Dallas Cowboys vs Houston Texans Picks and Predictions for Sunday October 4 2026
The Dallas Cowboys visit the Houston Texans at Reliant Stadium in Houston, Texas, on Sunday, October 4, 2026. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00 PM ET with coverage on FOX. Dallas enters after a narrow 34-31 loss to Baltimore, while Houston remains winless following a 19-17 loss at Indianapolis. The Texans are currently approximately 2.5-point home favorites, with Houston around -142 on the moneyline and Dallas around +122. Be sure to check out our free NFL picks for more NFL predictions throughout the season.
Cowboys Showing More Offensive Life
Dallas came up short against Baltimore last week, but scoring 31 points in a 34-31 defeat was an encouraging development for an offense that will need to carry a significant portion of the workload this season.
The Cowboys have shown the ability to create explosive offensive stretches, but their defense remains a concern. Baltimore reached 34 points last week, and Dallas cannot continue asking its offense to win games that consistently move into the 30s.
Houston presents an interesting matchup because the Texans have struggled offensively. That gives Dallas an opportunity to play a more balanced game rather than feeling pressure to score on nearly every possession. If the Cowboys can reach the mid-20s, they should have a legitimate opportunity to win outright.
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Texans Facing Early-Season Pressure
Houston enters at 0-3 after losing 19-17 to Indianapolis. The Texans have now dropped games to Buffalo, Cincinnati and Indianapolis, and their inability to generate consistent offense has quickly become the defining problem of their season.
Houston’s rushing attack has struggled to establish itself, which has increased the pressure on the passing game. The Texans have also dealt with important personnel issues on offense, making sustained drives more difficult than expected entering the year.
The defense is the reason Houston remains favored. The Texans have enough talent on that side of the football to make Dallas work, but laying points with an 0-3 team that has repeatedly struggled to score creates considerable risk.
Dallas Cowboys vs Houston Texans Picks and Prediction
Pick: Dallas Cowboys +2.5
Houston may have the stronger defense, but Dallas is getting points against a team that hasn’t won a game. The Cowboys scored 31 against Baltimore last week, while Houston managed only 17 against Indianapolis. Dallas doesn’t need to dominate defensively to cover this number. If the Cowboys can reach 24 or 27 points, Houston’s offense may have difficulty keeping pace. Take the points with Dallas in a game the Cowboys have a legitimate chance to win outright.
Pick: Over 44.5 If Available
Dallas’ defensive issues make the Over attractive if the market settles around 44.5. The Cowboys just played a 65-point game against Baltimore and have demonstrated enough offensive capability to score into the 20s against Houston. The Texans haven’t produced much offense yet, but Dallas represents an opportunity for improvement. A 27-24 type of result is realistic and would put this comfortably above a mid-40s total.
Final Picks: Dallas Cowboys +2.5 and Over 44.5 if the total is set there
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