Jacksonville Jaguars vs Indianapolis Colts Picks & Prediction Sunday, December 28, 2025
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The Jacksonville Jaguars travel to Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis to face the Indianapolis Colts in a pivotal AFC South matchup on Sunday, December 28, 2025, with kickoff set for 1:00 PM ET on FOX. This game will be played indoors, eliminating weather as a factor, with temperatures inside expected to be controlled despite outside conditions hovering in the mid-60s. Jacksonville enters as a -5.5 road favorite, looking to complete the season sweep. For more betting insight across the slate, make sure to check out our free NFL picks.
Jacksonville Keeps Rolling Toward the AFC South Crown
Jacksonville comes into this matchup with an 11-4 record and a strong 5-2 mark on the road, riding a five-game winning streak. Over their last five outings, the Jaguars have been dominant, including a 34-20 road win at Denver, a 48-20 blowout of the Jets, and a convincing 36-19 win over Indianapolis earlier this month. They’ve consistently controlled games with balanced scoring and have shown an ability to pull away late when opponents are forced to chase points.
Statistically, the Jaguars have been one of the most complete teams in the AFC. They average solid production through the air and on the ground, led by 3,489 passing yards from Trevor Lawrence and 999 rushing yards from Travis Etienne Jr. Defensively, Jacksonville has been opportunistic, creating pressure and limiting explosive plays while ranking near the top of the division in points allowed during this stretch.
On the injury front, Jacksonville is managing a few key absences. Bhayshul Tuten is out, while Patrick Mekari and Robert Hainsey are dealing with injuries along the offensive line. Defensively, Jourdan Lewis remains on injured reserve, and Danny Striggow is out, slightly thinning the depth up front but not enough to dramatically shift Jacksonville’s overall outlook.
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Colts Struggling to Stop the Slide at Home
Indianapolis enters at 8-7 overall with a strong 6-2 home record, but recent form has been concerning. The Colts have dropped five straight games, including losses to the 49ers, Seahawks, Texans, and Jaguars. Their most recent defeat, a 48-27 home loss to San Francisco, highlighted ongoing defensive issues and inconsistency on both sides of the ball as the season reaches its critical point.
Offensively, Indianapolis has relied heavily on the run game, led by Jonathan Taylor’s 1,489 rushing yards and 17 touchdowns, while the passing game has produced 3,101 yards this season. Despite those numbers, the Colts have struggled to sustain drives against stronger defenses, particularly when forced into pass-heavy game scripts late.
Injuries remain a major concern for Indianapolis. The Colts are without DeForest Buckner, Anthony Gould, and Drew Ogletree, all on injured reserve, while Dalton Tucker is also out. The absence of Buckner on the defensive line has been especially impactful, weakening their interior defense and making it harder to control games in the trenches.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs Indianapolis Colts Prediction
From an ATS perspective, I’m backing Jacksonville -5.5 in this spot. We’ve already seen this matchup play out earlier in the month, and Jacksonville won that meeting by 17 points. The Jaguars are playing with confidence, have been far more consistent on both sides of the ball, and they’ve proven they can win convincingly on the road. Indianapolis’ recent losses and injury situation make it difficult to trust them to keep this within one score for four quarters. Betting on sports and on the Jaguars is easy, but even easier if you use the best sportsbooks. Make sure you know about how the fans are looking on prediction markets for the Colts with the social sportsbooks. Getting the most out of your bets on Colts vs Jaguars can be done by using the Fanatics Sportsbook promo code.
When it comes to the total, I’m leaning Over 48.5. Jacksonville has been scoring efficiently, while Indianapolis has still shown the ability to put points on the board at home, even in losses. With both teams capable of producing explosive plays and the Colts likely needing to chase the game late, this matchup sets up for enough scoring to push the total past the number.
Final Score Prediction: Jacksonville Jaguars 31, Indianapolis Colts 23
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