Los Angeles Chargers vs Dallas Cowboys Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Sunday December 21 2025
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Los Angeles Chargers vs Dallas Cowboys picks headline this Week 16 matchup, and I am breaking it all down with my favorite betting angles while also pointing readers toward the latest free NFL picks available right now. Dallas hosts Los Angeles in a game where recent history, coaching tendencies, and current form all point strongly toward a lower-scoring outcome.
TLDR: Quick Picks and Prediction
- Spread Pick: Chargers +2.5
- Total Pick: Under 49
- Projected Final Score: Cowboys 21, Chargers 20
Odds and Line Movement
| Team | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Chargers | +2.5 | 49 |
| Cowboys | -2.5 | 49 |
Line Movement - Spread
| Date | Time | Chargers | Cowboys |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/16 | 09:00 AM | +2.5 (-112) | -2.5 (-108) |
| 12/15 | 07:01 AM | +1.5 (-115) | -1.5 (-105) |
| 12/14 | 07:41 PM | +2.5 (-110) | -2.5 (-110) |
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Time | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/15 | 07:01 AM | 49.5 (-115) | 49.5 (-105) |
| 12/14 | 06:33 PM | 49 (-110) | 49 (-110) |
| 12/09 | 01:43 PM | 48.5 (-115) | 48.5 (-105) |
Chargers vs Cowboys Game Preview
Dallas has won and covered each of the last two meetings by identical 20-17 scores, including the October 2023 matchup. Those games stayed under the total by wide margins, and that same script sets up well again here. The Cowboys have tried to push tempo and turn games into shootouts this season, but this matchup pits them against Jim Harbaugh, one of the best coaches in football at slowing games down and controlling pace.
Four of the Chargers' last five games have stayed under the total, with those contests averaging just 38.2 points per game. You have to go all the way back to Week 7 against Indianapolis to find the last time Los Angeles played in a game that cleared 50 points. Since then, only the Jaguars have managed to score more than 20 points against this Chargers defense.
The Chargers continue to win games despite an offensive line that has been among the worst in the league. Justin Herbert has been sacked 11 times over the last two games, forcing the offense into a quick-release, short-passing approach. That style limits explosive plays and chews clock.
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Dallas has struggled defensively this season, but the Cowboys have just faced Philadelphia, Kansas City, Detroit, and Minnesota in succession. All four opponents feature elite downfield threats. That element is largely absent from the Chargers' offense right now, making it much easier for Dallas to keep plays in front and avoid quick strikes.
Betting Trends (LAC vs DAL)
- Four of the Chargers' last five games have gone under the total
- The under has cashed in each of the last two Chargers vs Cowboys meetings
- Dallas games against non-elite passing offenses have trended under this season
Key Injuries and Things To Know (LAC vs DAL)
- Chargers offensive line has allowed 11 sacks over the last two games
- Dallas defense has faced a string of elite passing offenses in recent weeks
Side and Over and Under Picks
- Chargers +2.5
- Under 49
Final Score Prediction
Cowboys 21, Chargers 20
How to Wager On Chargers vs Cowboys
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