Mercyhurst Lakers vs New Mexico State Aggies Picks and Prediction for Saturday, September 5, 2026
The Mercyhurst Lakers visit the New Mexico State Aggies on Saturday at 9:00 p.m. ET at Aggie Memorial Stadium in Las Cruces on ESPN+. Mercyhurst is 0-1 after opening 2026 with a 43-10 road loss to Youngstown State. New Mexico State begins its season after finishing 4-8 overall in 2025, closing with a 31-24 overtime loss to Middle Tennessee after beating UTEP 34-31 the previous week. The Aggies are 24.5-point home favorites, with the total set at 50.5 points. Find your opening-week betting angle with our free NCAAF picks.
Mercyhurst Lakers Preview
Mercyhurst struggled to move the ball against No. 9 FCS Youngstown State, finishing with only 10 points. Quarterback Alex Gevaudan completed 18 of 31 passes for 212 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions. Jameir Gamble managed 36 yards on nine carries, while Camden Lewis led the Lakers with 44 receiving yards. Mercyhurst crossed midfield only once before the middle of the fourth quarter, with its lone touchdown coming after a blocked punt created favorable field position.
The Lakers also had problems containing Youngstown State's balanced attack. Mercyhurst allowed 484 total yards, including 252 on the ground. Youngstown State quarterback Beau Brungard accounted for 351 total yards and five touchdowns. Teddy McDuffie Jr. recorded 1.5 sacks and Braylon Beckwith had 11 tackles, but Mercyhurst now faces another road game against an FBS opponent with several new offensive options.
New Mexico State Aggies Preview
New Mexico State is looking for more production after rushing for only 927 yards and 2.6 yards per carry last season. Furman transfer Trey Hedden enters the quarterback competition after throwing for nearly 3,000 yards and 17 touchdowns, while Adam Damante completed 67% of his passes in a backup role last year. Delaware State transfer James Jones adds a major rushing option after producing 958 yards and nine touchdowns while averaging nearly 10 yards per carry.
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The Aggies created 24 takeaways in 2025 and forced at least one turnover in every game. Linebacker Tory Gethers returns after recording 93 tackles, three interceptions and four forced fumbles, while safety Bernock Iya had four interceptions and 53 tackles. New Mexico State needs to replace significant production along the defensive front, but that experienced back seven has a favorable matchup against a Mercyhurst offense that threw two interceptions in its opener.
Mercyhurst Lakers vs New Mexico State Aggies Prediction
Mercyhurst's opening performance creates major concerns entering another road matchup. The Lakers struggled to establish the run, committed two turnovers and allowed 43 points against an FCS opponent. New Mexico State's ability to force turnovers can make those problems even more damaging. The Aggies have questions on the offensive line, but Hedden, Damante and Jones give the offense enough options to attack a Mercyhurst defense that just surrendered 484 yards. New Mexico State will create short fields through its defense and produce enough offense to build a comfortable lead. Final Score Prediction: New Mexico State Aggies win and cover ATS, 38-10.
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Best Picks
- New Mexico State Aggies -24.5 (-108)
- Under 50.5 (-108)
