Sam Houston vs Missouri State Picks and Predictions for Tuesday October 27 2026
Missouri State just gave up 61 points to Delaware, and somehow the Bears are laying nearly a touchdown Tuesday. That tells you plenty about what the oddsmakers think of Sam Houston. The Bearkats have won one game, haven’t won on the road, and their offense has been stuck in neutral. But Missouri State isn’t exactly Alabama. We’re talking about two teams with three combined victories. At some point, six and a half points starts looking pretty valuable.
Sam Houston heads to Robert W. Plaster Stadium in Springfield, Missouri, on Tuesday, October 27, 2026. Kickoff is set for 8:00 PM ET on ESPN2. Missouri State is favored by 6.5, with the total around 51.5. The forecast is calling for temperatures in the mid-60s, dry conditions, winds around 7-8 mph and possible gusts approaching 19 mph. Nothing there should seriously interfere with the passing game. Be ready for all the college football action with our free college football picks.
Sam Houston Needs to Find Some Offense
Sam Houston is 1-6 overall and 0-3 on the road. That’s a pretty rough start, and the Bearkats haven’t given us much reason to think they’re about to turn things around. Western Kentucky just held them to three points in a 16-3 loss. Sam Houston has been competitive defensively in stretches, but its offense hasn’t been able to finish drives. That’s how you end up with one win after seven games. The Bearkats need a much better performance Tuesday, and Missouri State’s defense should give them some opportunities.
Sam Houston has thrown for 1,482 yards through seven games, an average of roughly 212 per contest. The running game has been considerably worse, producing only 570 yards on 181 attempts. That’s 3.15 yards per carry. You can’t build much of an offense around that. The Bearkats have also scored only three rushing touchdowns all season. Missouri State has been vulnerable against the pass, though, allowing more than 250 yards per game and 16 passing touchdowns. Sam Houston should be able to move the ball through the air if it protects the quarterback. The Bears have only been getting about 1.3 sacks per game, so there should be time to throw.
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The Bearkats have been better defensively than their record suggests. Their third-down defense ranks among the better units nationally, and that’s important against a Missouri State offense that has struggled to sustain drives. Sam Houston needs to create a few short fields and take advantage of the Bears’ defensive mistakes. The biggest problem is finishing. The Bearkats have scored on only ten of their 13 red-zone trips, and they haven’t been particularly effective running near the goal line. They can’t afford to settle for field goals every time they get close. Not against a defense that just gave up 61 points.
Missouri State Has to Forget Delaware in a Hurry
Missouri State is 2-5 overall and 2-1 at home. The Bears just got hammered 61-38 by Delaware, and that’s a difficult result to ignore. They scored 38 points, which should be enough to keep most games competitive, but the defense couldn’t stop anything. Missouri State has been allowing nearly 35 points per game, and that’s why the Bears are sitting three games below .500. The offense has shown some life, particularly through the air, but the defense keeps putting it in difficult situations.
Missouri State has thrown for 1,685 yards through seven games, an average of 240.7. In conference play, that number has been even better at around 285 yards per contest. The Bears can move the football, and Sam Houston’s defense isn’t so dominant that Missouri State should be afraid to throw. The running game has been more productive than Sam Houston’s, gaining 888 yards on 225 attempts. That’s just under four yards per carry. The Bears also have nine rushing touchdowns, which gives them another way to finish drives. The concern is turnovers. Missouri State has thrown six interceptions and lost five fumbles, and those mistakes have been costly.
Missouri State has scored on 21 of its 25 red-zone trips, an 84% success rate. That’s considerably better than Sam Houston, and it could make the difference in a close game. The Bears have also been more productive on the ground, which gives them a little more balance. But I can’t get past that defense. Delaware just put up 61, and Missouri State has allowed 16 passing touchdowns in seven games. Sam Houston isn’t nearly as explosive as Delaware, but the Bearkats should still be able to find some open receivers. Missouri State can win this game. I’m just not convinced it should be laying almost a touchdown.
Sam Houston vs Missouri State Picks and Predictions
Sam Houston +6.5
I’ll take Sam Houston getting 6.5 points. The Bearkats have been terrible offensively, and I understand why Missouri State is favored. But the Bears just allowed 61 points, and they’ve been giving up nearly 35 per game. That’s not a defense I want to trust laying a touchdown. Sam Houston should have opportunities through the air, and its third-down defense is good enough to keep Missouri State from running away with things. The concern is that the Bearkats can’t finish drives and end up losing something like 27-13. That’s certainly possible. But I think this is closer than the records suggest. Missouri State probably wins, but I’ll take the points.
Over 51.5
I’m going over 51.5. Missouri State’s defense has been giving up nearly 35 points per game, and Delaware just scored 61. Sam Houston hasn’t been able to score much, but this is one of the better matchups the Bearkats have had offensively. Missouri State can throw the ball, and Sam Houston’s defense has allowed 25.3 points per contest. Both teams should find opportunities. The biggest concern is Sam Houston’s running game, which has been almost nonexistent. If the Bearkats can’t move the ball, this could stay under. But I think Missouri State gets close to 30, and Sam Houston should be able to contribute enough to push the total over.
Final Picks: Sam Houston +6.5 and Over 51.5
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