Buffalo Bills vs Minnesota Vikings Picks and Prediction for Monday November 9 2026
Buffalo heads to Minneapolis on Monday night for an 8:15 PM ET game against Minnesota at U.S. Bank Stadium. ESPN and ABC have the coverage. The Bills are favored by three points, and the total has been moving between 43.5 and 46.5 depending on the sportsbook and when the line was posted. Weather won’t matter because this game is being played indoors. Both teams are 6-1, but they’re getting there in completely different ways. Buffalo has the highest-scoring offense in football. Minnesota has the best scoring defense. That’s a good Monday night matchup right there. Get into the NFL action with our free NFL picks.
Buffalo Bills Have Been Scoring on Everybody
Buffalo is 6-1 after beating Baltimore 36-10 in its last game. The Bills have won three straight, and the offense has been rolling. They’ve also beaten the Rams and Raiders during that stretch, although those were much closer games. Buffalo has been able to score in just about every situation, but the defense hasn’t always made life easy.
The Bills are averaging 33.3 points per game, the best mark in the NFL. They’re generating more than 390 yards a night and have been especially dangerous when they create explosive plays. Buffalo is also one of the better rushing teams in football, which is important because Minnesota has been excellent against the pass. Defensively, the Bills are allowing 25.9 points per game. That’s the concern. They’re capable of winning shootouts, but Minnesota wants nothing to do with that kind of game.
Josh Allen is the reason Buffalo’s offense has been so difficult to handle. He can make throws downfield, extend plays, and hurt defenses with his legs. Minnesota loves to blitz, and that creates an interesting matchup. The Bills are missing Joshua Palmer, while Dion Dawkins, Alec Anderson, Greg Gaines, Jordan Hancock, and Tyrell Shavers are questionable. Dawkins is the one I’d watch closely. If Buffalo has trouble protecting Allen’s blind side, Minnesota’s pressure could become a serious problem.
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Minnesota Vikings Have Been Winning With Defense
Minnesota is 6-1 after losing 19-15 to Detroit in its last game. That was the Vikings’ first loss, and they didn’t exactly get much going offensively. Minnesota had beaten Indianapolis 16-10, New Orleans 23-13, and Miami 15-10 before that. You can see the pattern. The Vikings have been winning because their defense keeps opponents from scoring, not because the offense is putting up huge numbers.
Minnesota is averaging only 20 points per game and about 279 yards. That’s near the bottom of the league offensively. But the defense is allowing just 13.3 points per game, the best number in football. The Vikings have also been excellent on third down and in the red zone. They blitz more than any other team in the league, and that pressure has been creating sacks and forcing quarterbacks into mistakes. Against Buffalo, that’s going to be their best chance.
The quarterback situation is a major concern. Kyler Murray is out with a hamstring injury, so Carson Wentz will start. Minnesota is also missing Jauan Jennings and Demond Claiborne, while Theo Jackson and Jay Ward are questionable. Wentz has plenty of experience, but this is a difficult assignment against a Buffalo offense that can score quickly. The Vikings need to protect the football and avoid giving Allen extra possessions.
Buffalo Bills vs Minnesota Vikings Picks and Prediction
Spread Pick: Buffalo Bills -3
I’m laying the three with Buffalo. Minnesota’s defense is outstanding, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Vikings make Allen uncomfortable for much of the night. But the quarterback difference matters. Buffalo is scoring 33.3 points per game, while Minnesota is averaging only 20 and now has to start Wentz. The Bills have some offensive line concerns, and that could make this a closer game than the records suggest. Still, I trust Buffalo to create enough scoring opportunities to win by more than a field goal.
Total Pick: Under 44.5 Points
Give me the under 44.5 if that’s the number. Buffalo’s offense has been scoring more than 33 a game, so I understand why somebody would want the over. But Minnesota is allowing only 13.3, and the Vikings have been keeping opponents from finishing drives. With Wentz starting, I expect Minnesota to lean on its defense and try to keep the game under control. Buffalo could break a couple of big plays and ruin the under quickly. That’s the danger. But I think the Vikings make this a physical game, and Buffalo wins something around 24-17.
Final Picks: Buffalo Bills -3 | Under 44.5 Points (if available)
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