Las Vegas Raiders vs New Orleans Saints Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Sunday September 27 2026
The Las Vegas Raiders and New Orleans Saints meet in a matchup between two of the hottest teams against the spread, and this Raiders vs Saints prediction comes down to which streak gives first. Las Vegas is 2-0 straight up and against the spread, covering its first two games by 10.5 and 18.5 points behind the league's most disruptive pass rush. New Orleans has covered eight straight games dating back to Thanksgiving of last year, but the Saints have done it despite some of the slowest starts in football. Raiders head coach Klint Kubiak knows this Saints organization well from his time as its offensive coordinator, and Las Vegas is catching a field goal with star tight end Brock Bowers expected back. Below you will find the odds, line movement, full matchup breakdown, injuries and our complete betting card. For more weekly plays across the league, check out our NFL predictions.
Raiders vs Saints TLDR: Quick Picks and Prediction
- Spread Pick: Raiders +3 (+102)
- Total Pick: Under 43.5 (-110)
- Final Score Prediction: Raiders 23, Saints 17
Odds and Line Movement
Current Odds
| Team | Spread | Total | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Vegas Raiders | +3 (+102) | 43.5 | -110 | -110 |
| New Orleans Saints | -3 (-122) | 43.5 | -110 | -110 |
Line Movement - Spread
| Date | Las Vegas | New Orleans | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/24 | +3 +102 | -3 -122 | NO 82%, NO 61% |
| 09/24 | +3 +100 | -3 -120 | NO 82%, NO 61% |
| 09/23 | +3 +102 | -3 -122 | NO 81%, NO 58% |
| 09/23 | +3.5 -118 | -3.5 -102 | NO 81%, NO 58% |
| 09/23 | +3 +102 | -3 -122 | NO 81%, NO 58% |
| 09/23 | +3.5 -118 | -3.5 -102 | NO 81%, NO 58% |
| 09/23 | +3 +102 | -3 -122 | NO 81%, NO 58% |
| 09/23 | +3.5 -118 | -3.5 -102 | NO 81%, NO 58% |
| 09/22 | +3 +102 | -3 -122 | NO 82%, NO 60% |
| 09/21 | +3 +100 | -3 -120 | NO 69%, NO 63% |
| 09/21 | +3 -102 | -3 -118 | NO 69%, NO 63% |
| 09/21 | +3.5 -118 | -3.5 -102 | NO 69%, NO 63% |
| 09/21 | +3.5 -115 | -3.5 -105 | NO 69%, NO 63% |
| 09/20 | +3.5 -118 | -3.5 -102 | NO 94%, NO 83% |
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Over | Under | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/23 | 43.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | OV 61%, OV 74% |
| 09/23 | 43.5 -115 | 43.5 -105 | OV 61%, OV 74% |
| 09/23 | 44.5 -102 | 44.5 -118 | OV 56%, OV 76% |
| 09/23 | 43.5 -118 | 43.5 -102 | OV 56%, OV 76% |
| 09/23 | 44.5 -102 | 44.5 -118 | OV 55%, OV 76% |
| 09/23 | 43.5 -118 | 43.5 -102 | OV 55%, OV 76% |
| 09/23 | 44.5 -102 | 44.5 -118 | OV 55%, OV 76% |
| 09/22 | 43.5 -118 | 43.5 -102 | OV 55%, OV 76% |
| 09/22 | 43.5 -122 | 43.5 +102 | OV 55%, OV 76% |
| 09/22 | 44.5 -102 | 44.5 -118 | OV 55%, OV 75% |
| 09/21 | 43.5 -112 | 43.5 -108 | OV 50%, OV 83% |
| 09/21 | 43.5 -108 | 43.5 -112 | OV 50%, OV 80% |
The spread has been a battle over the key number. New Orleans started the week at -3.5 with 94 percent of the early money, but the line came down to -3 and has flipped between 3 and 3.5 several times since. It currently sits at Saints -3 (-122), with Las Vegas +3 available at plus money. New Orleans has drawn between 69 and 94 percent of the money throughout, yet the book has been unable to hold 3.5. When a favorite takes that much support and still cannot stay above the field goal, it signals respect for the underdog at +3.5, and it leaves Raiders bettors with a plus-money price on the key number.
