Buffalo Bills vs Las Vegas Raiders Picks and Predictions for Sunday October 18 2026
The Buffalo Bills head to Las Vegas on Sunday, October 18, 2026, to face the Raiders at Allegiant Stadium. Kickoff is set for 4:25 PM ET on CBS. Buffalo is coming off a wild 37-34 overtime win against the Rams on Monday night, while Las Vegas got embarrassed 45-17 by New England. The Bills are favored by 5.5 points at FanDuel, with the total sitting at 53.5. Allegiant Stadium is indoors, so weather won’t be a problem. I’m leaning toward Buffalo here. Josh Allen has been putting up points, and the Raiders just gave up 45 to Drake Maye and the Patriots. But I wouldn’t completely write off Las Vegas. The Raiders have a pretty good passing game, and Buffalo’s defense has been giving up plenty of yards. I think we’re going to see some touchdowns in this one. Make sure you check out all of our free NFL picks.
Buffalo Bills Keep Finding Ways To Win
Buffalo is 4-1 overall and has won both road games. The Bills have already beaten Houston, Detroit, the Chargers, and now the Rams. Their only loss came against New England, 29-26. Monday night’s game against Los Angeles was something else. Buffalo needed overtime to pull out a 37-34 win, and Allen ended up doing much of the work himself. He rushed for 121 yards, threw for another 210, and kept making plays when the Rams thought they had him stopped. James Cook couldn’t get much going on the ground, so Allen took over. Nothing new there. The Bills have been relying on their quarterback for years, and he keeps delivering. Joe Brady has to be happy with four wins through five games. I’d be a little concerned about the defense, though. Giving up 34 points and 383 passing yards to the Rams isn’t exactly something to celebrate.
The Bills are averaging 32.8 points per game. That’s the best scoring average in the league right now. They’re also gaining 396.2 yards per contest, including 158 on the ground. That running number is pretty impressive, especially when you’ve got Allen and Cook sharing the work. Buffalo has rushed for 790 yards through five games. The defense? That’s where I start getting nervous. The Bills are allowing 28.2 points per game. They’ve given up 141 points already, and opponents have been finding plenty of room through the air. The Rams just moved the football up and down the field Monday night. Buffalo won because its offense kept answering. That’s fine when Allen is playing well, but I wouldn’t want to depend on scoring 35 points every Sunday. Las Vegas has a quarterback who can throw, too. Buffalo needs to get some stops rather than expecting Allen to fix everything.
Allen has thrown for 1,249 yards with seven touchdowns and four interceptions. He’s also rushed for 239 yards and eight touchdowns. Eight rushing scores in five games. That’s ridiculous production from a quarterback. Cook has been excellent as well, picking up 532 rushing yards and five touchdowns on 95 carries. He’s averaging 5.6 yards every time he runs. Dalton Kincaid has caught 16 passes for 277 yards and a touchdown, giving Allen another option when defenses get too worried about the running game. Buffalo does have some injuries. Ed Oliver is dealing with a knee problem, and Joshua Palmer has a shoulder injury. DJ Moore has also been bothered by his shoulder, while Dee Alford and Landon Jackson have appeared on the injury report. Oliver’s absence is particularly concerning when the defense is already giving up so many points. The Bills have enough talent to win without everybody healthy, but they could certainly use a better defensive performance Sunday.
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Las Vegas Raiders Need To Forget About New England
The Raiders are 3-2 on the season and 1-1 at home. They opened with three straight wins, beating Miami 27-13, the Chargers 26-14, and New Orleans 35-27. Not a bad start for Klint Kubiak. Then Kansas City came to town and won 30-27. Last Sunday was much worse. New England beat Las Vegas 45-17, and the Raiders never really had an answer for Maye. He threw four touchdown passes and ran for another. The Patriots piled up 536 yards, while Las Vegas managed 306. That’s quite a beating for a team that had been looking pretty good. I’m not ready to give up on the Raiders after one ugly game, but losing two straight changes the conversation. Now they’ve got Buffalo coming to town. That’s not exactly the opponent I’d want when trying to fix a defense that just surrendered 45 points.
