Virginia Cavaliers vs Missouri Tigers Picks and Predictions for Saturday, December 27, 2025
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Virginia meets Missouri in the TaxSlayer Gator Bowl on Saturday night in Jacksonville. Virginia is 10–3 after a 27–20 overtime loss to Duke in the ACC Championship, while Missouri is 8–4 following a 31–17 road win at Arkansas in the final game of the regular season. We break it down for you with our free college football picks.
Virginia vs Missouri Game Information
- Kickoff: 7:30 PM ET
- Date: Saturday, December 27
- Where: EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville, FL
- TV: ABC
Virginia Cavaliers Outlook
Virginia’s offense is led by QB Chandler Morris, who finished 257-for-398 for 2,802 yards with 16 touchdowns and 9 interceptions. The ground game runs through RB J’Mari Taylor (222 carries, 1,062 yards, 14 TDs), and he’s also a big part of the short passing game when Virginia needs third-down conversions. Trell Harris is the top wideout with 59 catches for 847 yards and 5 scores, giving Morris a reliable target when Virginia needs big gains.
On defense, Virginia’s best production comes from pressure plus steady tackling. Daniel Rickert leads the pass rush with 6.5 sacks, and the Cavaliers need that to matter against Missouri’s rushing attack. Safety Devin Neal leads the team with 77 tackles, and Ja’son Prevard has been the top ball hawk with 3 interceptions. If Virginia keeps missed tackles down and forces Missouri into longer third downs, the matchup stays within reach.
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Missouri Tigers Outlook
Missouri’s offense is built around Ahmad Hardy, who piled up 1,560 rushing yards on 241 carries with 16 touchdowns. Beau Pribula finished 182-for-270 for 1,941 yards with 11 TDs and 9 INTs, and the Tigers are at their best when the run game sets up manageable throws and keeps the chains moving. Kevin Coleman Jr. leads the receiving group with 63 catches for 715 yards, and Missouri has found scoring from multiple pass-catchers, including Brett Norfleet (5 receiving TDs).
Defensively, Missouri has playmakers at every position, including upfront, at linebacker, and in the secondary. Damon Wilson II leads the team with 9 sacks. Josiah Trotter leads the team with 84 tackles, and Toriano Pride Jr. leads the interceptions list with 2 while also getting his hands on passes in coverage. If Missouri wins early downs and forces Virginia into obvious passing situations, the Tigers can control the tempo.
Key Matchups
Virginia OL vs Missouri pass rush: Morris is most effective when he can get the ball out on time, but Wilson and the front can turn this into a difficult third-down game.
Missouri run game vs Virginia tackling: Hardy’s production is key; Virginia has to limit explosive runs and not miss tackles.
Betting Odds & Market Movement
Missouri opened -7 and is listed at -4
Point total is listed at 44.5 (over -118, under -102).
Missouri vs Virginia Picks and Predictions
Missouri’s rushing edge is the clearest difference in this matchup, and that tends to hold up in bowl settings because it shortens the game. Virginia can keep it competitive if Morris hits enough intermediate throws and the defense creates takeaways, but Missouri’s ability to rely on Hardy and finish drives is the play. Final Score Prediction: Missouri Tigers win and cover ATS 27-23. Betting on sports and on Missouri is easy, but even easier if you use the best sportsbooks. Make sure you know about how the fans are looking on prediction markets for Virginia with the Novig promo code. Make sure when you place your bet on Virginia vs Missouri you are using the BetMGM bonus code.
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Best Picks
- Missouri Tigers +4
- Over 44.5
