Liberty vs Kennesaw State Picks and Predictions for Thursday October 22 2026
I don’t know what Kennesaw State did to upset the football gods, but somebody ought to apologize. The Owls keep getting close to winning games, and then something goes wrong. Last Wednesday, they lost 24-21 to Missouri State on a field goal as time expired. That’s a tough way to lose, especially when you’ve already had a miserable season. Now Liberty comes to town. The Flames visit Fifth Third Stadium in Kennesaw, Georgia, on Thursday, October 22, 2026. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00 PM ET on CBS Sports Network. Liberty is favored by 9.5 points, with the total at 47.5. The Flames are 5-1, Kennesaw State is 1-5, and you’d think this would be pretty straightforward. But those Owls have been covering spreads even while losing games. That’s worth remembering before laying nearly ten points. Check out our free college football picks for more predictions throughout the season.
Liberty Has Been Winning Football Games
Liberty is 5-1, and the Flames have been playing some pretty good football since losing their opener to James Madison. They lost that game 20-13, then bounced back with wins over Gardner-Webb, Ball State, and several Conference USA opponents. The Flames scored 51 against Ball State, which showed what the offense can do when everything is clicking. They’ve also been getting better defensively, and that’s probably the biggest difference between Liberty and Kennesaw State right now. The Flames aren’t perfect, but they’ve been finding ways to win.
Liberty’s offense has been able to move the football both on the ground and through the air. The Flames have enough balance to keep defenses guessing, and they’ve been particularly dangerous when they get into the red zone. Their defense has also been making opponents work for points. Kennesaw State scored only 21 against Missouri State, and that’s a team that had been giving up plenty of yards. Liberty should be able to get pressure up front and force the Owls into some difficult third downs. The one thing I’d watch is whether Liberty can get ahead early. Kennesaw State has been playing close games, and the Flames don’t want to let the Owls hang around into the fourth quarter.
Liberty has been getting solid quarterback play and useful production from its running backs. The Flames don’t need one player to carry the offense, and that’s been a big advantage. Their offensive line has been opening holes in the running game, and the passing attack has been good enough to punish teams that load the box. Injuries are always worth checking on a short week, but Liberty hasn’t been dealing with the kind of widespread problems that would completely change this matchup. The Flames need to protect the football and avoid giving Kennesaw State any easy opportunities. If they do that, they should be in pretty good shape.
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Kennesaw State Keeps Coming Up Short
Kennesaw State is 1-5, and the Owls have lost five straight. The frustrating part is that several of those losses have been close. Last Wednesday, they went to Missouri State and lost 24-21 on a field goal as time expired. Kennesaw State had chances to win that game, too. The Owls scored touchdowns in each of the final three quarters, but they couldn’t get the last stop they needed. Missouri State drove down the field in the final six minutes and kicked the winner. That’s the kind of loss that sticks with you. Kennesaw State has been competitive enough to cover four of its six games, but that doesn’t make the standings look any better.
The Owls haven’t been getting enough offense. Against Missouri State, they managed 21 points and struggled to run the ball consistently. The Bears held them to 77 rushing yards, and that’s a problem for a team that wants to establish the ground game. Kennesaw State’s defense has been keeping games close, but it can’t spend the whole night on the field. Missouri State had 421 yards and 26 first downs last week. Liberty is a better team than Missouri State, so the Owls need to make some improvements in a hurry. If Kennesaw State can’t get off the field on third down, Liberty is going to control the clock and wear them down.
The Owls have been getting some good individual efforts, but the offense hasn’t been consistent enough to turn those performances into wins. Quarterback play has been uneven, and the running game needs to be better. Kennesaw State also needs to finish drives. Too many times this season, the Owls have moved the ball into scoring position and come away with nothing. That’s not going to work against Liberty. The home crowd should help, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Kennesaw State plays with some desperation after that Missouri State loss. But the Owls have to prove they can finish a game before I’m willing to trust them outright.
Liberty vs Kennesaw State Picks and Predictions
Kennesaw State +9.5 (-102)
I’m taking the points with Kennesaw State. Yeah, I know. One win in six games isn’t exactly inspiring. But the Owls have been keeping games close, and they’ve covered four of their six spreads. Liberty is the better team, and I expect the Flames to win. But nine and a half points is a lot when the favorite hasn’t always been blowing teams out. Kennesaw State just lost by three to Missouri State, and the Owls have shown they can hang around even when things aren’t going well. The danger is Liberty getting ahead early and forcing Kennesaw State to throw the football. That could turn ugly. But I think the Owls keep this close enough to cover. Give me Kennesaw State and the points.
Under 47.5 Points (-108)
I’m going under 47.5. Kennesaw State has been struggling offensively, and Liberty’s defense should be able to make life difficult. The Owls scored 21 against Missouri State, and I don’t see them suddenly putting up 35 against the Flames. Liberty can score, but the Flames don’t need to turn this into a shootout. They can run the football, control the clock, and make Kennesaw State chase the game. The one thing that bothers me is the possibility of a couple of turnovers giving Liberty short fields. That’s how an under gets ruined in a hurry. But if Kennesaw State can keep the game close and slow things down, I think we’re looking at something like 27-17 or 28-17. I’ll take the under.
Final Picks: Kennesaw State +9.5 (-102) and Under 47.5 Points (-108)
This article was completed on October 18, 2026. Betting lines, injury reports, and weather forecasts may change before Thursday’s kickoff.
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