Detroit Lions at Indianapolis Colts Picks and Prediction for Saturday, August 29, 2026
Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis hosts Preseason Week 3 at 1:00 PM ET on NFL Network as the Detroit Lions (1-1) visit the Indianapolis Colts (0-1-1) in the final preseason game before the roster cut deadline at 6:00 PM ET on Sunday, August 30, giving every player in this game literally 24 hours to make their case for a spot on the 53-man roster. The NFL's official roster cut deadline is August 30 at 6 PM ET, and with the Lions playing the Colts on Saturday afternoon, they have merely 24 hours to finalize 53 players from the current 90-man squad. The coaching philosophy divergence between these two teams heading into Saturday is the most important pre-game information available, and it points toward one of the clearest individual team advantages on the entire preseason finale board. Read on to find out who takes the W in our Lions vs. Colts preseason prediction. Get our top NFL Predictions and increase your bankroll!
Colts: Richardson Confirmed to Start the First Quarter, Steichen Has a Specific Plan
Shane Steichen has laid out a specific and confirmed rotation for his Colts. Anthony Richardson starts and plays the entire first quarter with many of Indianapolis's starters, who are expected to play between 8 and 12 snaps. Riley Leonard takes over in the second quarter. Easton Stick finishes the game. Daniel Jones, who was named the Colts' starting quarterback for the 2026 regular season, will not play.
That confirmation is the most important piece of pre-game information available on Saturday's board. A head coach committing to giving his key veterans meaningful first-quarter reps to build regular-season rhythm before shutting them down for the rest of the game creates an enormous early-game quality differential against a Lions backup rotation. The Colts have real motivation heading into this game, they finished 2025 by allowing games to slip away late, with a 61.3 passer rating in the fourth quarter that was the lowest in the entire NFL. Steichen wants his starters to get rhythm, and Richardson isn't going to be careful and conservative — he's going to be looking to build chemistry with Michael Pittman Jr., Josh Downs, and Alec Pierce, running the offense at real NFL speed.
Indianapolis starters against Detroit backups is a talent mismatch that shows up on the scoreboard. If Indianapolis builds a 10-3 or 14-3 lead in the first quarter, their backup rotation only needs to hold serve against Detroit's backup rotation to cover the number. The Colts are coming off a rough 6-34 loss to the Falcons, a result that stings enough to give their starters extra motivation to deliver a strong final tune-up before the regular season opener.
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Lions: Campbell Rests Everyone, Josh Dobbs or Luke Altmyer Gets the Start, Roster Bubble the Only Story
Dan Campbell is expected to rest the starters yet again, especially given the string of injuries in different positions throughout the training camp. Hence, several players on the roster bubble will play against the Colts, knowing it could be their final audition. Jared Goff will not play. Neither will any of the other Lions starters.
Detroit has been extremely consistent about this approach throughout the Campbell era, the preseason finale is treated as an evaluation game for backups and roster-bubble players only. The Lions will be starting Josh Dobbs or Luke Altmyer against Indianapolis's first-team defense. That is the single most important matchup context on the Saturday board: a Lions backup quarterback making his case for a practice squad spot against Anthony Richardson and Indianapolis's starting defensive front.
The Lions finished 2025 as the NFC's best team and return with largely the same core heading into 2026. That organizational confidence is exactly why Campbell feels comfortable not exposing his starters to injury risk in a meaningless third preseason game, but it also means Saturday's Lions are a fundamentally different competitive proposition from the team that the 1-1 preseason record suggests. Detroit has been a high-volume passing team in their finale as they have battles at quarterback and wide receiver, the evaluation purpose of Saturday's game is clear, and it produces the kind of uneven, turnover-prone backup-quarterback performance that the Colts' first-team defense will feast on in the opening frame.
Lions vs. Colts Picks
- Money Line Pick: Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis starters against Detroit backups is a talent mismatch that shows up on the scoreboard. The stake should be minimal, but Steichen's confirmed first-quarter starter rotation gives the Colts an opening-period quality advantage that no Lions backup quarterback can neutralize. Richardson building chemistry with Pittman Jr. against Detroit's bubble-player defensive secondary is the most favorable individual matchup on Saturday's entire preseason slate. Stake half a unit and take the Colts to win.
- Over/Under Pick: Under 36.5
I am leaning Under the point total, and the structural case is overwhelming. Once Richardson exits after the first quarter, the game becomes a pure backup-versus-backup evaluation exercise, the same vanilla play-calling, conservative game management, and turnover-heavy incompleteness that defines every Preseason Week 3 second through fourth quarter in the NFL. The Under at -120 reflects the market's clear read on what happens when two backup-quarterback rotations trade possessions for three quarters in a game where neither side is motivated to throw deep or extend drives. The Lions' approach, pure roster evaluation, specifically produces the three-and-outs and punts that keep the scoring ceiling well below 36.5. Take the Under.
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