Las Vegas is scoring 26.4 points per game and allowing 25.8. The Raiders have gained 1,678 total offensive yards, averaging 335.6 per contest. Their passing game has been doing most of the work. The running attack has managed only 410 yards through five games, or 82 per outing. That’s a problem against a Buffalo team that can score quickly. You don’t want every possession turning into a passing contest with Allen. Defensively, the Raiders have some talent, particularly when it comes to getting pressure on quarterbacks. Their pass rush has been among the better units in the league at creating pressure. But pressure didn’t help much against New England. Maye threw for 374 yards and four touchdowns, and the Raiders couldn’t keep receivers out of the end zone. Buffalo has its own defensive problems, so I think Las Vegas will move the football. Stopping Allen is what worries me. He’s a different kind of problem when he can beat you with his arm or his legs.
Kirk Cousins has thrown for 1,269 yards with 12 touchdowns and four interceptions. That’s actually pretty good production through five games. He’s completing 65.1% of his passes and has been getting the ball to Brock Bowers. The tight end has 24 catches for 312 yards and three touchdowns. Bowers also scored against New England. Ashton Jeanty leads the running game with 291 yards on 88 carries, but he’s averaging only 3.3 yards per attempt and hasn’t scored a rushing touchdown. He’s been dealing with an ankle problem, which certainly doesn’t help. Las Vegas has other injuries to worry about. Jalen Nailor has been recovering from a concussion, Dont’e Thornton Jr. has a hamstring issue, and Jack Bech remains out with a forearm injury. Defensive lineman Tonka Hemingway also suffered a concussion against New England. Maxx Crosby gives Las Vegas a dangerous pass rusher, but the Raiders need more help around him. Cousins can put points on the board. I’m just not sure his defense can keep Buffalo from doing the same thing a little more often.
Buffalo Bills vs Las Vegas Raiders Picks and Predictions
Against the Spread Pick: Buffalo Bills -5.5
I’m laying the 5.5 points with Buffalo. I know the Bills are playing on a short week after an overtime game, and their defense has been getting pushed around. That’s a concern. But Allen is playing some terrific football. He’s got eight rushing touchdowns already, Cook is averaging 5.6 yards per carry, and Buffalo is putting up 32.8 points a game. Las Vegas just allowed 45 to New England. What do you think Allen is going to do against that defense? The Raiders can pressure quarterbacks, and Crosby could make things uncomfortable if Buffalo has trouble protecting Allen. Cousins has also thrown 12 touchdown passes, so Las Vegas is capable of hanging around. I get that. But the Raiders haven’t been able to run the football, and Jeanty is dealing with an ankle problem. I don’t trust them to keep up with Buffalo for four quarters. The Bills have more ways to score, and Allen is usually the best player on the field. I think Buffalo wins this one by at least a touchdown. Give me the Bills -5.5.
Total Pick: Over 53.5 Points
I’m taking Over 53.5 points. Normally, that’s a pretty high number, but look at these defenses. Buffalo is allowing 28.2 points per game, while Las Vegas is giving up 25.8. That’s 54 points between them. The Bills have scored 37 against the Rams, 41 against Detroit, and 36 against Houston. They’ve been putting up big numbers all season. Cousins has 12 touchdown passes, and Buffalo’s secondary just got carved up by Stafford. I think Bowers could have a big afternoon against that defense. The Raiders haven’t been running the ball well, but they don’t necessarily need to if Cousins can find open receivers. The biggest concern is Las Vegas coming out flat again after that New England beating. Buffalo could also get ahead and spend more time running with Cook, which would eat up the clock. But I don’t see the Bills suddenly becoming a low-scoring team, and the Raiders have enough passing talent to contribute. Something like 34-27 in favor of Buffalo wouldn’t surprise me. I’ll take Over 53.5 points.
Final Picks: Buffalo Bills -5.5 and Over 53.5 Points.
Disclaimer: This preview was prepared October 14, 2026. Betting lines, injuries, and player availability may change before kickoff. Check the latest information before placing a wager.
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