Green Bay Packers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Picks and Predictions for Sunday October 4 2026
The Green Bay Packers visit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida, on Sunday, October 4, 2026. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00 PM ET with coverage on FOX. Green Bay enters at 1-2 after a disappointing 35-14 home loss to Atlanta, while Tampa Bay fell to 0-3 following a 23-16 loss to Minnesota. The Packers are currently around 3.5-point road favorites, with Green Bay approximately -194 on the moneyline, Tampa Bay +162, and the total around 39.5. Be sure to check out our free NFL picks for more NFL predictions throughout the season.
Packers Need a Response
Green Bay’s season has started far differently than expected. The Packers dropped to 1-2 after being beaten 35-14 by Atlanta at home, putting immediate pressure on them to respond before the NFC North race begins getting away from them.
The offense has been particularly inconsistent. Green Bay has struggled to establish its running game and scored only 14 points against Atlanta. The Packers have enough passing-game talent to be considerably better, but protection and offensive-line concerns have prevented the unit from consistently finding rhythm.
This matchup provides an opportunity to recover. Tampa Bay is winless and enters with significant quarterback concerns. Green Bay shouldn’t need an explosive offensive performance if its defense can take advantage of a Buccaneers offense forced to make a major change behind center.
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Buccaneers Lose Their Starting Quarterback
Tampa Bay’s 0-3 start became even more difficult following its 23-16 loss to Minnesota. The Buccaneers lost their starting quarterback to a dislocated thumb on his throwing hand, an injury expected to keep him sidelined for multiple weeks.
That leaves Tampa Bay preparing to start an inexperienced replacement against Green Bay. The Buccaneers are also dealing with additional injuries at receiver, further reducing the margin for error for an offense that was already struggling to consistently generate points.
The Buccaneers do have home field and face a Green Bay team that has hardly looked dominant. Tampa Bay’s best chance is keeping the game low scoring, creating turnovers and avoiding situations in which its inexperienced quarterback has to chase multiple scores.
Green Bay Packers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Picks and Prediction
Pick: Green Bay Packers -3.5
Green Bay hasn’t earned much confidence through three weeks, but the matchup heavily favors the Packers. Tampa Bay is 0-3 and will be without its starting quarterback because of a thumb injury. Asking an inexperienced replacement to immediately produce against Green Bay is a difficult assignment. The Packers should be able to lean on their defense, create advantageous field position and generate enough offense to win by more than a field goal.
Pick: Under 39.5
The quarterback situation pushes this toward the Under. Tampa Bay scored only 16 points against Minnesota before losing its starter, while Green Bay managed just 14 against Atlanta. The Packers have little reason to turn this into a high-tempo game if they gain an early advantage. Tampa Bay should also emphasize protecting its inexperienced quarterback. A 23-13 or 24-14 Green Bay victory fits the matchup and stays below 39.5.
Final Picks: Green Bay Packers -3.5 and Under 39.5
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