Texas State Bobcats vs Texas Longhorns Picks and Prediction for Saturday, September 5, 2026
The Texas State Bobcats visit the No. 5 Texas Longhorns on Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin, on ESPN. Texas State finished 7-6 overall last season and closed 2025 with four straight wins, including a 41-10 bowl victory over Rice. Texas went 10-3 overall and ended the year with three consecutive victories, capped by a 41-27 win over Michigan. The Longhorns are 30.5-point home favorites, with the total set at 59.5 points. Find your opening-week betting angle with our free NCAAF picks.
Texas State Bobcats Preview
Texas State brings back an offense that averaged 473 yards per game and ranked fifth nationally in 2025. Quarterback Brad Jackson completed 71% of his passes for 3,224 yards and 21 touchdowns while adding 17 rushing scores. Beau Sparks returns after leading the Bobcats with 84 receptions, and Mississippi State transfer Davian Jackson adds another option. The concern is at running back after the departure of leading rusher Lincoln Pare.
The Bobcats have more questions defensively after an offseason overhaul up front. DonTerry Russell returns after recording 4.5 sacks, while McNeese State transfer Phillip Bradford adds size and pass-rushing ability. Texas State did not create many turnovers last season, recording multiple takeaways in only two regular-season games. That puts added pressure on a rebuilt front against a Texas offense loaded with proven playmakers.
Texas Longhorns Preview
Arch Manning returns after passing for 3,163 yards with 26 touchdowns and seven interceptions while adding 10 rushing scores. Ryan Wingo is back after catching 54 passes with seven touchdowns, and Auburn transfer Cam Coleman gives Manning another major target after producing more than 1,300 yards and 13 touchdowns over two seasons. Texas also added running backs Hollywood Smothers and Raleek Brown, who combined for more than 2,000 rushing yards at their previous schools.
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Texas allowed 339 yards and 20 points per game last season while recording 41 sacks. Colin Simmons returns after leading the SEC with 12 sacks and 15.5 tackles for loss, giving the Longhorns a dangerous edge rusher against Jackson. The secondary lost key players, but Jelani McDonald returns after making 80 tackles and three interceptions. Texas has enough speed at every level to create problems for the Bobcats' fast-paced attack.
Texas State Bobcats vs Texas Longhorns Prediction
Texas State has the offensive production to make this more competitive than the 30.5-point spread suggests. Jackson's accuracy and mobility give the Bobcats a way to extend drives, while an experienced receiving group can test a Texas secondary replacing several important players. Texas still has too much offensive firepower for the Bobcats to match for four quarters. Manning enters with a full season of starting experience, and the additions of Coleman, Smothers and Brown give Texas several ways to attack. The Longhorns will win comfortably, but Texas State's returning quarterback and high-scoring offense will produce enough points to stay inside the number. Final Score Prediction: Texas Longhorns win but Texas State Bobcats cover ATS, 45-21.
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Best Picks
- Texas State Bobcats +30.5 (-115)
- Over 59.5 (-112)
