Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders Picks and Predictions for Sunday October 4 2026
The Kansas City Chiefs visit the Las Vegas Raiders at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nevada, on Sunday, October 4, 2026. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:25 PM ET with coverage on CBS. Both teams enter at 3-0, making this one of the most intriguing games of the week and an important early AFC West matchup. FanDuel currently has Kansas City as a 4.5-point road favorite, with the Chiefs at -220 on the moneyline, Las Vegas at +184, and the total set at 47.5. Be sure to check out our free NFL picks for more NFL predictions throughout the season.
Chiefs Continue to Set the Standard
Kansas City has opened 3-0 and has already picked up an important AFC West victory. The Chiefs beat Miami 24-10 last week, continuing a strong start built around balanced offensive execution and a defense that has been among the league’s most efficient.
Kansas City’s defense has quietly become one of the team’s biggest strengths. The Chiefs have limited explosive plays and have consistently put opponents behind schedule, allowing the offense to play with patience rather than forcing high-risk throws.
The concern for bettors is the number. Kansas City is laying more than a field goal on the road against another undefeated team, which makes simply backing the Chiefs less automatic than the records might suggest.
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Raiders Have Been One of the League’s Biggest Surprises
Las Vegas is also 3-0 after beating New Orleans 35-27. The Raiders have already produced multiple upset victories and enter this divisional matchup with considerably more confidence than oddsmakers expected before the season.
Their defense has been particularly impressive, ranking near the top of the league in efficiency metrics through three games. That gives Las Vegas a legitimate formula for remaining competitive against Kansas City, especially at home.
The Raiders’ offense has also shown enough balance to take advantage when the defense creates favorable field position. Kansas City is a substantial step up in competition, but Las Vegas has earned enough respect to make 4.5 points meaningful.
Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders Picks and Prediction
Pick: Las Vegas Raiders +4.5
Kansas City is still the stronger team overall, but the value is with Las Vegas getting more than a field goal at home. Both teams are 3-0, and the Raiders’ defense has been one of the best in the league in the early going. Kansas City has also struggled to consistently cover larger numbers despite winning games. This looks more like a one-score divisional battle than a comfortable Chiefs victory, so I’ll take Las Vegas +4.5.
Pick: Under 47.5
Both defenses have been excellent through three weeks, which makes the Under the more appealing total. Kansas City has been among the league leaders in opponent efficiency, while Las Vegas has also ranked near the top in limiting successful plays. AFC West familiarity further supports a lower-scoring setup. A game in the 24-20 or 23-21 range fits the matchup and keeps the total below 47.5.
Final Picks: Las Vegas Raiders +4.5 and Under 47.5
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