Indianapolis Colts vs Jacksonville Jaguars Picks and Predictions for Sunday December 7 2025
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The AFC South rivalry renews Sunday as the Indianapolis Colts head south to face the Jacksonville Jaguars in a matchup that has quietly become one of the league’s most reliable shootout spots. Each of the last five meetings has gone over the total — and with both defenses dealing with injuries and Jacksonville’s offense rolling, this game once again sets up for points. Below is your full breakdown of odds, line movement, matchup analysis, and our Colts vs Jaguars prediction. For more expert breakdowns, visit our updated NFL picks.
TLDR: Quick Picks and Prediction
- Spread Pick: Jaguars +1.5
- Total Pick: Over 47
- Projected Final Score: Jaguars 31, Colts 27
Odds and Line Movement
Current Odds
| Team | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis | -1.5 | 47 | -126 |
| Jacksonville | +1.5 | +108 |
Line Movement - Spread
| Date | Indianapolis | Jacksonville | Public (%,$) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/03 | -1.5/-112 | 1.5/-108 | JAC 81%, 75% |
| 12/03 | -1.5/-110 | 1.5/-110 | JAC 83%, 81% |
| 12/01 | -1.5/-115 | 1.5/-105 | JAC 83%, 85% |
| 12/01 | -2/-110 | 2/-110 | JAC 94%, 94% |
| 11/30 | -1.5/-110 | 1.5/-110 | JAC 86%, 83% |
| 11/26 | -3/-110 | 3/-110 | JAC 90%, 92% |
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Over | Under | Public (%,$) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/02 | 47/-110 | 47/-108 | — |
| 12/01 | 47/-115 | 47/-105 | — |
| 11/30 | 47/-110 | 47/-110 | — |
| 11/25 | 48/-102 | 48/-120 | — |
Key Matchups and Game Preview
Each of the last five Colts vs Jaguars meetings has gone over the total, and the structure of this week’s matchup points the same way.
Indianapolis enters this game in a “buy-low” spot offensively after facing three elite defenses in a row — Pittsburgh, Kansas City, and Houston — all of which suppressed the Colts’ passing rhythm and limited explosive plays. Jacksonville’s defense, however, presents a weaker test, especially with injuries piling up. Defensive end Travon Walker continues to battle a knee issue, while the Colts' secondary faces its own challenges after cornerback Sauce Gardner was knocked out of last week’s loss to Houston.
Jacksonville’s offense has quietly become one of the hottest units in the league. The Jaguars are averaging 29.2 points across their last five games, ranking No. 7 in EPA per rush attempt and No. 7 in passing success rate during that span. Their aggressive defensive philosophy — boom-or-bust, turnover-driven football — creates short fields and occasional busted coverages, contributing to high-scoring environments.
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We backed the over in last week’s Jaguars vs Titans game, and although Tennessee failed to contribute, Jacksonville still generated multiple scoring chances, including a quick touchdown off a forced fumble on special teams. With the Jags creating 1.7 takeaways per game (No. 3 in the NFL), extra possessions and defensive volatility support another game where both teams find the end zone.
Given the offensive uptick for Jacksonville, the defensive injuries on both sides, and the recent history of this series, this matchup projects toward another high-output affair.
Betting Trends — IND vs JAX
- Head-to-Head: Last five meetings have gone over the total.
- Jacksonville: Averaging 29.2 points over the last five games.
- Indianapolis: Facing its weakest defensive opponent in four weeks.
- Jaguars: Forcing 1.7 turnovers per game (No. 3 in NFL).
Key Injuries and Things To Know — IND vs JAX
- Colts: CB Sauce Gardner questionable after being knocked out of last week’s game.
- Jaguars: DE Travon Walker battling knee issues.
- Both teams’ most significant injury concerns are on defense.
Side and Over/Under Picks
- Side: Jaguars +1.5
- Total: Over 47
Final Score Prediction
Jaguars 31, Colts 27
Jacksonville’s offensive trajectory, turnover creation, and Indianapolis’ recent defensive attrition set up another game where both teams can move the ball with efficiency.
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