Ohio State vs Iowa Picks and Predictions for Saturday October 3 2026
The Ohio State Buckeyes travel to Iowa City for a major Big Ten matchup against the Iowa Hawkeyes at Kinnick Stadium on Saturday, October 3, 2026. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 PM ET with national television coverage on CBS. Ohio State enters at 3-1, while Iowa is a perfect 4-0. The Buckeyes are favored by approximately 13.5 points, with Ohio State around -625 on the moneyline and Iowa +475. The total is 44.5. Be ready for all the college football season with our free college football picks.
Ohio State’s Offense Faces an Elite Test
Ohio State enters averaging 45.0 points per game and has accumulated 2,088 total yards through four games. The Buckeyes have generated 1,461 yards through the air and another 627 on the ground, giving them the ability to attack opponents in multiple ways.
The defense has been nearly as impressive, surrendering just 12.3 points per game. Ohio State’s lone loss was a 24-23 road defeat against Texas, while its three victories have come by decisive margins.
This matchup is different because Iowa has been exceptionally difficult to score against. Ohio State’s offense has averaged more than 500 yards per game, but Iowa is surrendering fewer than 200. Something has to give, and the Buckeyes cannot expect the same number of explosive plays they’ve created against lesser defenses.
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Iowa’s Defense Gives the Hawkeyes a Chance
Iowa enters 4-0 after a 20-19 road victory over Michigan. The Hawkeyes previously defeated Northern Illinois 40-0, Iowa State 16-13 and Northern Iowa 55-0. They are allowing only 8.0 points per game through four contests.
The defensive efficiency has been extraordinary. Iowa has allowed roughly 176.7 yards per game in the available matchup statistics, including only 66 rushing yards and 110.7 passing yards. Opponents are generating just 3.2 yards per play.
Iowa’s concern is offensive pace. Ohio State has enough defensive talent to make sustained drives difficult, meaning the Hawkeyes cannot rely entirely on their defense while expecting to win a game played in the teens. Still, Kinnick Stadium and Iowa’s defensive profile make nearly two touchdowns a significant number.
Ohio State vs Iowa Picks and Prediction
Pick: Iowa +13.5
Ohio State is capable of winning this game without covering. Iowa’s defense has been too effective to ignore, allowing just 8.0 points per game while the Hawkeyes enter undefeated and fresh off a road win against Michigan. Ohio State represents Iowa’s toughest offensive challenge by a considerable margin, but asking the Buckeyes to win by two touchdowns at Kinnick is substantial. Iowa’s defense should keep the Hawkeyes within the number.
Pick: Under 44.5
This is the strongest angle in the matchup. Iowa is allowing only 8.0 points per game, while Ohio State gives up 12.3. The Hawkeyes should attempt to shorten the game, limit possessions and prevent Ohio State’s explosive offense from developing rhythm. A final score in the neighborhood of 24-13 or 27-14 would stay beneath 44.5 while still allowing Ohio State to win comfortably.
Final Picks: Iowa +13.5 and Under 44.5
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