Chicago Bears vs Atlanta Falcons Picks and Predictions for Sunday October 18 2026
The Chicago Bears are heading to Atlanta on Sunday, October 18, 2026, to take on the Falcons at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Kickoff is set for 1:00 PM ET, with FOX carrying the game. Chicago is coming off an ugly 31-7 loss to Green Bay, while Atlanta lost 30-23 in overtime against Baltimore last Sunday night. The Bears are favored by 3.5 points at FanDuel, with the Falcons getting +3.5 at -122. The total is sitting at 49.5 points. The stadium has a retractable roof, but the decision on whether it’ll be open hasn’t been made yet. I’m more interested in the quarterbacks than the weather anyway. Chicago has been playing without Caleb Williams, and Atlanta just watched Michael Penix Jr. leave a game with a rib injury. That’s quite a bit of uncertainty for two teams trying to get back in the win column. Make sure you’re ready for the rest of the NFL action with our free NFL picks.
Chicago Bears Look To Bounce Back After Packers Loss
Chicago comes into this game with a 3-2 record overall and a 1-1 mark on the road. The Bears had won two straight before heading to Green Bay last Sunday, and that game got away from them in a hurry. The Packers won 31-7, with Chicago turning the football over five times. That’s not going to get it done against a division rival. The Bears had beaten the Jets 23-12 the week before and also picked up a 27-7 win over Philadelphia. I thought Chicago was starting to put together some pretty good football before the Green Bay game. The defense had been playing well, and the running game was helping take pressure off the quarterbacks. Then Sunday happened. Ben Johnson has some work to do this week, especially when it comes to finding out who will be healthy enough to play against Atlanta.
The Bears have scored 119 points through five games, which works out to 23.8 per contest. Chicago has also gained 1,962 total offensive yards, averaging 392.4 per game. That’s actually a pretty good number, although the offense hasn’t been nearly as steady since Williams got hurt. The Bears have rushed for 866 yards on the year, averaging 173.2 per game. I expect them to keep running the ball against Atlanta, especially if Bagent ends up starting again. Defensively, Chicago has allowed only 96 points, or 19.2 per game. That’s one of the better scoring defenses in the league right now. The Bears have also recorded 12 sacks and three interceptions. I like what Chicago has been doing on defense for the most part, but giving up 31 points to Green Bay was a rough afternoon. Atlanta has some good offensive players, and the Bears can’t afford another game full of turnovers.
D’Andre Swift has been carrying a good share of Chicago’s running game, picking up 354 rushing yards and four touchdowns on 78 carries. Rome Odunze leads the receiving group with 273 yards on 17 catches. At quarterback, things haven’t gone nearly as planned. Caleb Williams has thrown for 407 yards and two touchdowns in two games, but he’s been out with a hamstring injury since September 20. Tyson Bagent has thrown for 409 yards in three appearances, although he has three interceptions and no touchdowns. He completed only 12 of 21 passes for 87 yards with two picks against Green Bay before Case Keenum replaced him. That’s a problem if Williams isn’t ready Sunday. Chicago also lost linebacker T.J. Edwards and cornerback Tyrique Stevenson to hamstring injuries against the Packers. Montez Sweat has been suspended for two games, taking away a defensive end who has recorded two sacks this year. The Bears could use some good news from their injury report before heading to Atlanta.
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Atlanta Falcons Hope To Get Back On Track At Home
Atlanta is sitting at 2-3 on the season and hasn’t won either of its two home games. That’s a little surprising considering how well the Falcons played during their two road victories. They beat Green Bay 35-14 and followed that up with a 45-24 win against New Orleans. Then Baltimore came to town last Sunday night. Atlanta looked like it was going to get the win, leading 23-15 late in the fourth quarter. The Ravens tied it with 40 seconds left and scored the winning touchdown in overtime. That was a tough one to lose. Atlanta also had Penix leave the game with a rib problem, which didn’t help things in the extra period. I thought the Falcons played well enough to win for most of the night. But giving up those late points and losing at home has to be frustrating for Kevin Stefanski.
