Atlanta Falcons at Indianapolis Colts Picks and Prediction for Saturday, August 22, 2026
Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis hosts Preseason Week 2 at 1:00 PM ET as the Atlanta Falcons (0-1) visit the Indianapolis Colts (0-0-1). The Atlanta Falcons were crushed in their 2026 preseason debut, losing to the Denver Broncos 27-7, despite their starters playing a handful of snaps. The Colts played to a 13-13 tie against the New England Patriots in Week 1, a flat opening result that left both of Indianapolis's quarterback candidates with more questions than answers. The teams participated in joint practices on Wednesday and Thursday at the Colts' facility in Indianapolis prior to Saturday's game, a format that ensures the most competitive live reps have already been taken before a single preseason snap is played Saturday afternoon. Read on to find out who takes the W in our Falcons vs. Colts preseason prediction. Get our top NFL Predictions and increase your bankroll!
Colts: Leonard and Richardson Split Reps
Indianapolis Colts head coach Shane Steichen said earlier this week that most starters will not suit up here, but Riley Leonard and Anthony Richardson will share the reps under center. Leonard is expected to play the first half, while Richardson will take the second half. That gives Indianapolis a more interesting quarterback setup than the Atlanta Falcons.
There is a battle for the No. 2 quarterback spot in Indianapolis. Anthony Richardson started the Week 1 game and went 11-of-14 for 145 yards and an interception. Riley Leonard came into the game in the second half and went 10-of-21 for 89 yards and an interception. Neither performance built conviction heading into Saturday, Steichen described the competition as "back and forth right now" and added "there's been flashes, but yeah, there's work to be done for sure." A head coach acknowledging flashes without separation four days before the game is the most honest possible assessment of what the Colts' backup-quarterback evaluation will look like across four quarters.
The spread opened with Indianapolis as a 1.5-point favorite and has moved two full points to -3.5, both the spread and the total have moved in aligned directions since opening, reflecting market confidence in the home side despite the quarterback uncertainty. The Colts are at home with a clear two-quarterback rotation that gives the Indianapolis offense more defined structure than the Falcons can deploy, and Lucas Oil Stadium's indoor environment removes weather as a scoring variable that could complicate either team's backup-quarterback execution.
Sign Up Get $30 Premium Picks Credit + Exclusive Offers
Subscribe Now
Falcons: Stefanski Confirms Starters Out
Because of the joint practices, Falcons head coach Kevin Stefanski said earlier this week that starters will not play in Saturday's game. They have been getting the majority of reps in practice the last two days. That confirmation is the single most important pre-game information available for anyone betting Saturday's total or spread, a head coach who has explicitly said his starters will not play is running the purest form of backup-heavy preseason football, where depth-chart quality determines outcomes more than any tactical consideration.
Tua Tagovailoa started the Week 1 preseason opener against Denver and is the presumed starter for the regular season. Michael Penix Jr., who was Atlanta's incumbent starter, is dealing with a knee injury and hasn't been cleared for 11-on-11 team drills. The Penix injury leaves Atlanta cycling Tua's backup behind Tagovailoa in an exhibition game where the depth chart's third and fourth options will see extended playing time, precisely the scenario where the gap between teams' backup rosters determines the competitive outcome.
Setting the Falcons as 3.5-point underdogs in a game in which starters won't play for either team is an overreaction to last week's results. The 27-7 Broncos preseason blowout came in Week 1 when Denver had Nix and their starters establishing the tone, Saturday is fundamentally different, with both teams running backups after joint practice reps that have distributed the competitive evaluation work across two days of practice rather than the Saturday game itself.
Falcons vs. Colts Picks
- Money Line Pick: Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons' first game was a disaster, but let's not forget the amount of variance we see week-to-week in the NFL, especially the preseason. That's why I think setting the Falcons as 3.5-point underdogs in a game in which starters won't play for either team is an overreaction to last week's results. Based on how both Richardson and Leonard played at quarterback for the Colts in Week 1, we don't know if they can create separation and cover this 3.5-point spread against Atlanta. Two backup-quarterback competitions running simultaneously across four quarters, with neither team's starters available, make the three-and-a-half point spread a number that requires genuine depth-chart superiority to cover, and the Colts have not demonstrated that superiority in live action. Take the Falcons.
- Over/Under Pick: Under 36.5
The joint practices earlier in the week are a critical piece. When two teams practice together in the days before a preseason game, veteran starters typically get their real competitive work done during the practice sessions rather than in the game itself. What that means for Saturday is that any starters who do play will see limited snaps, and both teams are essentially running out backup rotations for the majority of the game. The Colts' Week 1 game produced just 26 combined points with the Patriots, the lowest single-game preseason total of the opening weekend. Two backup-heavy offenses running vanilla play-calling in a dome after exhausting their starters in two days of joint practices, with Penix unavailable for Atlanta and neither Colts quarterback having separated in their Week 1 competition, is the formula for a low-scoring Saturday afternoon in Indianapolis. Take the Under 36.5.
Betting on the NFL?
- Be sure to look our our list of the best NFL online sportsbooks
- Grow your bankroll by claiming one of our favorite NFL sportsbook promo codes
Up To $1500 in Bonus Bets Paid Back if your First Bet Does Not Win
New Users – Bet $5 Get $200 in Bet Reset Tokens for 5 Days
New DraftKings Customers: Spend $5+ Get $150 in Bonus Bets *Paid Within 14 Days
