Indianapolis Colts vs Pittsburgh Steelers Picks and Predictions for Sunday October 11 2026
The Indianapolis Colts visit the Pittsburgh Steelers at Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, on Sunday, October 11, 2026. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00 PM ET with coverage on CBS. Both teams enter at 2-2, but Indianapolis carries the better immediate momentum after beating Washington 30-13 in London. Pittsburgh comes off a 27-24 loss to Cleveland. The Steelers are currently favored by roughly 2.5 points, with the total around 44.5. Be sure to check out our free NFL picks for more NFL predictions throughout the season.
Indianapolis Returns From London With Momentum
Indianapolis couldn’t have asked for a much better result overseas. The Colts handled Washington 30-13, moving back to .500 and producing their most complete performance of the young season.
Now comes the difficult part. Indianapolis has to return from London and immediately prepare for a physical road matchup in Pittsburgh. The travel situation matters, but the Colts at least enter knowing their offense can generate enough points to win away from home.
The market treating Indianapolis as only a small underdog is appropriate. These teams have identical records, and the Colts’ latest performance was considerably more convincing than Pittsburgh’s.
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Pittsburgh Hasn’t Separated Itself
The Steelers are 2-2 after losing 27-24 to Cleveland. Pittsburgh had an opportunity to steal that game late but couldn’t finish, continuing a start where the Steelers have looked competitive without consistently controlling opponents.
Home field is doing much of the work in this spread. Pittsburgh deserves to be favored at Acrisure Stadium, but laying more than a field goal would be difficult given what we’ve seen through four games.
The Steelers’ path is likely another close, physical game. If they can slow Indianapolis early and take advantage of the Colts’ unusual travel schedule, Pittsburgh has a chance to grind this out. That doesn’t necessarily mean the Steelers cover.
Indianapolis Colts vs Pittsburgh Steelers Picks and Predictions
Pick: Indianapolis Colts +2.5
I’m taking Indianapolis +2.5. The travel back from London isn’t ideal, but the Colts just produced a 30-13 victory and have enough offensive balance to stay with Pittsburgh. The Steelers are 2-2 themselves and just lost to Cleveland. This line is essentially giving Pittsburgh home-field value and little more, and I’d rather take the points in a matchup that projects to remain within one possession throughout.
Pick: Under 44.5
The Under 44.5 is the total pick. Pittsburgh should want to turn this into a slower, more physical game rather than trade possessions with Indianapolis. The Colts are also coming off an international trip, which gives them another reason to lean on a controlled approach. The market has already moved down from an opener around 47 at some books, but I still see enough room for a 23-20 or 21-20 finish.
Final Picks: Indianapolis Colts +2.5 and Under 44.5
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