USC vs Penn State Picks and Predictions for Saturday October 10 2026
The No. 19 USC Trojans visit the Penn State Nittany Lions at Beaver Stadium in University Park, Pennsylvania, on Saturday, October 10, 2026, for a Big Ten matchup. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 PM ET. USC enters at 5-1 after beating Washington 25-21, while Penn State is 3-1. The current market has USC favored by 2.5 points, with the total sitting at 57.5. Be sure to check out our free college football picks for more college football predictions throughout the season.
USC Takes Its Offense to Happy Valley
USC improved to 5-1 with a 25-21 victory over Washington, surviving a competitive Big Ten game and setting up one of its biggest road tests of the season. The Trojans are now favored at Beaver Stadium, which is significant given Penn State’s traditional home-field advantage.
USC’s offensive ceiling remains the primary reason to trust the Trojans. They have enough explosiveness to create points quickly, but the Washington game also demonstrated that USC can win when the offense isn’t producing a huge total.
The challenge is handling the environment. Penn State can create considerably more defensive pressure at home, and USC can’t afford turnovers that allow the Nittany Lions to play with short fields. If the Trojans protect the football, their offensive advantage should eventually become apparent.
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Penn State Has a Chance to Change Its Season
Penn State enters 3-1, but the Nittany Lions remain difficult to evaluate after an uneven opening month. Their loss to Northwestern was particularly damaging, as Penn State surrendered 413 rushing yards in a 34-13 defeat.
The Nittany Lions have nevertheless been strong against the spread recently, covering four of their last five games. Returning to Beaver Stadium should also help after USC had to grind through a competitive Washington game.
Penn State’s defensive performance will determine whether it can pull the upset. The Nittany Lions cannot repeat the problems that surfaced against Northwestern because USC has enough offensive firepower to punish missed assignments much more severely.
USC vs Penn State Picks and Predictions
Pick: USC -2.5
USC -2.5 is the side pick. Winning at Beaver Stadium is never easy, but the market making USC the road favorite is telling. The Trojans are 5-1 and just found a way to beat Washington 25-21, while Penn State’s 34-13 loss to Northwestern exposed major defensive concerns. Keeping the spread below a field goal gives USC additional value. I’ll back the Trojans to win by at least three.
Pick: Over 57.5
The Over 57.5 is the total pick. Penn State’s last six games following a performance with fewer than 170 passing yards have gone Over, while USC has gone Over in four straight against teams with winning records. More importantly, Penn State’s defensive vulnerabilities create the possibility of USC reaching the 30s, while the home environment should help the Nittany Lions contribute enough offense to keep pace. A 34-27 type of result clears the number.
Final Picks: USC -2.5 and Over 57.5
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