Ohio State vs USC Picks and Predictions for Saturday October 31 2026
I keep hearing about Ohio State losing Julian Sayin, and I get it. You don't lose a quarterback who's thrown 19 touchdown passes and just shrug it off. But I've got a question for anybody ready to jump on USC because of that injury. Did you watch what Wisconsin did to the Trojans last Saturday? USC couldn't run the ball, couldn't protect its quarterback, and scored seven points. Seven. Now Ohio State is coming to town with one of the best defenses in the country. I'm supposed to believe the Trojans have that offensive line straightened out in a week? I don't see it. The college football season is in full swing so you should make sure you are ready for all the games with our free college football picks.
Ohio State heads west to play USC at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum on Saturday, October 31, 2026. Kickoff is at 7:30 PM ET on NBC. The Buckeyes opened as 6.5-point favorites, with the spread now around seven at several sportsbooks. Totals have been listed between 50.5 and 51.5, down from some earlier numbers. Rain is possible in Los Angeles on Saturday evening, although the forecast could change before kickoff. That would be one more thing for both offenses to deal with.
Ohio State Buckeyes Have a Defense Worth Trusting
Ohio State is 6-1 overall and 2-1 on the road. The Buckeyes had last weekend off after beating Indiana 19-15 on October 17. That wasn't a pretty win, and it certainly wasn't the offensive performance Ohio State fans are used to seeing. But they went into Bloomington and beat a good football team. Before that, they handled Maryland 45-16 and Iowa 31-14. Their only loss came by one point at Texas in the opener. I know everybody wants to talk about the quarterback injury. That's fair. But this team didn't suddenly forget how to play football because Sayin got hurt.
Ohio State is averaging 39.3 points and 476 yards per game. The Buckeyes throw for 323 yards a night, although those passing numbers were built with Sayin running the offense. I wouldn't expect the same production immediately from a freshman quarterback. The defense is another story. Ohio State gives up only 13.4 points and 264 yards per game. Opponents are running for fewer than 93 yards a night. That's what makes this matchup interesting. USC just finished with minus-17 rushing yards against Wisconsin. If the Trojans can't run the ball Saturday, Ohio State can spend most of the night going after Jayden Maiava. And that could get ugly.
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Luke Fahey is expected to take over for Sayin, who suffered an arm injury against Indiana and is out for several weeks. Fahey has completed nine of 13 passes for 203 yards this season, with two touchdowns and two interceptions. That's not much experience, and his first start coming at the Coliseum isn't ideal. But he's got Jeremiah Smith to throw to. Smith has 984 receiving yards, and that's a pretty nice option for a young quarterback trying to settle down. Bo Jackson leads the Buckeyes with 516 rushing yards, although he's been dealing with a shoulder injury. Austin Siereveld and Kenyatta Jackson have also had injury concerns. Ohio State needs to check those boxes before Saturday, but I expect Ryan Day to keep the offense fairly simple early and let the defense do its job.
USC Trojans Need to Protect Their Quarterback
USC is 6-2 overall and 4-0 at home. The Trojans were looking pretty good before heading to Wisconsin last weekend. They'd beaten Penn State and Washington, and Lincoln Riley's offense was putting points on the board. Then Wisconsin beat them 24-7, and it wasn't particularly close once the Badgers took control in the second half. USC finished with 241 total yards and gave up five sacks. The Trojans also turned the ball over twice in the first half. That's a bad afternoon for anybody, but it's especially troubling when Ohio State is the next team on the schedule.
USC averages 32.8 points and 435 yards per game. The passing game produces better than 303 yards a night, so there's no shortage of talent on offense. The trouble is getting enough help from the running game. USC averages only 131 rushing yards, and Wisconsin showed what happens when that part of the offense disappears completely. The Trojans were stuck throwing the ball, and the Badgers knew it. USC's defense allows 25 points and 331 yards per game, including 216 through the air. Those aren't terrible numbers, but they're not exactly the kind that make me think Ohio State's freshman quarterback is going to have nowhere to throw. The Trojans need to get pressure on Fahey without leaving Smith running free downfield.
Maiava has thrown for 2,303 yards with 19 touchdowns and five interceptions. He's been good for most of the season, but those two interceptions against Wisconsin hurt. King Miller has 602 rushing yards and four touchdowns, although he managed only eight yards on 11 carries Saturday. That's not going to work against Ohio State. Kayden Dixon-Wyatt leads the receivers with 400 yards, while Trent Mosley has 411 yards and five touchdowns. There's enough talent for USC to score, but the offensive line has to give those guys a chance. Maiava was sacked five times against Wisconsin. If that happens again, I don't care how many good receivers the Trojans have. They're going to struggle to move the ball.
Ohio State vs USC Picks and Predictions
Ohio State Buckeyes -6.5
I'm taking Ohio State -6.5. I know the quarterback situation makes this a little uncomfortable, and I wouldn't blame anybody for wanting to see Fahey play before putting money on him. But I don't think Ohio State needs him to throw for 350 yards to win this game. The Buckeyes have a defense allowing 13.4 points a night, and they're facing a USC offensive line that just gave up five sacks and couldn't open a running lane against Wisconsin. That's the matchup I keep coming back to. USC is dangerous when Maiava has time. He can throw it around, and Lincoln Riley knows how to create scoring chances. But if Ohio State takes away the run and starts getting pressure, I think USC spends a lot of this game trying to get out of third-and-long. Fahey might make a mistake or two. That's the risk. But I'll trust the Buckeyes' defense and take Ohio State to win by more than a touchdown.
Under 53.5
Under 53.5 was our original total pick, and I still like the idea of a lower-scoring game. The number has moved down, though, so I'd be much happier with 53.5 than the 50.5 being offered at some books now. Ohio State is going to be careful with Fahey in his first start. I don't expect Day to ask him to throw the ball 40 times unless the Buckeyes fall behind. On the other side, USC just scored seven points against Wisconsin and now faces a defense allowing only 13.4 per game. Maiava can make plays, but he needs some help up front. If the Trojans can't run the ball, those long passing downs are going to make it difficult to sustain drives. Rain could make things even tougher if it shows up Saturday night. The danger is USC giving Ohio State short fields with turnovers, or Smith breaking a couple of big plays. But I see something around 27-17 Ohio State. That gets us the Buckeyes cover and keeps the game under the original number.
Final Picks: Ohio State Buckeyes -6.5 and Under 53.5
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