Houston Texans vs Jacksonville Jaguars Picks and Predictions for Sunday October 18 2026
The Houston Texans have a long trip ahead of them this week. They’re headed to London to face the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday, October 18, 2026, at Wembley Stadium. Kickoff is scheduled for 9:30 AM ET, with NFL Network carrying the game. Houston finally got its first win last Sunday, beating Tennessee 26-3. Jacksonville had a tougher afternoon in London but managed to knock off Philadelphia 19-17 on a last-second field goal. The Jaguars are favored by 2.5 points at FanDuel, with the total sitting at 42.5. The location is worth remembering. Jacksonville has already spent a week in England, while Houston has to deal with the travel and time change. I’m not convinced that gives the Jaguars some enormous advantage, but it certainly doesn’t hurt. Jacksonville has been playing better football, and that defense has been difficult to score against. Houston might be getting itself straightened out. One win over Tennessee isn’t enough to convince me just yet. Make sure you check out all of our free NFL picks.
Houston Texans Finally Have Something To Build On
Houston heads into Sunday’s game with a 1-4 record, including a 1-1 mark on the road. The Texans lost their first four games, and things were starting to get ugly around DeMeco Ryans and his football team. They finally broke through last weekend with a 26-3 win at Tennessee. It wasn’t a masterpiece offensively, but the defense looked like the unit Houston expected to have when the season started. The Titans managed only 187 total yards. A week earlier, the Texans had lost 34-30 to Dallas despite getting 347 passing yards from C.J. Stroud. Before that came losses to Indianapolis, Cincinnati and Buffalo. Houston has been in some close games, but close doesn’t help much when you’re sitting at the bottom of the division. I liked the way the Texans responded against Tennessee. They needed that win badly. Now we’ll find out whether it was the beginning of something or simply a good afternoon against a winless team.
The Texans are averaging 22 points per game and allowing 22.4. That’s a fairly narrow scoring margin for a team with only one victory. Houston has been moving the football better than its record suggests, averaging 359.4 total yards per game. Most of that production comes through the air, with 280.4 passing yards per contest. The running game has been another matter. Houston averages just 79 rushing yards, and that’s not going to make life easy for Stroud against a defense like Jacksonville’s. The Texans have been pretty good defending the run themselves, allowing 78.4 yards per game. Opponents have found more room throwing the football, with Houston surrendering 256.2 passing yards per contest. The defense allowed 36 points against Buffalo and 34 against Dallas, so I wouldn’t declare everything fixed after holding Tennessee to three. Jacksonville is a much better test. The Jaguars have been protecting the football and finishing drives. Houston can’t afford another afternoon where the offense spends long stretches doing very little.
Stroud has thrown for 1,402 yards with six touchdowns and no interceptions. That’s one thing I like about his season. Houston hasn’t been winning, but its quarterback hasn’t been giving the football away through the air. Stroud completed 26 of 34 passes for 261 yards and a touchdown against Tennessee. He also ran for a score. Nico Collins leads the receiving group with 249 yards and three touchdowns on 19 catches. Woody Marks has rushed for 149 yards and two scores, although he’s averaging only 3.5 yards per carry. That’s not much help when the offense needs a dependable rushing attack. Will Anderson Jr. has been doing his part on defense, recording 7.5 sacks through five games. Three came against Tennessee. Azeez Al-Shaair leads the team with 42 tackles. Houston also made a big move this week by trading for Marvin Harrison Jr., reuniting him with his former Ohio State quarterback. I’m interested to see how quickly that connection develops. The Texans have injuries to work around, including Braden Smith’s foot problem and David Montgomery’s groin injury. Tank Dell is also sidelined with a knee injury. Houston needed another receiving option, but protecting Stroud and finding some rushing yards are still pretty important.
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Jacksonville Jaguars Have Been Winning Without Much Fuss
Jacksonville is 4-1 and sits atop the AFC South. The Jaguars have won three straight games since their 20-13 loss to Denver, and they’ve been doing it in different ways. They beat New England 35-6, handled Cincinnati 22-17 and then survived Philadelphia 19-17 last Sunday in London. That Eagles game was a strange one. Jacksonville committed penalties, dealt with injuries and still found a way to win when Cam Little connected on a 57-yard field goal as time expired. Trevor Lawrence threw for 331 yards and two touchdowns. It wasn’t pretty football from beginning to end, but nobody in Jacksonville will spend much time complaining about a win over Philadelphia. Liam Coen has his team in a good position. The Jaguars already have four victories, and another win Sunday would put Houston even further behind in the division. They’ve also had the benefit of staying in London rather than making another long flight. I wouldn’t underestimate how useful a normal week of preparation could be.