The total has bounced between 43.5 and 44.5 all week, with a larger share of tickets on the Over than money. The Over has drawn between 74 and 83 percent of the tickets but only 50 to 61 percent of the money, a sign that the bigger bets have been more balanced. Every time the number reached 44.5, the Under was priced as the favorite at -118. It currently sits at 43.5 at even juice on both sides.
Key Matchups and Game Preview: Raiders at Saints
Las Vegas and New Orleans Know Each Other Well
Each side has experienced plenty of turnover recently, but the Saints and Raiders actually know each other quite well, as this will be their fourth meeting since 2020. The Raiders earned a 25-10 win in New Orleans in December 2024 in a game where the starting quarterbacks were Aidan O'Connell and Spencer Rattler. Both rosters look different now, but the recent history gives the Raiders a measure of confidence in this matchup.
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Klint Kubiak Returns to Face the Saints
Now-Raiders head coach Klint Kubiak was the Saints' offensive coordinator in that December 2024 game, so he knows where to get the best beignets and jambalaya. More importantly, he knows the people and tendencies inside the New Orleans building. That familiarity could help Las Vegas prepare for a Saints team that has been adjusting well in-game but struggling early.
Raiders Unbeaten Against the Spread
Las Vegas is 2-0 straight up and against the spread, covering the number in its first two games by 10.5 and 18.5 points. That is not a team squeaking by the number, but one that has dominated market expectations. The Raiders would love to build a 3-0 start to give themselves some cushion in the standings before the schedule toughens, with games against the Chiefs, Bills and Rams on the horizon.
New Orleans Keeps Covering Despite Slow Starts
The Saints have not lost at the betting window since Thanksgiving of last year, covering in each of their last eight games. That number is shocking when you consider how the Saints have been starting games. New Orleans trailed Detroit 21-0 in the opener and did not score its first touchdown against Baltimore until the 9:42 mark of the fourth quarter in Week 2. The Saints deserve credit for their halftime changes and in-game adjustments, but at some point, those slow starts are going to catch up with them.
Saints First Quarter Struggles
Per NFL betting analyst Evan Abrams, the Saints are 0-16-3 on the first-quarter moneyline and 2-17 against the first-quarter spread since the beginning of last season. That is one of the most extreme early-game trends in the league. Falling behind early against a Raiders team that can generate pressure at will is a dangerous combination for New Orleans.
The Raiders Pass Rush vs a Shuffled Saints Line
Through the first two games, the Raiders' defense has pressured opposing quarterbacks on 50.0 percent of drop-backs, the highest rate in the NFL. That pass rush now faces a New Orleans offensive line that must shuffle after left tackle Kelvin Banks suffered a high-ankle sprain and is expected to miss time. We saw how that went for the Chargers last week, as Maxx Crosby caused havoc in the backfield. A reshuffled line against the league's most aggressive pass rush is a major mismatch.
Brock Bowers Set to Boost Las Vegas
The Raiders are unbeaten, and they have done it without star tight end Brock Bowers. Kubiak said Bowers was very close to playing last week against the Chargers, and it appears he is on track to play this week. Adding one of the most dangerous tight ends in the league to an offense that has already been productive gives Las Vegas another weapon and makes it even harder for New Orleans to keep pace.
Betting Trends: LV vs NO
- Las Vegas is 2-0 straight up and against the spread, covering by 10.5 and 18.5 points.
- New Orleans has covered the spread in each of its last eight games.
- New Orleans is 0-16-3 on the first-quarter moneyline since the beginning of last season.
- New Orleans is 2-17 against the first-quarter spread since the beginning of last season.
- Las Vegas won the last meeting 25-10 in New Orleans in December 2024.
- Las Vegas leads the NFL with a 50.0 percent pressure rate.
- The spread has moved between New Orleans -3.5 and -3, with the Saints drawing between 69 and 94 percent of the money.
