolina has to head to Memphis and try to forget about it. The Pirates and Tigers meet Thursday, October 22, 2026, at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium in Memphis, Tennessee. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 PM ET. Memphis is favored by 10.5 points, with the total at 53.5. The Tigers are coming off a 31-17 loss to Tulane, so neither team is feeling particularly good about last week. Somebody’s going to get a much-needed win here. Check out our free college football picks for more predictions throughout the season.
East Carolina Has To Forget About UAB
East Carolina is 3-3, and the Pirates had won three straight before that disaster against UAB. They beat Old Dominion 20-17, North Carolina Central 42-9, and Rice 28-12. Nothing wrong with that stretch. Then came Thursday night. East Carolina led UAB 17-9 late in the fourth quarter and somehow lost by 13. That’s not easy to do. The Pirates had the game in their hands, and they let it get away. Now they’ve got a short week to get ready for a Memphis team that’s been scoring a lot of points. I don’t envy the coaching staff trying to get everybody’s heads back in the right place.
The Pirates have been better defensively than offensively. They’ve held three opponents to 17 points or fewer, and that was supposed to be enough against UAB. But the offense hasn’t been doing much lately. East Carolina managed only 126 passing yards Thursday, and the Pirates couldn’t put the game away when they had the chance. They’ve scored 17 or fewer in three of their six games, and that’s a problem against Memphis. The Tigers have one of the better offenses in the American Conference, and I don’t see East Carolina winning a game where it has to score 35. The Pirates need to run the football, control the clock, and keep Memphis from getting too many possessions.
Quarterback Mitch Griffis has thrown for 424 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions, but the passing game hasn’t been consistent. East Carolina has been relying on its defense and running game to keep things close. That worked against Rice and Old Dominion, but Memphis is a different kind of opponent. The Pirates need more explosive plays, and they need to protect the football. The interception returned for a touchdown in overtime against UAB was the final insult in a game they should have won. If East Carolina starts giving Memphis extra possessions, this could get ugly quickly.
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Memphis Needs To Get Back On Track
Memphis is 5-2, and the Tigers had won three straight before losing 31-17 at Tulane on Friday. That was a disappointing result, especially considering how well the offense had been playing. Memphis scored 59 against Charlotte and 38 against UAB, then managed only 17 against Tulane. That’s quite a drop. The Tigers are back home now, where they’ve been much more comfortable, and I expect a better offensive performance Thursday. East Carolina has a decent defense, but Memphis has more weapons than the Pirates have been facing lately.
The Tigers have piled up 3,482 yards of offense through seven games. That’s nearly 500 yards per game. They’ve also thrown 20 touchdown passes, one of the better totals in the country. That’s a lot of production, and it gives Memphis a pretty big advantage over East Carolina. The Tigers can move the ball through the air and on the ground, and they’ve been particularly dangerous when they get into space. East Carolina has been keeping scores down, but I don’t know how long the Pirates can do that against this offense. Memphis needs to avoid the mistakes that hurt it against Tulane, but the matchup is certainly favorable.
Marcus Stokes has thrown for 1,841 yards with 18 touchdowns and six interceptions. That’s a pretty good season so far. Jaylin Carter has rushed for 645 yards and eight touchdowns, giving Memphis a dangerous ground game to go with its passing attack. Those two have been carrying a lot of the offensive load, and East Carolina is going to have trouble accounting for both. The Tigers also have several receivers capable of making big plays. Brady Kluse was available for the Tulane game after dealing with an undisclosed injury, so that’s encouraging for the receiving corps. Memphis needs to get its offense back into rhythm, and I think playing at home against a team coming off a heartbreaking loss is a pretty good opportunity.
East Carolina vs Memphis Picks and Predictions
Memphis -10.5 (-109)
I’m taking Memphis, and I know 10.5 points is a fairly big number. East Carolina has been playing decent defense, and the Pirates have already shown they can win games when they keep the score down. That’s what worries me. But Memphis has too much offense for me to ignore. The Tigers are averaging nearly 500 yards per game, and they’ve got a quarterback who’s thrown 18 touchdown passes. East Carolina just had a game stolen from it in the final two minutes, and now the Pirates have to turn around and play on the road. That’s a tough spot. Memphis is coming off a loss, too, and I expect the Tigers to be pretty motivated. I can see Memphis getting ahead early and making East Carolina throw more than it wants to. Give me the Tigers to cover.
Under 53.5 Points (-110)
I’m going under 53.5, and this one is a little tricky. Memphis can score 40 if everything is clicking, and that’s obviously a concern. But East Carolina has been keeping games pretty low-scoring, and the Pirates aren’t exactly lighting up the scoreboard themselves. They scored 17 against UAB, 28 against Rice, and 20 against Old Dominion. Memphis could win this game 34-14 or 35-17, and we’d still be under. The danger is the Tigers getting a couple of short fields or East Carolina finding some offense late. But I think the Pirates are going to try to slow the game down, run the football, and keep Memphis off the field. That’s their best chance. I’ll take the under.
Final Picks: Memphis -10.5 (-109) and Under 53.5 Points (-110)
This article was completed on October 18, 2026. Betting lines, player availability, and weather forecasts may change before Thursday’s kickoff.
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