The Jaguars are averaging 24.6 points per game while allowing only 14. That’s the number that catches my attention. Jacksonville has given up 70 points in five games, and 20 of those came in its only loss. The offense averages 349 yards per contest, including 234.8 through the air and 114.2 on the ground. Those aren’t overwhelming figures, but the Jaguars haven’t needed to score 35 points every week. Their defense has been doing plenty of the work. Jacksonville allows 341 total yards per game, which might seem high for a team giving up only 14 points. Opponents have gained 277.2 passing yards per contest, so there is room for Stroud to move the football. Getting into the end zone has been another story. The Jaguars are allowing just 63.8 rushing yards per game. That’s a bad matchup for a Houston offense already struggling to run. I think Jacksonville will be comfortable letting Stroud throw the football and making the Texans prove they can finish drives. Houston has had trouble doing that consistently.
Lawrence has passed for 1,174 yards with 10 touchdowns and three interceptions. He’s been playing good football, although there are still afternoons when he makes things harder than necessary. Against Philadelphia, Lawrence completed 24 of 39 passes for 331 yards, two touchdowns and an interception. Parker Washington leads Jacksonville’s receivers with 352 yards and four touchdowns on 22 catches. Bhayshul Tuten has carried the ball 82 times for 349 yards and two scores. He’s averaging 4.3 yards per attempt, a good deal better than what Houston has been getting from its running backs. Foye Oluokun leads Jacksonville with 34 tackles, while Travon Walker has recorded two sacks. The Jaguars do have a serious injury problem on the offensive line. Starting left tackle Anton Harrison hurt his knee against Philadelphia and is expected to undergo surgery. Walker Little will take his place. That’s not an ideal situation when Anderson is coming off a three-sack game. Eric Murray has also been dealing with a concussion, while Montaric Brown and Jaylon Jones have been listed with hamstring injuries. Jacksonville has the better record, but there’s enough going on with the offensive line and secondary to give Houston some hope.
Houston Texans vs Jacksonville Jaguars Picks and Predictions
Against the Spread Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars -2.5
I’m taking Jacksonville laying 2.5 points. Houston looked much better against Tennessee, and I’ll give the Texans credit for finally getting a win. The defense was excellent, Stroud protected the football and Anderson spent much of the afternoon making life miserable for the Titans. The problem is that Jacksonville isn’t Tennessee. The Jaguars have won four of five games and are allowing only 14 points per contest. Houston is rushing for just 79 yards a game, while Jacksonville gives up fewer than 64. That’s a difficult combination for the Texans. Stroud could have a big passing afternoon, especially against a Jaguars defense allowing more than 277 yards through the air. That’s what worries me about laying points. The other concern is Harrison’s injury. Anderson could make things uncomfortable for Lawrence if Jacksonville struggles to protect its quarterback. But the Jaguars have the better running game, a defense that has been keeping opponents out of the end zone and the advantage of already being settled in London. Houston hasn’t shown me enough to overlook all of that. I think Jacksonville wins this game by at least a field goal. Give me the Jaguars -2.5.
Total Pick: Under 42.5 Points
I’ll take Under 42.5 points. Jacksonville has allowed only 14 points per game, and Houston is coming off a performance where it held Tennessee to three. I’m not expecting another defensive shutout, but both teams have some things working against them offensively. Houston can’t run the football very well, and Jacksonville has been excellent at stopping the run. The Texans may have to throw the ball 35 or 40 times just to keep drives moving. Stroud is capable of doing that, but the Jaguars have been good at making opponents settle for less than they want. Jacksonville has its own concern with Harrison out at left tackle. Anderson has 7.5 sacks this season, and I don’t think Lawrence will enjoy seeing him across the line of scrimmage with a replacement protecting his blind side. The biggest danger to this pick is Stroud carving up Jacksonville’s secondary. Houston has been throwing for 280.4 yards per game, and the Jaguars have allowed plenty of passing yards. Lawrence can also put points up quickly when he’s comfortable. I just don’t expect either team to get everything it wants offensively. These division games can get ugly, and Houston has a long trip to deal with on top of everything else. A 23-17 Jacksonville win sounds about right to me. I’ll play Under 42.5 points.
Final Picks: Jacksonville Jaguars -2.5 and Under 42.5 Points.
Disclaimer: This preview was prepared October 14, 2026. Betting lines, injuries, player availability and other game information may change before kickoff. Check the latest information before placing a wager.
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