Oklahoma vs Mississippi State Picks and Predictions for Saturday October 24 2026
Oklahoma scored 13 points against Kentucky. Mississippi State scored nothing against LSU. And now we’re supposed to figure out which offense is going to show up in Starkville. Good luck with that. The Sooners visit Mississippi State at Davis Wade Stadium on Saturday, October 24, 2026. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 PM ET. An early FanDuel market had Oklahoma favored by 2.5 points. That’s about where I’d expect this game to be priced. Both teams have enough talent to win, but neither is coming off an afternoon it wants to remember. Oklahoma lost 21-13 to Kentucky, while Mississippi State got shut out 31-0 at LSU. We’ll need a closer game-time weather check for temperature, wind, gusts, and rain before publishing. Check out our free college football picks for more predictions.
Oklahoma Needs To Get Its Offense Moving
Oklahoma is coming off consecutive SEC losses, including Saturday’s 21-13 defeat against Kentucky. That’s a pretty miserable stretch for a team that had looked capable of making some noise in the conference. The Sooners were supposed to have an advantage playing Kentucky at home. Didn’t work out that way. They struggled to finish drives, couldn’t get enough points on the board, and watched another winnable game slip away. Now they’re headed to Starkville, where Mississippi State will be desperate to erase its own embarrassing performance.
Thirteen points isn’t enough in this league. Not against Kentucky, not against Mississippi State, and certainly not against the better teams Oklahoma still has to play. The Sooners have had trouble turning promising possessions into touchdowns. They’ll move the ball for a while, get into scoring position, and then somebody misses a block or the quarterback gets pressured. The defense has generally given Oklahoma a chance to compete, but it can’t keep bailing out an offense that settles for field goals. Mississippi State’s defense just spent an afternoon chasing LSU receivers. Oklahoma should find some opportunities if it can protect the passer.
The quarterback play has to improve, and that starts with making better decisions when the first option isn’t open. Oklahoma also needs more consistent rushing production. It’s hard to run a balanced offense when the ground game isn’t keeping the defense honest. The Sooners have enough ability at the skill positions to score more than 13 points, but somebody has to start making plays on third down. I’d also watch the offensive line closely. Mississippi State will be looking for any opportunity to pressure the quarterback after getting embarrassed in Baton Rouge.
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Mississippi State Can’t Have Another Saturday Like That
Mississippi State went into LSU ranked 16th and came home after a 31-0 beating. That’s about as bad as it gets. The Bulldogs never found the end zone, couldn’t do much to slow LSU’s passing game, and spent the afternoon playing from behind. Before that loss, Mississippi State had put together a season good enough to earn a national ranking. One game doesn’t erase all of that. But getting shut out against an SEC opponent raises some serious questions about the offense.
The Bulldogs gave up four touchdown passes against LSU. That’s a problem, especially with Oklahoma coming to town looking for a chance to get its own passing game going. Mississippi State needs to be more physical up front and make the Sooners work through long drives. Offensively, the Bulldogs can’t afford another afternoon where they fail to establish the run and end up throwing in obvious passing situations. LSU made them pay for that. Oklahoma’s defense is capable of doing the same thing if Mississippi State doesn’t get ahead of the chains.
The biggest personnel question is the Bulldogs’ health. Quarterback Kamario Taylor and running back Fluff Bothwell were reported as expected absences for the LSU game. Their status needs to be checked again before Saturday. Those aren’t minor positions to be missing production from. If Mississippi State is still working with a limited backfield, it changes the whole offensive approach. The Bulldogs need a reliable running game to keep Oklahoma from attacking the quarterback all afternoon. Without it, I don’t like their chances of scoring enough.
Oklahoma vs Mississippi State Picks and Predictions
Oklahoma -2.5
I’m taking Oklahoma at less than a field goal. Neither team impressed me Saturday, and that’s putting it nicely. But Mississippi State’s offense looked completely lost against LSU, and the quarterback and running back injury situations make me nervous. Oklahoma has its own problems, no question. Thirteen points against Kentucky isn’t good enough. But I think the Sooners have a better chance of fixing their offensive mistakes than Mississippi State does of overcoming major personnel losses in one week. Playing in Starkville is the concern. That crowd can make things difficult. Still, give me Oklahoma by a field goal or more.
Under 48.5 Points
I’ll play the under 48.5 as a target number, provided that’s available when the market is checked again. Oklahoma scored 13 last week. Mississippi State scored zero. I don’t expect both offenses to stay that bad, but I haven’t seen enough to predict a shootout, either. The Sooners should try to establish the run, and Mississippi State would be wise to do the same if its backfield is healthy enough. The danger is turnovers creating short fields. Both teams are coming off games where the offense put too much pressure on the defense. But I think this is more likely to finish 24-17 than 38-31.
Final Picks: Oklahoma -2.5 and Under 48.5 Points (target line; verify availability)
This preview was completed October 18, 2026. Betting lines, injuries, and game-time weather may change before kickoff.
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