Indianapolis Colts vs Jacksonville Jaguars Picks and Prediction for Sunday November 1 2026
Jacksonville is laying ten and a half points. That’s a lot for an NFL game, especially against a division rival.
But have you looked at what’s going on in Indianapolis?
The Colts are 2-5, they’ve already traded away two important veterans, and now they’re heading into Jacksonville against a Jaguars team that’s been playing pretty good football. I don’t love laying double digits in the NFL. Never have. But I can see why the number is this big.
Indianapolis visits EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville, Florida, Sunday at 1 PM ET on CBS. The Jaguars are favored by 10.5 points, with a total of 46.5. The weather could matter. Expect around 75 degrees, winds near 14 mph with gusts reaching 22, and roughly a 47% chance of rain. That could make the passing game uncomfortable, especially if showers arrive during the first half. Be ready for all the football action with our free NFL picks.
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Indianapolis Colts Are Having a Rough Season
Indianapolis is 2-5, and the Colts have been going backward. They aren’t just losing games. They’re starting to look like a team already thinking about next season. Trading Quenton Nelson and DeForest Buckner for draft picks tells you something about where the organization thinks it’s headed.
The Colts average 22 points and 298 yards per game. That’s 25th in total offense. They do control possession well, holding the ball for more than 32 minutes a game, but that hasn’t translated into enough wins. The defense has been dealing with injuries and personnel changes, and now it has to face a Jacksonville offense averaging almost 26 points. That’s a bad combination.
Indianapolis still has Jonathan Taylor, who has scored eight touchdowns this season, and that gives the Colts a chance to keep games competitive. But losing Nelson hurts the offensive line, while Buckner’s departure takes away an important defensive presence. Anthony Gould and Justin Walley are out, and Andrew Ogletree and Bryce Boettcher are questionable. That’s not a great situation for a team already struggling to win.
Jacksonville Jaguars Have a Chance to Take Control of the Division
Jacksonville is 4-2 and sitting atop the AFC South. The Jaguars have been much more consistent than Indianapolis, and they’re coming off a week where they’ve had time to prepare for a struggling division opponent. This is the kind of game Jacksonville needs to win if it wants to stay in control of the division.
The Jaguars average 25.7 points and nearly 348 yards per game. That’s seventh in scoring and 11th in total offense. They’re also controlling possession for more than 31 minutes a game, which tells me they aren’t relying entirely on big plays. They can move the chains, keep the defense rested and make opponents work for the ball. Against Indianapolis, that’s a good formula.
Jacksonville has been getting more dependable quarterback play and has enough offensive weapons to stretch the Colts’ defense. Jakobi Meyers is questionable with hamstring and ankle problems, while Antonio Johnson is out with an ankle injury. Those absences matter, but the Jaguars still have the stronger roster. Indianapolis is missing too much experience in the trenches, and that’s where I think Jacksonville can take control.
Indianapolis Colts vs Jacksonville Jaguars Picks and Prediction
Jacksonville Jaguars -10.5
I’m taking Jacksonville minus 10.5, although I don’t love the number. Division games can get strange, and Indianapolis still has enough talent to keep things close if Taylor gets going. But the Colts are 2-5, they’ve lost important veterans, and they’re facing a Jaguars team that’s been better on both sides of the ball. Jacksonville has the advantage at home, and I think the Jaguars can build a lead if they get ahead early. Give me Jacksonville by 13 or 14.
Under 46.5 Points
I’ll take Under 46.5. The weather is part of the argument, with gusts above 20 mph and a chance of rain. But the bigger reason is Indianapolis. The Colts haven’t been producing enough offense consistently, and I don’t expect that to improve immediately after losing Nelson. Jacksonville can score, but if the Jaguars get ahead, they have every reason to run the ball and use the clock. The danger is Indianapolis turning the ball over and handing Jacksonville short fields. Still, I can see something around 30-13 Jaguars, and that stays Under.
Final Picks: Jacksonville Jaguars -10.5 and Under 46.5 Points
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