- The total has bounced between 43.5 and 44.5 all week.
Saints Eight-Game Cover Streak
New Orleans' eight-game cover streak is impressive, but it has been built on second-half rallies after very slow starts. That formula is risky against a Raiders team with the league's best pressure rate, which can make comebacks much harder. Streaks eventually end, and this matchup has the ingredients to snap it.
New Orleans Spread Stuck on the Key Number
The Saints have drawn the vast majority of the money all week, yet the line has not been able to stay at 3.5. The book has instead moved to 3 and raised the juice on New Orleans to -122. That leaves Raiders +3 at plus money, which is a strong price on the most important number in football.
Key Injuries and Things To Know: LV vs NO
Raiders Injury Report
- Brock Bowers: Was very close to playing last week and appears on track to play this week.
Bowers' expected return is a major boost for an offense that has already been productive without him. Confirm his status before kickoff, as his availability adds significant value to the Las Vegas side.
Saints Injury Report
- Kelvin Banks: Expected to miss time with a high-ankle sprain, forcing New Orleans to shuffle its offensive line.
Banks' absence at left tackle is the most important injury in this matchup. Against a Raiders defense that leads the league in pressure rate, a reshuffled offensive line could lead to sacks, turnovers and stalled drives.
Raiders vs Saints Side and Over/Under Picks
Why the Raiders Cover +3
Las Vegas has covered both games by double digits, leads the league in pressure rate and gets Bowers back. New Orleans is dealing with a key offensive line injury and has been one of the worst first-quarter teams in the league since the start of last season. Kubiak's familiarity with the Saints adds another edge. The Saints' second-half adjustments have been impressive, but the slow starts will eventually catch up to them, and we believe that happens here. At +3 with plus money, the Raiders are the side.
- Spread Pick: Raiders +3 (+102)
Why Las Vegas and New Orleans Stay Under 43.5
New Orleans' offense has struggled to generate early points, trailing Detroit 21-0 and failing to score a touchdown against Baltimore until the fourth quarter. Now that offense faces the league's most disruptive pass rush with a reshuffled offensive line. The Under was priced as the favorite every time the total reached 44.5, and the larger bets have been more balanced than the Over-heavy ticket count suggests. We expect the Raiders' pressure to limit the Saints and keep the combined score below the number.
- Total Pick: Under 43.5 (-110)
Las Vegas vs New Orleans Final Score Prediction
Expect another slow start for New Orleans as the Raiders' pass rush attacks a shuffled offensive line. Las Vegas builds an early lead with Bowers giving the offense an added target. The Saints make their usual second-half adjustments to get back into the game, but the early deficit proves too much. The Raiders move to 3-0, cover the spread and keep the game under the total.
- Final Score Prediction: Raiders 23, Saints 17
- Spread Pick: Raiders +3 (+102)
- Total Pick: Under 43.5 (-110)
How to Wager On Raiders vs Saints
The spread has flipped between 3 and 3.5 all week, so line shopping is critical. If you can find Raiders +3.5 at any sportsbook, even at heavier juice like -118, that is the best number available, since it protects against a three-point Saints win. At +3, the current plus-money price is still strong. Bettors confident in our projection can also consider the Raiders moneyline. Another angle worth considering is the Raiders in the first quarter or first half, given New Orleans' 0-16-3 first-quarter moneyline record since the start of last season.
On the total, Under 43.5 at -110 is playable, but if the number climbs back to 44.5, that is an even better entry point. Avoid the Under if the total drops to 42.5. Confirm Bowers' status before kickoff, as his return could slightly increase the Raiders' scoring potential. Because both picks point toward Las Vegas controlling a New Orleans offense that struggles early, pairing Raiders +3 with Under 43.5 fits the projected game script if your sportsbook offers fair correlated pricing. Stick to consistent unit sizing and manage your bankroll carefully.
For more data-driven tools to help you bet Raiders vs Saints and the rest of the NFL slate, explore our guide to AI picks. You can also compare platforms through our Dimers review and our Oddible review to find the tools that best fit your betting approach.
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