Green Bay Packers vs New York Jets Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Sunday September 20 2026
After taking a two-score lead into the locker room at halftime, the Packers were outscored 22-0 in the fourth quarter in a 39-22 loss at Minnesota, and that late collapse is a major storyline for anyone breaking down Packers vs Jets picks this week. On the other side, Gang Green looked like a professional football team for the first time in quite a while, and the total appears to be where the real value sits in this one. For more matchups this week, check out our full slate of NFL picks before placing a wager.
TLDR: Quick Picks and Prediction
- Spread Pick: Green Bay Packers -3.5
- Total Pick: Under 44.5
- Projected Final Score: Packers 24, Jets 17
Odds and Line Movement
Current Odds
| Market | Line | Public Betting ($, #) |
|---|---|---|
| Spread (Green Bay / N.Y. Jets) | GB -3.5 (-115) / NYJ +3.5 (-105) | NYJ 53%, GB 68% |
| Total (Over / Under) | Over 44.5 (-110) / Under 44.5 (-110) | UN 62%, OV 60% |
Line Movement - Spread
| Date | Green Bay | N.Y. Jets | Public Betting ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/17 | -3.5 (-115) | +3.5 (-105) | NYJ 53%, GB 68% |
| 09/17 | -3.5 (-110) | +3.5 (-110) | NYJ 53%, GB 68% |
| 09/16 | -3.5 (-112) | +3.5 (-108) | NYJ 70%, GB 64% |
| 09/16 | -3.5 (-110) | +3.5 (-110) | NYJ 70%, GB 64% |
| 09/16 | -3.5 (-105) | +3.5 (-115) | NYJ 70%, GB 64% |
| 09/16 | -3.5 (-110) | +3.5 (-110) | NYJ 70%, GB 64% |
| 09/16 | -3 (-118) | +3 (-102) | NYJ 70%, GB 64% |
| 09/15 | -4.5 (+100) | +4.5 (-120) | GB 75%, GB 67% |
| 09/15 | -3.5 (-110) | +3.5 (-110) | GB 75%, GB 67% |
| 09/15 | -4.5 (-102) | +4.5 (-118) | GB 75%, GB 67% |
| 09/15 | -4.5 (-105) | +4.5 (-115) | GB 75%, GB 67% |
| 09/15 | -3.5 (-115) | +3.5 (-105) | GB 75%, GB 67% |
| 09/15 | -3.5 (-110) | +3.5 (-110) | GB 75%, GB 67% |
| 09/15 | -4.5 (-105) | +4.5 (-115) | GB 75%, GB 67% |
| 09/14 | -4.5 (-102) | +4.5 (-118) | GB 67%, GB 67% |
| 09/14 | -4.5 (-105) | +4.5 (-115) | GB 67%, GB 67% |
| 09/14 | -3.5 (-112) | +3.5 (-108) | GB 67%, GB 67% |
| 09/14 | -4.5 (-105) | +4.5 (-115) | GB 66%, GB 67% |
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Over | Under | Public Betting ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/16 | 44.5 (-110) | 44.5 (-110) | UN 62%, OV 60% |
| 09/14 | 44.5 (-112) | 44.5 (-108) | OV 100%, OV 100% |
| 09/14 | 45.5 (-105) | 45.5 (-115) | OV 100%, OV 100% |
| 09/13 | 45.5 (-110) | 45.5 (-110) | OV 100%, OV 100% |
| 09/13 | 44.5 (-110) | 44.5 (-110) | OV 100%, OV 100% |
| 09/13 | 43.5 (-110) | 43.5 (-110) | OV 100%, OV 100% |
| 08/30 | 42.5 (-110) | 42.5 (-110) | N/A |
Packers vs Jets Key Matchups and Game Preview
Packers Collapse Late in Minnesota
After taking a two-score lead into the locker room at halftime, the Packers were outscored 22-0 in the fourth quarter in a 39-22 loss at Minnesota. Jordan Love threw for 387 yards and two touchdowns, but he did not get any help from the offensive line or rushing attack down the stretch, and that lack of support turned a comfortable lead into a defeat.
