Penn State at Iowa Picks and Prediction for Saturday, October 18, 2025
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Penn State (3–3, 0–3 Big Ten) will travel to Kinnick Stadium to take on the Iowa Hawkeyes (4–2, 2–1 Big Ten) in a Big Ten matchup scheduled for 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, October 18. Get in on the action with our free college football picks.
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Penn State Analysis
Penn State is in a challenging stretch of the season. The injury to QB Drew Allar (season-ending) has forced the team to pivot to redshirt freshman Ethan Grunkemeyer, making this a tough road test under new circumstances.
Key Player Stats & Team Metrics
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Through six games, the former starters’ stats: Penn State’s QB (Allar) had thrown for 1,100 yards, 8 TDs, 3 INTs.
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Running back Kaytron Allen has totaled 467 rushing yards on 70 carries, with 7 rushing touchdowns.
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Leading receiver Devonte Ross has logged 240 receiving yards on 16 catches, with 3 touchdowns.
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Offensively, Penn State averages 369.8 total yards per game (200.8 passing / 169 rushing)
Given the quarterback change, Penn State will need to lean more on the run game and minimize mistakes.
Iowa Hawkeyes Analysis
Iowa will look to exploit Penn State’s instability and impose its ground control and defense at home.
Key Player Stats & Team Metrics
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Iowa averages 326.0 total yards per game (142 passing / 184 rushing)
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Defensively, Iowa is stout: 246.7 yards allowed per game (167.7 passing / 79 rushing), and allows 13.0 points per game.
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Iowa is among the FBS leaders in limiting the run, giving up only 79 rushing yards per game.
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Iowa leads the FBS in fewest penalty yards per game 21.3), while Penn State is 10th in penalty yards (34.0).
Iowa’s identity of run-first offense combined with physical defense is well suited to exploit a now inexperienced Penn State offense.
Standout Players and Key Notes
Penn State:
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Ethan Grunkemeyer (QB, PSU backup) is thrust into action; his poise, decision-making, and ball security will decide much of PSU’s success.
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Kaytron Allen: if the run game can be effective, it will relieve pressure from the passing game.
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Devonte Ross: must be a consistent, reliable target in key downs and in moving chains.
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Defensive line / linebackers will need to contain Iowa’s rushing attack and prevent control of the clock.
Iowa:
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Mark Gronowski (QB): efficient enough to manage the game, avoid turnovers, and hand off when necessary.
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Kamari Moulton (RB): must continue strong rushing form; in recent games, he carried 15 times for 96 yards vs. Wisconsin.
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Sam Phillips (WR): lead receiving option; must make plays when Iowa needs to shift tempo.
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Iowa’s defense collectively: run stuffing, gap control, pressure on QB, and disciplined tackling will be keys.
Penn State vs Iowa Prediction Reasoning
This game heavily favors Iowa, for multiple reasons: Penn State’s loss of its starting QB, Iowa’s defensive strength against the run and overall structure, and time-of-possession advantage. Penn State may attempt to surprise by leaning on Allen’s rushing and forcing Iowa into passing situations, but Iowa is well positioned to counter that.
Even with a rookie QB, Penn State can make this respectable if they avoid turnovers and control tempo. But Iowa’s home-field, defense, and rushing identity give them a clear edge.
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Final Score Projection: Iowa 24, Penn State 13
Best Picks
- Iowa -3
- Under 38.5 total points
