North Dakota State vs New Mexico Picks and Predictions for Saturday October 24 2026
North Dakota State is 6-1, New Mexico is 5-1, and somebody’s getting a pretty good football team Saturday night. The Bison have been in the Mountain West for all of seven games and already have six wins. New Mexico? The Lobos went into Oklahoma and lost 14-6. That’s their only loss. So don’t expect either team to roll over here.
The Bison head to University Stadium in Albuquerque on Saturday, October 24, 2026, with kickoff set for 10:00 PM ET on The CW. New Mexico is favored by four points at -110, and the total is 46.5. The early weather outlook is around 61 degrees with light wind and little chance of rain, although the forecast still needs checking closer to kickoff. Albuquerque sits more than 5,000 feet above sea level, and that can make things uncomfortable for visiting teams. Check out our free college football picks for more predictions.
North Dakota State Isn’t Playing Like A Newcomer
North Dakota State is 6-1 overall and 3-1 in Mountain West play. The Bison beat Nevada 31-17 Saturday, but they had to dig themselves out of an 11-0 hole first. They lost 13-7 at UNLV the week before, so getting back in the win column mattered. The Bison have already beaten Air Force 38-32 and shut out Wyoming 28-0. Not bad for their first season playing FBS football. And they’ve done it without needing to throw the ball all over the place.
The Bison ran for 192 yards against Nevada and finished with 339 total yards. Nothing spectacular there. But they held Nevada to 96 rushing yards, and that’s the kind of defensive work that wins games. North Dakota State has allowed 13 points or fewer in five of its seven games. The exceptions were Air Force, which scored 32, and Nevada, which managed 17. That’s a defense worth taking seriously. The offense can be a little stubborn, though. Seven points against UNLV wasn’t enough, and New Mexico’s defense might be just as difficult to move against.
Sign Up Get $30 Premium Picks Credit + Exclusive Offers
Subscribe Now
Nathan Hayes threw for 153 yards and two touchdowns against Nevada. He also ran for 42 yards and another score. Myles Mitchell added 49 rushing yards, and Jackson Williams caught five passes for 58. Williams also made the play everybody will remember. Nevada tried a 57-yard field goal at the end of the first half, North Dakota State survived it as a miss, and Williams took the ball back 100 yards for a touchdown. Nevada was trying to add to a 12-11 deficit. Instead, the Bison went into halftime up 19-11. That’s a pretty good swing. But you can’t count on getting seven points from a blocked kick every Saturday.
New Mexico Has Been Pretty Damn Good
New Mexico is 5-1, and the Lobos have won three straight. They beat Hawaii 21-10 on Saturday, which might not sound all that impressive until you remember Hawaii was playing at home. Before that, New Mexico hammered UTEP 61-7 and beat New Mexico State 42-18. The only loss came at Oklahoma, 14-6. Six points isn’t much offense, but holding Oklahoma to 14 tells you the defense can play. New Mexico is also 3-0 at home, where it’s outscored its opponents 169-21. Yeah, some of that competition hasn’t been great. Still, that’s a lot of points.
The Lobos have allowed ten points or fewer in four of their six games. Central Michigan scored seven, Mercyhurst seven, UTEP seven, and Hawaii ten. Oklahoma managed 14. New Mexico State scored 18, the most anybody has put up against them. That’s a pretty strong defensive record. The offense has been a different story depending on the opponent. New Mexico scored 70 against Mercyhurst and 61 against UTEP, then managed 21 at Hawaii. North Dakota State isn’t going to give up 60. I’d be surprised if the Lobos even got close to 30.
The Lobos need their quarterback to take care of the football and their backs to get something going against a Bison defense that just held Nevada under 100 rushing yards. New Mexico has been winning without having to chase points, and that’s important. The Lobos don’t need a bunch of big plays. They need first downs, decent field position, and a defense that keeps doing what it’s been doing. The one thing I’d worry about is North Dakota State’s special teams. That blocked field goal against Nevada wasn’t a small play. It completely changed the game. New Mexico can’t afford to hand over seven points like that.
North Dakota State vs New Mexico Picks and Predictions
North Dakota State +4 (-110)
I’m taking the Bison and four points. New Mexico deserves to be favored at home. The Lobos have been good defensively, and that Oklahoma game tells me they’re not just beating up on bad teams. But North Dakota State has been doing much the same thing. The Bison held Wyoming scoreless, kept UNLV to 13, and just beat Nevada by 14 after falling behind early. I don’t love the trip to Albuquerque, and that altitude could be a problem late. But four points is enough for me. This looks like a game where somebody wins with a late field goal. I’ll take North Dakota State and the points.
Under 46.5 Points (-110)
Give me the under 46.5. New Mexico just won 21-10. North Dakota State lost 13-7 to UNLV two weeks ago. Both defenses have been making life miserable for opposing offenses. The Bison have allowed more than 13 points only twice, and New Mexico hasn’t allowed more than 18 all season. I don’t see either team getting a bunch of easy touchdowns. The thing that bothers me is special teams. North Dakota State scored on a blocked field goal last week, and one play like that can wreck a perfectly good under. But I’m not betting on another 100-yard return. I think this is going to be a lot of running, a lot of punting, and two defenses making quarterbacks work for everything. Something like 23-20 sounds about right.
Final Picks: North Dakota State +4 (-110) and Under 46.5 Points (-110)
This article was completed October 18, 2026. Betting lines, injuries, and weather conditions may change before Saturday’s kickoff.
Betting on College Football?
- Bet with other College Football fans at the best sportsbooks
- Sign up today and get started with the latest college football sportsbook promos
Up To $1500 in Bonus Bets Paid Back if your First Bet Does Not Win
New Users – Get $350 in Bonus Bets when you wager $5 for 7 days
New DraftKings Customers: Bet $5, Get $200 + 3 Months of NBA League Pass!
