Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos — Picks & Prediction for Sunday, December 21, 2025
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The Jacksonville Jaguars head to Denver to face the Broncos on Sunday, December 21, 2025, in a marquee AFC matchup at Empower Field at Mile High. Get in on the action with our free NFL picks.
Jacksonville Jaguars Analysis
The Jaguars have leaned heavily on their offense this season, showing explosiveness but also stretches of inconsistency, particularly away from home.
Team Overview and Key Metrics
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Jacksonville is averaging around 23.8 points per game, ranking middle of the pack offensively.
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They pass the ball efficiently, averaging about 245 passing yards per game, but their rushing attack has been inconsistent week to week.
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Defensively, the Jaguars allow roughly 22 points per game, with vulnerability against the run and intermediate passing routes.
Strengths
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Quarterback play: Trevor Lawrence remains the engine of the offense, capable of extending plays and attacking defenses vertically.
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Receiving weapons: Jacksonville’s wide receiver group (Brian Thomas Jr. 601 yards) gives them matchup flexibility, especially against man coverage.
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Red zone efficiency: When drives are sustained, the Jaguars have converted touchdowns at a solid rate.
Weaknesses
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Road inconsistency: Jacksonville has struggled to maintain offensive rhythm away from home.
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Run defense concerns: Opponents have found success controlling tempo against the Jaguars on the ground.
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Turnover volatility: Mistakes under pressure have swung close games against them this season.
Denver Broncos Analysis
Denver has built its identity around defense, physicality, and situational football, especially at home where altitude becomes a factor late in games.
Team Overview and Key Metrics
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The Broncos are averaging around 21.6 points per game, relying on efficiency rather than explosiveness.
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Defensively, Denver allows just under 20 points per game, ranking among the stronger units in the AFC.
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At home, Denver has been particularly effective in limiting big plays and forcing long drives.
Strengths
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Defensive front and pressure: Denver’s pass rush can disrupt timing and force quarterbacks into mistakes.
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Home-field advantage: Altitude and crowd noise often wear down visiting offenses in the second half.
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Ball control offense: Denver prefers to manage games through time of possession and field position.
Weaknesses
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Offensive ceiling: The Broncos can struggle to score quickly if they fall behind.
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Explosive play reliance: When chunk plays are limited, sustained scoring drives can be difficult.
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Passing consistency: Protection breakdowns have led to stalled drives at times.
Standout Players and Key Matchups
Jacksonville
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Trevor Lawrence: His ability to handle pressure and avoid turnovers will dictate Jacksonville’s ceiling.
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Jaguars receivers vs Denver secondary: Winning contested catches will be critical in third-down situations.
Denver
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Broncos pass rush: Disrupting Lawrence early could swing momentum quickly.
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Bo Nix: Has rejuvenated the Denver offense and is in top form.
Prediction Reasoning
This sets up as a tight, physical AFC matchup. Jacksonville has more offensive upside, but Denver’s defense and home-field advantage create a difficult environment for a road team that has been inconsistent away from home.
If Jacksonville jumps out early and protects the football, they can put pressure on Denver to score more than they prefer. However, if Denver keeps the game close into the second half, their defensive discipline and altitude advantage should begin to tilt the game. Check out all the sportsbook promos to see if you are getting a great deal on your bets on the Broncos. Make sure you know about how the fans are looking on prediction markets for the Jaguars with the Kickr promo code. Make sure when you place your bet on Jaguars vs Broncos you are using the BetMGM bonus code.
Final Score Projection: Broncos 24, Jaguars 20
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Best Picks
- Broncos -3
- Under 45.5 total points
