Missouri State vs SMU Picks and Prediction for Saturday, September 26, 2026
The Missouri State Bears visit the 22nd-ranked SMU Mustangs on Saturday, September 26, at Gerald J. Ford Stadium in Dallas, with the opening kickoff scheduled for 9:00 PM ET on ACC Network. The Missouri State Bears are 1-2 overall and have not opened their Conference USA schedule, after a 30-24 loss to Marshall. The SMU Mustangs are 2-1 overall and 1-1 in the ACC after losing 41-31 at Louisville. Get ready for Saturday’s matchup with our free NCAAF picks.
Missouri State Bears Preview
Missouri State is averaging 24 points through three games, with 223.3 passing yards and 157.3 rushing yards per game. Skyler Locklear has completed 44 of 65 passes for 597 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception. Ramone Green Jr. leads the ground game with 159 yards and two touchdowns, while Breezy Dubar has 118 yards and two scores. Isaiah Myers has been the top receiving threat with 12 catches for 296 yards and one touchdown.
The Bears are allowing 31.3 points per game after giving up 50 to Texas A&M, 14 to Lincoln and 30 to Marshall. Missouri State has five sacks, one interception and three fumble recoveries. Jared Lloyd leads the defense with 32 tackles and one sack. Jashawn Cooper has 16 tackles and the team’s only interception, while Antonio Smith has 14 tackles, one forced fumble and one recovery. The Bears have six forced fumbles.
Injuries: WR M. Cope (undisclosed) is questionable.
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SMU Mustangs Preview
SMU is averaging 38 points through three games and has produced 368.7 passing yards per game. Kevin Jennings has completed 64 of 87 passes for 989 yards, nine touchdowns, and four interceptions. The Mustangs have also rushed for 505 yards and four touchdowns. Kendrick Raphael leads the backfield with 275 yards and four scores while averaging 7.1 yards per carry. Yannick Smith has 201 receiving yards and two touchdowns, while Yamir Knight has 181 yards and one score.
The Mustangs have allowed 75 points through three games, including 41 in the loss at Louisville. SMU has five sacks, one interception and three fumble recoveries. Jimmy Wyrick leads the pass rush with two sacks, while Aakil Washington and Malcolm Alcorn-Crowder have one each. Tyren Polley Jr. leads SMU with 18 tackles, and Jarvis Lee has the team’s interception along with a forced fumble. SMU has forced two fumbles.
Injuries: RB E. Kelly (undisclosed) is probable. TE M. Uter and RB C. Rhodes are questionable with undisclosed injuries. RB L. Rhodes (knee) is out.
Missouri State vs SMU Prediction
SMU has a major advantage through the air, averaging 368.7 passing yards per game compared with Missouri State’s 223.3. Jennings has thrown nine touchdowns in three games, and Raphael gives the Mustangs another threat with 7.1 yards per carry. Missouri State has enough offensive production to move the ball, especially with Locklear completing 67.7% of his passes, but the Bears have already allowed 50 points in one road game. SMU will control the matchup offensively, but Missouri State can score enough to stay within the large spread. Final Score Prediction: SMU Mustangs win, but Missouri State covers the spread, 45-17.
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- Missouri State Bears +34.5
- Over 58.5
