Iowa vs Minnesota Picks and Predictions for Saturday October 24 2026
Iowa and Minnesota are playing for Floyd of Rosedale again, and if you’re expecting the Hawkeyes to throw it 50 times, you probably haven’t watched much Iowa football. But here’s something you might not expect. Iowa went out to Washington in its last game and scored 41 points. Forty-one! And the Hawkeyes actually threw three touchdown passes. Kirk Ferentz must have wondered what somebody put in the water bottles. Now Iowa heads to Minneapolis to face Minnesota on Saturday, October 24, 2026. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 PM ET on FS1 from Huntington Bank Stadium. Iowa is favored by 4.5 points at DraftKings, with the total sitting at 42.5. Minnesota had a week off after getting hammered by Purdue, and I imagine that wasn’t a particularly pleasant film session. The early weather outlook needs another check closer to kickoff, especially the wind and gusts. Check out our free college football picks for more predictions throughout the season.
Iowa Has Found A Little Offense
Iowa is 5-1, and the Hawkeyes have been playing some good football. Their only loss came against Ohio State, and there’s no shame in that. They beat Michigan 20-19 in Ann Arbor, then went to Washington and won 41-24 on October 9. That’s two impressive road victories. The Hawkeyes have had a bye week since the Washington game, so they should be rested and ready for Minnesota. Iowa also beat the Gophers 41-3 last season. I don’t think anybody in that locker room has forgotten how well that game went. The Hawkeyes have won the last two meetings, and they’d love to bring that pig trophy back to Iowa City again.
The offense has been better than usual, and the Washington game was a good example. Iowa jumped ahead 27-0 in the first half, ran the ball effectively, and actually made some big plays through the air. The Hawkeyes rushed for more than 200 yards, and their quarterback threw three touchdown passes. That’s not something we’ve always been able to say about Iowa. The defense has been good, too. Washington managed only three points in the first half before getting some late offense going. Minnesota just gave up 305 rushing yards to Purdue. Three hundred and five! That’s the number I’d be looking at if I were Iowa’s offensive coordinator. Why get fancy when the other team has been having that much trouble stopping the run?
Jeremy Hecklinski made his first career start against Washington and completed 14 of 19 passes for 202 yards and three touchdowns. No interceptions. That’s a pretty good debut, especially on the road. Kamari Moulton ran for 208 yards and two touchdowns, and DJ Vonnahme also scored twice. Iowa has been getting more production from its offensive line, and that’s making life easier for whoever plays quarterback. The Hawkeyes don’t need to throw for 350 yards. They need to run the ball, keep the chains moving, and avoid giving Minnesota extra possessions. If Hecklinski can play anywhere near as well as he did at Washington, Iowa is going to be tough to beat.
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Minnesota Needs To Fix Its Run Defense
Minnesota is 4-2, and the Gophers have had a pretty strange season. They beat Michigan 20-14, which was a big win, then went to Purdue and got blown out 41-13. That’s quite a turnaround. Minnesota had won three straight before the Purdue game, including victories over Akron, Washington, and Michigan. The Gophers are 3-0 at home, so at least they’ve been taking care of business in Minneapolis. But that Purdue loss was ugly. Minnesota got pushed around up front, couldn’t run the football, and spent most of the afternoon trying to catch up. Now Iowa comes to town with a running game that’s been getting better. Not exactly ideal.
The numbers from the Purdue game are hard to ignore. Minnesota allowed 305 rushing yards and 464 total yards. The Gophers managed only 27 rushing yards themselves. Twenty-seven! That’s not going to win many Big Ten games. Minnesota’s offense had 275 total yards, and the defense couldn’t get off the field. Purdue controlled the football for more than 37 minutes. Iowa would love to do the same thing. The Hawkeyes aren’t going to hurry if they’re picking up five or six yards every time they hand it off. Minnesota needs to tackle better, win some battles at the line of scrimmage, and force Iowa into obvious passing situations. Otherwise, this could turn into a long afternoon.
Drake Lindsey has thrown for 1,335 yards this season, and the Gophers have been getting some useful production from the passing game. Javon Tracy has 375 receiving yards, while TJ Thomas leads the rushing attack with 317. Those aren’t bad numbers, but Minnesota needs more from its running game against Iowa. The Hawkeyes have been pretty good at making teams one-dimensional, and Lindsey isn’t going to enjoy throwing on third-and-long all afternoon. Minnesota also needs better defensive line play. Purdue’s backs had far too much room, and Iowa’s offensive line is capable of creating the same problems. The Gophers have had an extra week to work on it. We’ll find out whether that was enough.
Iowa vs Minnesota Picks and Predictions
Iowa -4.5 (-110)
I’m laying the 4.5 with Iowa. Minnesota has been good at home, and I don’t dismiss that Michigan win. But the Gophers just gave up 305 rushing yards to Purdue, and now they’re facing a team that ran for more than 200 against Washington. That’s a bad matchup. Iowa has also been playing better on the road than Minnesota has been playing overall. The Hawkeyes beat Michigan in Ann Arbor and put 41 on Washington. Minnesota’s defense has to prove it can stop the run before I’m willing to back the Gophers against this offense. The concern is Iowa’s quarterback situation. Hecklinski played well in his first start, but one good game doesn’t make him a sure thing. Still, I think Iowa controls the line of scrimmage and wins by a touchdown or so. Give me the Hawkeyes.
Under 42.5 Points (-110)
I’m taking the under, although I’ll admit Minnesota’s run defense makes me a little nervous. Iowa could put up 30 if the Gophers tackle like they did against Purdue. But this is still a rivalry game, and both teams know each other pretty well. Iowa isn’t going to rush to the line and throw it all over the field if the running game is working. The Hawkeyes will be happy to take six minutes off the clock and kick a field goal. Minnesota, meanwhile, has been struggling to establish its own ground game. That could make scoring difficult against Iowa’s defense. The danger is a couple of short fields or a defensive touchdown. But I think the Hawkeyes slow this thing down and win something like 24-14. I’ll take the under.
Final Picks: Iowa -4.5 (-110) and Under 42.5 Points (-110)
This article was completed on October 18, 2026. Betting odds, quarterback availability, and game-time weather forecasts may change before Saturday’s kickoff.
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