NC State vs Stanford Picks and Predictions for Friday October 23 2026
NC State had a week off to think about getting hammered by Wake Forest. Stanford spent Saturday beating Elon 34-7. So which team would you rather have your money on? That’s the question Friday night when the Wolfpack visit Stanford Stadium in Stanford, California. Kickoff is at 10:30 PM ET on ESPN. NC State is favored by 7.5 points, with the total around 56.5. The Wolfpack have the better offense, but they’ve been pretty bad away from Raleigh. Stanford hasn’t exactly been a model of consistency, either. The Cardinal got embarrassed by Notre Dame and Wake Forest before beating Elon, and I don’t know how much beating an FCS team tells us. Check out our free college football picks for more predictions.
NC State Needs A Road Win
NC State is 3-3, and the Wolfpack haven’t won away from home. They’re 0-2 on the road, with losses to Virginia and Vanderbilt. They did beat Louisville 31-28 and Appalachian State 41-31, so the offense has shown it can score. But then Wake Forest came to Raleigh on October 10 and won 38-14. That was a rough afternoon. NC State had an extra week to get ready for Stanford, and I imagine the coaching staff spent plenty of time talking about tackling and defensive assignments. The Wolfpack need to play better than they did against Wake Forest. A lot better.
NC State has been averaging more than 33 points per game, but that number includes a 73-0 win over Richmond. Take that one away and the offense doesn’t look quite so overwhelming. The Wolfpack can throw the football, and that’s probably their biggest advantage against Stanford. The Cardinal have given up some huge passing numbers against stronger opponents, and NC State should be able to find opportunities downfield. But the Wolfpack defense has been allowing too many points, too. Wake Forest scored 38, Vanderbilt put up 35, and Appalachian State managed 31. That’s not good enough if NC State wants to get back into the ACC race.
CJ Bailey has thrown for 1,507 yards with nine touchdowns and four interceptions through six games. That’s solid production, and he completed 28 of 39 passes for 241 yards against Wake Forest. But NC State needs more help from its running game. Jayden Scott has 358 rushing yards, and Keenan Jackson leads the receiving group with 400. Those are useful numbers, but the Wolfpack need to turn more drives into touchdowns. Bailey can’t be asked to carry the whole offense every week. Against Stanford, I’d expect NC State to throw early and try to get the Cardinal defense on its heels.
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Stanford Finally Had Something To Celebrate
Stanford is 3-4, and the Cardinal needed Saturday’s 34-7 win over Elon. Badly. They’d lost 57-3 to Wake Forest and 58-7 to Notre Dame in their previous two games. That’s 115 points allowed in two weeks. Not exactly the kind of thing that gets the alumni excited. Beating Elon doesn’t erase those losses, but at least Stanford got to enjoy a Saturday afternoon again. The Cardinal are 3-1 at home, and they’ve beaten Hawaii and Georgia Tech there as well. That’s worth remembering. Stanford hasn’t been winning on the road, but it’s been a different team in its own stadium.
The Cardinal have had some ugly offensive performances against good competition. They scored six against Miami, seven against Duke, three against Wake Forest, and seven against Notre Dame. That’s 23 points in four losses. Not per game. Total. The defense hasn’t been much better, giving up 45 to Miami, 35 to Duke, 57 to Wake Forest, and 58 to Notre Dame. That’s a lot of bad football. But Stanford has been better against teams it can physically match up with, and NC State’s defense has had its own problems. The Cardinal should have chances to move the ball if they can protect the quarterback.
Micah Ford had himself a day against Elon. Four rushing touchdowns, including an 81-yard run in the fourth quarter. That’s the kind of performance Stanford needed from its running game. Davis Warren also threw a 27-yard touchdown pass to Sedrick Irvin. The Cardinal have been searching for offensive consistency, and maybe Saturday gives them something to build on. But NC State is a big step up from Elon. Stanford needs to avoid the turnovers and missed assignments that have hurt it against ACC opponents. If the Cardinal fall behind early, I don’t trust the passing game to bring them back.
NC State vs Stanford Picks and Predictions
NC State -7.5 (-110)
I’m taking NC State, although I don’t love laying more than a touchdown on the road with a team that’s 0-2 away from home. That’s the part that makes me nervous. Stanford is 3-1 at home, and the Cardinal just got a confidence boost against Elon. But the difference in offensive talent is pretty obvious. NC State has a quarterback who’s thrown for more than 1,500 yards, and Stanford has been getting shredded by teams with decent passing attacks. The Cardinal gave up 57 to Wake Forest and 58 to Notre Dame. NC State isn’t Notre Dame, but the Wolfpack have enough offense to make this difficult. I think the extra week of preparation helps, and I expect NC State to win by 10 or 14. Give me the Wolfpack.
Over 56.5 Points (-110)
I’m going over 56.5, and Stanford’s defense is the main reason. The Cardinal have allowed 45, 35, 57, and 58 points in their four losses. That’s a lot of scoring, and NC State has enough offense to take advantage. The Wolfpack defense hasn’t been great, either. Wake Forest scored 38, Vanderbilt put up 35, and Appalachian State managed 31. Stanford doesn’t need to score 35 for this total to go over. If NC State gets into the high 30s, the Cardinal only need a couple of touchdowns and a field goal. The danger is Stanford’s offense disappearing again. That’s happened plenty this season. But I think the Cardinal find some points at home, and NC State does most of the heavy lifting. A 38-21 Wolfpack win would get us there.
Final Picks: NC State -7.5 (-110) and Over 56.5 Points (-110)
This article was completed on October 18, 2026. Betting lines, player availability, and weather forecasts may change before Friday’s kickoff.
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