Green Bay Packers vs New England Patriots Picks and Prediction for Sunday November 8 2026
Green Bay heads to Foxborough on Sunday afternoon for a 4:25 PM ET game against the Patriots at Gillette Stadium. FOX has the coverage. New England is favored by three points, and the total is 44.5. The weather looks pretty reasonable for November in Massachusetts. We’re expecting around 57 degrees at kickoff, falling into the upper 40s, with very little chance of rain. Winds should run around 6 to 8 mph, with gusts around 18 early. That’s not enough to make me throw out either team’s passing game. Both clubs are 5-3, and I think this is one of the better games on Sunday’s schedule. Be ready for all the action on Sunday with our free NFL picks.
Green Bay Packers Need More Balance on Offense
Green Bay is 5-3, including 2-2 on the road, after beating Carolina 27-19 on October 29. The Packers have won four of their last five games, with the only loss coming against Detroit. They’ve been getting results, but the offense hasn’t always looked particularly smooth. Green Bay has been relying heavily on its passing game, and that’s something New England can try to exploit.
The Packers are averaging 21.4 points per game and allowing 20.5. They’re generating around 332 yards per game, but the rushing attack has been struggling. Green Bay is averaging only about 61 rushing yards a night. That’s not a great number when you’re facing a Patriots defense that’s been pretty solid. If the Packers can’t run the ball, New England can concentrate on making the passing game uncomfortable.
Jordan Love has thrown for 2,246 yards with 16 touchdowns and six interceptions. Christian Watson has 42 catches for 708 yards and six scores, so Green Bay can certainly make big plays through the air. But Micah Parsons is out, and Aaron Banks, Watson, Keisean Nixon, and MarShawn Lloyd have been dealing with injuries. Sean Rhyan is also out. Those absences matter, particularly along the offensive line and on defense.
Sign Up Get $30 Premium Picks Credit + Exclusive Offers
Subscribe Now
New England Patriots Have Been Tough at Home
New England is 5-3, including 3-0 at home, after beating Miami 24-19 last Sunday. The Patriots have been playing some pretty good football, and they’re starting to look like a team that can compete in the AFC. They aren’t blowing everybody out, but they’re finding ways to win close games. That’s important against a Green Bay team that has also been involved in plenty of tight contests.
The Patriots are averaging 23 points per game and allowing 20.3. They’re generating about 367 yards per game, which is considerably more than Green Bay. New England has also been better on the ground, averaging more than 120 rushing yards. That’s a big difference in this matchup. The Patriots can run the ball, control the clock, and keep Green Bay’s passing attack on the sideline.
Drake Maye has thrown for 1,983 yards with 15 touchdowns and eight interceptions. Rhamondre Stevenson has rushed for 367 yards, while DeMario Douglas has 26 catches for 332 yards and four touchdowns. Those numbers show New England has enough offensive balance to make Green Bay defend the entire field. A.J. Brown and TreVeyon Henderson are out, while Hunter Henry, Carlton Davis III, and Kevin Byard have been dealing with availability questions. The Patriots aren’t completely healthy, but they’ve been getting enough production to win.
Green Bay Packers vs New England Patriots Picks and Prediction
Spread Pick: New England Patriots -3 (-116)
I’m laying the three with New England. Green Bay has been winning, and Love can absolutely make this uncomfortable if he gets time to throw. But the Packers have been struggling to run the ball, and that’s a problem against a Patriots team that’s been good at home. New England has the better offensive balance, and the defense has been allowing just over 20 points per game. I think the Patriots control enough of the game on the ground to keep Green Bay from getting into a rhythm. Give me New England by four or five.
Total Pick: Under 44.5 (-108)
Give me the under 44.5. Both defenses are allowing around 20 points per game, and neither offense has been consistently explosive. Green Bay is averaging only 21.4 points, while New England is at 23. The Patriots should be able to run the ball and shorten the game, especially if Green Bay can’t get much going on the ground. The danger is Love hitting a couple of long passes or Maye making something happen outside the pocket. Both quarterbacks can do that. But I think this is more of a 23-17 or 24-20 kind of game than a shootout.
Final Picks: New England Patriots -3 (-116) | Under 44.5 (-108)
Betting on the NFL?
- Be sure to look our our list of the best NFL online sportsbooks
- Grow your bankroll by claiming one of our favorite NFL sportsbook promo codes
Get Up to $1,000 Back in Bonus Bets Over Your First 10 Days
New Users - Get $200 in Bonus Bets when you wager $5 for 4 days
New DraftKings Customers: Bet $5, Get $200 + 3 Months of NBA League Pass