The Falcons are scoring 23.8 points per game, the same average as Chicago. Atlanta has gained 1,809 total offensive yards through five games, working out to 361.8 per contest. The running game has been good, putting up 834 yards on the year. That’s an average of 166.8 rushing yards per game, and I think Atlanta will need plenty of that production Sunday. Defensively, the Falcons have allowed 122 points, or 24.4 per game. That’s more than Chicago has given up, but Atlanta has been making some good plays at times. The Falcons have recorded 11 sacks and one interception. What bothers me is how they finished against Baltimore. Atlanta had the lead late and couldn’t get the stops it needed. Still, I like the way the offense has looked with Penix playing, and the Falcons have enough rushing talent to make things difficult for Chicago.
Bijan Robinson has been having a pretty good year for Atlanta. He’s rushed for 580 yards and four touchdowns on 102 carries, averaging 5.7 yards every time he gets the ball. Robinson had 86 rushing yards against Baltimore after putting up 194 against Green Bay and 145 against New Orleans. That’s some impressive work. Drake London has been another important part of the offense, picking up 488 receiving yards on 27 catches. He had seven receptions for 118 yards against the Ravens. Michael Penix Jr. has thrown for 719 yards with three touchdowns and one interception in his three starts, but his rib injury is something to watch. Tua Tagovailoa would be the likely replacement if Penix can’t play. Atlanta also has some injuries on defense, with A.J. Terrell on injured reserve and Za’Darius Smith dealing with a concussion. I think the Falcons have enough talent to win this game at home, but I’d feel a lot better about it if Penix is cleared to start.
Chicago Bears vs Atlanta Falcons Picks and Predictions
Against the Spread Pick: Atlanta Falcons +3.5
I’m going with Atlanta getting 3.5 points at home. I know the Falcons haven’t won at Mercedes-Benz Stadium this season, and that’s not exactly something to brag about. But they’ve played some good football lately, especially with Penix running the offense. Atlanta has a strong running game with Robinson, and I expect Stefanski to keep giving him the football against Chicago. The Bears have the better scoring defense, but they just gave up 31 points to Green Bay and turned the ball over five times. That’s a lot of mistakes to clean up in one week. Chicago could get Williams back, and that would make the Bears much more dangerous than they looked last Sunday. The biggest concern for Atlanta is Penix. If he’s out, I wouldn’t like this pick nearly as much. Still, getting more than a field goal at home is worth considering when both teams have questions at quarterback. I think Robinson can keep Atlanta’s offense moving, and the Falcons should have a chance to win this game outright. Give me Atlanta +3.5.
Total Pick: Under 49.5 Points
I’m taking the under here, mainly because of the quarterback situations. Chicago has been struggling to throw the football without Williams, and Bagent didn’t look good against Green Bay. Atlanta has been scoring more when Penix plays, but the Falcons could have some trouble if he’s limited by his ribs or can’t go Sunday. Both teams have been running the football pretty well. Chicago is averaging 173.2 rushing yards per game, while Atlanta is putting up 166.8. I’d expect both coaches to use that part of the offense quite a bit, especially if they don’t have their starting quarterbacks at full strength. The running game could help keep the clock moving and cut down on the number of possessions. Chicago’s defense has also been allowing only 19.2 points per contest, which is another reason I like the under. The biggest worry is Atlanta’s defense giving up 24.4 points per game, along with the possibility of Williams returning and giving Chicago’s passing game a boost. But I don’t see both offenses being completely healthy, and that makes 49.5 look a little high to me. Something around 24-21 sounds reasonable. I’ll take Under 49.5 points.
Final Picks: Atlanta Falcons +3.5 and Under 49.5 Points.
Disclaimer: This preview was prepared October 14, 2026. Betting lines, quarterback availability, injuries and other game information can change before kickoff. Check the latest information before placing a wager.
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