Ole Miss vs Texas Picks and Predictions for Saturday October 24 2026
Somebody needs to explain to me why Texas is still laying nearly a touchdown against Ole Miss. The Rebels just beat Missouri 31-3. Texas just lost to Florida at home. And it wasn’t even a particularly good Florida team coming into that game.
Ole Miss visits Texas at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin on Saturday, October 24, 2026. Kickoff is at 7:30 PM ET on ABC. Texas opened around an 8.5-point favorite, but the spread has been closer to 6.5, with the total around 53.5. The early forecast calls for temperatures near 79 degrees, dry conditions, and wind around eight mph. The heat should be manageable by kickoff, but it’s still worth checking. This is one of the more interesting SEC games on the board. Check out our free college football picks for more predictions.
Ole Miss Just Put Missouri In Its Place
Ole Miss is 5-1 overall and 3-1 in SEC play. The Rebels just beat 13th-ranked Missouri 31-3, and that wasn’t some lucky win where everything bounced their way. Ole Miss controlled the line of scrimmage, ran the football, and kept Missouri out of the end zone all afternoon. They’ve also beaten LSU and Tennessee this season. That’s a pretty good collection of wins. Now they’re headed to Austin to face a Texas team that has lost two straight. I don’t know about you, but I’d rather be walking into this game with the confidence Ole Miss has right now.
The Rebels finished with 498 yards against Missouri, including 257 on the ground. Missouri had only 39 rushing yards. That’s not a small difference. Ole Miss also converted nine of 14 third downs, which tells you the offense was staying ahead of the chains. The defense gave up 339 passing yards, so it wasn’t perfect, but Missouri couldn’t finish drives. That’s what mattered. Texas has been struggling offensively, and Ole Miss has enough talent up front to make that problem worse. The Rebels don’t need to hold Texas to three points. They just need to keep the Longhorns from getting comfortable.
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Trinidad Chambliss threw for 241 yards and three touchdowns against Missouri and added another score on the ground. He has now thrown a touchdown pass in 19 straight games. Kewan Lacy ran for 122 yards, and the Rebels got contributions from several backs. That’s what impressed me. Ole Miss didn’t have to rely on Chambliss throwing 45 times. The running game took care of business. Against Texas, that balance is going to matter. The Longhorns have defensive talent, but they’re going to have trouble if Ole Miss can keep converting third downs and running the football the way it did Saturday.
Texas Is Making Life Hard On Itself
Texas is 4-2, and the Longhorns have lost two straight. They lost 27-24 to Oklahoma, then came home and lost 27-24 to Florida. That’s six points separating them from a completely different season. But close losses still count as losses, and Texas has been making far too many mistakes. The Florida game was especially frustrating. The Longhorns jumped ahead 17-3, then watched the offense disappear. Florida came back and won, and Texas was left trying to explain how it let another one get away.
Texas managed only one first down over a long stretch against Florida. One. That’s not what you expect from a team with this much offensive talent. The Longhorns have been struggling to sustain drives, and the quarterback has been turning the ball over at terrible times. The defense has kept them in games, but even a good defense gets worn down when the offense keeps handing the football back. Ole Miss just ran for 257 yards against Missouri. Texas had better be ready to tackle, because the Rebels aren’t going to stop handing it off if it’s working.
Arch Manning has thrown for more than 1,100 yards this season, but the numbers don’t tell the whole story. He’s been inconsistent, especially late in games, and the turnovers are becoming a real problem. He fumbled on Texas’ final possession against Florida, ending any chance of a comeback. The Longhorns have some talented receivers and backs, but the offense hasn’t been getting enough from them when it matters. Steve Sarkisian has some decisions to make about the quarterback position and the play-calling. I wouldn’t be surprised if Texas looks different offensively Saturday. But until I see it, I’m not paying a premium to back the Longhorns.
Ole Miss vs Texas Picks and Predictions
Ole Miss +6.5 (-110)
I’m taking Ole Miss and the points. This is one of those games where the market seems to be giving Texas an awful lot of credit for what people expected it to be. The Longhorns have lost two straight, and the offense has been falling apart in important situations. Ole Miss just ran for 257 yards against Missouri and held a ranked opponent to three points. That’s good football. Texas has the home field, and the Longhorns are talented enough to win outright. I’m not dismissing that. But six and a half points? I’ll gladly take them with the team that’s playing better right now.
Under 53.5 Points (-112)
I’m going under 53.5. Ole Miss has been scoring, and that makes this a little uncomfortable. But the Rebels just showed they can win by controlling the running game and playing defense. Texas has scored 24 in each of its last two games, and the Longhorns have had trouble sustaining drives. I think Ole Miss will try to make Texas earn everything instead of getting into a wild back-and-forth game. The danger is the Rebels hitting big plays early and forcing Texas to open things up. But I can see a 27-23 game here, maybe even a 24-20 finish. Give me the under.
Final Picks: Ole Miss +6.5 (-110) and Under 53.5 Points (-112)
This preview was completed October 18, 2026. Betting lines, injuries, and game-time weather may change before kickoff.
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