Green Bay's Offensive Line Concerns Mount
With Josh Jacobs suspended, MarShawn Lloyd and Chris Brooks combined for just 66 rushing yards on 20 carries, a modest 3.3 yards per carry, with no catches out of the backfield. Green Bay went 3-of-12 on third down, turned the ball over twice, Love was sacked four times, and the Packers committed 12 penalties for 98 yards as the wheels fell off in the second half.
NYJ Finally Looks the Part
On the Jets' side, Gang Green looked like a professional football team for the first time in quite a while. New York has had a talented roster for a while, but too often the Jets have looked like a team that did not practice during the week. That was not the case in Nashville, as New York earned a wire-to-wire win over the Titans.
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Jets Defense Shines in Nashville
Geno Smith was not sacked and the Jets did not turn the ball over, which is music to the ears of second-year head coach Aaron Glenn. That kind of clean, mistake-free performance is exactly what New York has been missing in recent seasons, and it carries real weight heading into this matchup.
Packers Total Under the Microscope
Power ratings are in line with where this game has opened, but the total is where the real interest lies. Green Bay has some massive concerns on the offensive line right now after Love was sacked four times against the Vikings. The Packers' defense did its job for three quarters, holding Minnesota to 239 total yards on 3.9 yards per play, and teams that generate 3.9 yards per play typically do not score 39 points the way the Vikings did. As of Monday night, there are a handful of 45s in the market, yet the Jets have not played a game with a closing total of 45 points since Week 5 of last season.
Betting Trends: GB vs NYJ
- Green Bay led by two scores at halftime before being outscored 22-0 in the fourth quarter of a 39-22 loss at Minnesota.
- Jordan Love threw for 387 yards and two touchdowns but was sacked four times and the Packers turned the ball over twice.
- Green Bay went just 3-of-12 on third down and committed 12 penalties for 98 yards in the second-half collapse.
- MarShawn Lloyd and Chris Brooks combined for only 66 rushing yards on 20 carries with Josh Jacobs suspended.
- New York earned a wire-to-wire win over the Titans, with Geno Smith not sacked and the Jets committing zero turnovers.
- The spread has moved between Green Bay -3 and Green Bay -4.5 over the past week before settling at -3.5.
- The total has ranged from 42.5 to 45.5 before settling at 44.5, and the Jets have not closed a game at 45 points since Week 5 of last season.
Key Injuries and Things To Know: GB and NYJ
- Josh Jacobs is suspended for Green Bay, forcing MarShawn Lloyd and Chris Brooks into the backfield.
- Jordan Love was sacked four times in Week 1 amid ongoing offensive line concerns.
- Green Bay's defense held Minnesota to 239 total yards and 3.9 yards per play before the offense's collapse changed the game.
- Geno Smith was not sacked in New York's win over the Titans.
- The Jets did not commit a turnover in their Week 1 victory.
Packers vs Jets Side and Over/Under Picks
- Spread: Green Bay Packers -3.5
- Total: Under 44.5
Power ratings line up closely with where this game opened, so there is little edge being chased on the spread itself. The total is a different story. Green Bay's defense limited Minnesota to just 3.9 yards per play, and a Packers offense that struggles up front is unlikely to push this game into shootout territory. With the Jets not having closed a game at 45 points since Week 5 of last season, the market number of 45 looks like a number worth fading.
Final Score Prediction
- Green Bay Packers: 24
- New York Jets: 17
Expect Green Bay's defense to bounce back after a shaky fourth quarter in Minnesota while the Packers' offensive line issues and a disciplined Jets defense combine to keep this game under the total.
How to Wager On Packers vs Jets
Bettors looking to shop for the best number on Packers vs Jets have several tools available before placing a wager. Comparing the spread and total across multiple sportsbooks can help secure better value than settling for a single closing line, especially with a total that has moved several points this week. For those who want an extra layer of analysis before betting this matchup, our AI picks breakdown is a useful starting point. Bettors can also dig deeper with our Dimers review and Oddible review to see how different models project this matchup before locking in a side, total, or player prop.
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