Houston Texans vs Tennessee Titans Picks and Predictions for Sunday October 11 2026
The Houston Texans visit the Tennessee Titans at Nissan Stadium in Nashville, Tennessee, on Sunday, October 11, 2026. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00 PM ET. Houston enters at 0-4 after losing 34-30 to Dallas, while Tennessee is also searching for its first victory after a 24-18 loss at Baltimore. Despite Houston’s winless start, the Texans are currently around 7-point road favorites, with the total sitting between 38.5 and 39.5 points depending on the sportsbook. Be sure to check out our free NFL picks for more NFL predictions throughout the season.
Houston Finally Showed Some Offensive Life
An 0-4 record is impossible to ignore, but Sunday’s 34-30 loss to Dallas was at least a different type of defeat for Houston. The Texans finally generated enough offense to give themselves a legitimate chance to win before falling short.
The larger problem is that Houston keeps finding different ways to lose. The Texans have struggled defensively, had trouble closing games and now find themselves facing significant pressure before October is even halfway finished.
This matchup is considerably more favorable than what Houston saw last week. Tennessee has struggled to score, and the Texans shouldn’t need another 30-point performance to finally earn their first victory.
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Tennessee Has Kept Games Closer Than Expected
The Titans are also winless, but they deserve some credit for competing. Tennessee lost 24-18 at Baltimore last week and is 2-0 against the spread this season when catching at least seven points.
That matters with Houston laying a touchdown or more on the road. The Texans haven’t covered a spread this season, and asking an 0-4 team to win comfortably away from home requires considerably more faith than simply believing Houston is the better team.
Tennessee’s offense remains the concern. The Titans haven’t shown enough explosiveness to make them trustworthy outright, but their ability to stay within games makes the points valuable.
Houston Texans vs Tennessee Titans Picks and Predictions
Pick: Tennessee Titans +7
I’m taking the touchdown with Tennessee. Houston is the better team on paper and should probably win, but laying seven on the road with an 0-4 team that hasn’t covered all season is too much for me. Tennessee has covered both times it has been an underdog of seven or more and just stayed within six at Baltimore. The Titans don’t need to play great football to cash this ticket; they simply need another competitive performance.
Pick: Under 39.5
The Under 39.5 is the total pick. Houston’s 34-30 game against Dallas was an outlier compared with the way Tennessee prefers to play, and only one Titans game has gone Over this season. Tennessee should try to shorten the game and prevent Houston from creating another shootout. With two winless teams desperate to avoid mistakes, a 20-17 or 23-16 type of game makes more sense than another Houston track meet.
Final Picks: Tennessee Titans +7 and Under 39.5
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