Jacksonville Jaguars vs Baltimore Ravens Picks and Prediction for Thursday November 5 2026
Jacksonville heads to Baltimore on Thursday night for an 8:15 PM ET game against the Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium. The game will be carried on Amazon Prime Video, and what looked like a pretty interesting matchup a few weeks ago has changed quite a bit. Baltimore is dealing with a mess at quarterback, while Jacksonville just finished beating Indianapolis 42-7. The Jaguars are favored by 8.5 points, with the total at 43.5. The forecast calls for temperatures around 66 degrees, winds near 5 mph with gusts around 11, and roughly a 43% chance of rain. It’s an outdoor stadium, but the weather doesn’t look like the biggest problem for either offense. Baltimore’s quarterback situation does. Check out our free NFL picks for more predictions.
Jacksonville Jaguars Are Playing Some Good Football
Jacksonville is 5-2, including 1-1 on the road, and the Jaguars have won four of their last five games. They just hammered Indianapolis 42-7 on Sunday, and that’s the kind of performance you want heading into a short week. Jacksonville has been averaging 28 points per game while allowing just 15.9. That’s a pretty nice combination, especially when you’re facing a team that might not have its starting quarterback.
The defense is what really stands out to me. Jacksonville has been one of the toughest teams in the league to score against, and now it gets a Baltimore offense that’s already been struggling. The Jaguars have been good at making opponents work for their points, and that could be a serious problem for a Ravens team trying to figure out who’s even going to take the snaps Thursday night.
Jacksonville isn’t completely healthy, either. The Jaguars lost defensive tackle DaVon Hamilton and safety Eric Murray to season-ending injuries against Indianapolis. That’s a couple of important pieces missing, and I wouldn’t just brush that aside. Baltimore can still run the football, and Jacksonville needs to be ready for that. But the Jaguars have been playing well enough defensively that I don’t see those injuries completely changing the matchup.
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Baltimore Ravens Have a Quarterback Problem
Baltimore is 4-4, including 1-2 at home, and the Ravens have lost three straight games. That’s bad enough, but now they’ve got an even bigger problem. Lamar Jackson suffered a thumb injury against Buffalo and is headed to injured reserve. Tyler Huntley also left that game with a toe injury, and Joe Fagnano was hurt on a low hit but managed to finish. That’s not exactly how you want to prepare for a Thursday night game.
The Ravens have been averaging 22.4 points per game while allowing 25.4, and those offensive numbers were put together before the quarterback situation got this ugly. Baltimore still has a running game, and I expect the Ravens to lean on it heavily. But Jacksonville knows that, too. If the Jaguars can load up against the run and make Baltimore throw in obvious passing situations, this could get uncomfortable pretty quickly.
Here’s what makes me nervous about laying a big number against Baltimore. The Ravens are still at home, and they’ve got enough physical talent to make a game ugly. If they can run the ball, shorten the game, and avoid turnovers, they might hang around. But that’s a lot of things that have to go right. With the quarterback position in this much trouble, I don’t see Baltimore having many answers if Jacksonville gets ahead early.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs Baltimore Ravens Picks and Prediction
Spread Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars -8.5
I’m laying the 8.5 with Jacksonville. I know that’s a big number for a road team playing on Thursday night, and normally I’d be a little hesitant. But what are we supposed to do with Baltimore’s quarterback situation? Jackson is out, Huntley is hurt, and Fagnano isn’t completely healthy. Meanwhile, Jacksonville is scoring 28 points per game and allowing fewer than 16. The Ravens might be able to run the ball and keep things close for a while, but I don’t trust them to score enough to stay within a touchdown. Give me the Jaguars to win comfortably.
Total Pick: Under 43.5
I’m taking the under 43.5. Jacksonville has been allowing just 15.9 points per game, and Baltimore is heading into this matchup with serious questions at quarterback. That doesn’t sound like a recipe for a big offensive night from the Ravens. The Jaguars could certainly score plenty themselves, especially if Baltimore keeps giving up points the way it has lately. That’s the danger. But I expect Jacksonville to get ahead, lean on its running game, and make Baltimore prove it can move the football. I can see something like a 27-10 finish, which would get us under without much trouble.
Final Picks: Jacksonville Jaguars -8.5 | Under 43.5
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