Florida vs Texas Picks and Predictions for Saturday October 17 2026
The Florida Gators visit the Texas Longhorns at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin, Texas, on Saturday, October 17, 2026. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00 PM ET, with coverage on ABC or ESPN. Both teams enter looking to recover from disappointing rivalry losses, with Florida falling 38-19 against South Carolina and Texas suffering a stunning 27-24 defeat against Oklahoma. The Longhorns were ranked No. 1 entering the Red River Rivalry but couldn’t protect a second-half advantage. Texas is favored by 9.5 points in an available betting market, with the total set at 53.5 points. Be sure to check out our free college football picks for more predictions throughout the season.
Florida Gators Looking to End Their Losing Streak
Florida enters Saturday at 4-2 overall after consecutive SEC defeats against Missouri and South Carolina. The Gators opened their season with considerable promise, winning their first four contests before suffering a 45-17 loss at Missouri. Saturday’s 38-19 defeat against South Carolina continued the disappointing stretch, leaving Florida searching for a more complete performance. The Gators have now surrendered 83 points during their last two games, an uncomfortable development heading into another difficult road matchup.
The most concerning aspect of Florida’s recent performances has been the inability to contain opposing offenses once they establish momentum. South Carolina repeatedly created scoring opportunities Saturday, taking advantage of defensive breakdowns and forcing Florida to chase the game. The Gators also struggled against Missouri, where they couldn’t prevent sustained rushing production and allowed the Tigers to build a comfortable advantage. Florida has demonstrated enough offensive ability to compete with quality opponents, but its defense needs to provide considerably more resistance.
Saturday also presents an opportunity to exploit a Texas team that experienced its own disappointing performance against Oklahoma. Florida defeated the Longhorns 29-21 last season, demonstrating that it can challenge this opponent when its defensive structure remains organized. However, playing in Austin is different from hosting Texas, particularly after consecutive difficult losses. The Gators need to establish their rushing attack, limit turnovers, and avoid allowing another opponent to build an early advantage. Florida has enough offensive talent to remain competitive, but defensive improvement is essential.
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Texas Longhorns Need to Recover From Red River Disappointment
Texas enters Saturday at 4-1 following its first defeat of the season, a heartbreaking 27-24 loss against Oklahoma. The Longhorns appeared to have control after establishing a 17-7 halftime advantage, but their offense struggled during the second half while Oklahoma gradually recovered. Texas eventually surrendered the lead on a field goal as time expired, ending its undefeated start and raising questions about its ability to finish games against determined opponents.
The most troubling development against Oklahoma was the lack of second-half offensive production. Texas managed just 41 yards and one first down after halftime, allowing the Sooners to remain competitive despite trailing by double digits earlier. The Longhorns also committed costly turnovers during the fourth quarter, including an interception that provided Oklahoma with the opportunity to set up the winning field goal. Those mistakes proved particularly damaging because Texas had demonstrated enough defensive ability to win the contest with more disciplined offensive execution.
Returning to DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium should provide an important advantage. Texas has won its first three home games, and the Longhorns should benefit from facing a Florida defense that has struggled against its last two opponents. However, Texas cannot assume Florida’s recent defensive difficulties guarantee a comfortable victory. The Gators defeated the Longhorns last season and possess enough offensive ability to capitalize on mistakes. Texas needs a considerably more productive rushing attack and must avoid the turnovers that contributed to Saturday’s collapse.
Florida vs Texas Picks and Predictions
Pick: Florida Gators +9.5
I’m taking Florida with the 9.5 points. The Gators have been disappointing during consecutive defeats, but Texas enters with legitimate offensive concerns following its second-half collapse against Oklahoma. The Longhorns managed only 41 yards after halftime and struggled to establish any sustained offensive rhythm. Florida’s defensive problems make supporting the road underdog uncomfortable, although the Gators have demonstrated enough offensive ability to remain competitive when their rushing attack is productive. Texas should benefit from returning home and may ultimately secure the victory, but expecting the Longhorns to win comfortably after such a frustrating offensive performance feels optimistic. Florida has an opportunity to keep this contest within one possession if it limits turnovers and prevents Texas from establishing an early advantage.
Pick: Under 53.5 Points
The Under 53.5 is the total pick. Florida has struggled defensively during its last two games, but Texas hasn’t consistently demonstrated the offensive efficiency needed to take full advantage. The Longhorns scored 24 against Oklahoma and experienced an extended second-half scoring drought, while Florida managed only 19 against South Carolina. Both teams should emphasize ball security after recent disappointing performances, particularly Texas, which suffered costly fourth-quarter turnovers against Oklahoma. The Longhorns may attempt to establish their rushing attack and control possession rather than turning the contest into an open offensive exchange. A 27-20 or 30-20 Texas victory is realistic, making the Under the preferred total.
Final Picks: Florida Gators +9.5 and Under 53.5 Points
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