Los Angeles Chargers vs Kansas City Chiefs Picks and Predictions for Sunday October 18 2026
The Los Angeles Chargers head to Kansas City on Sunday, October 18, 2026, to play the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium. Kickoff is at 4:25 PM ET on CBS. The Chargers just lost another one, falling 23-17 to Denver. Kansas City had last weekend off after beating Las Vegas 30-27. The Chiefs are favored by eight points, with the total sitting at 43.5. Weather looks decent, with temperatures around 69 degrees, winds near 12 mph, and little rain expected. I’m not usually crazy about giving eight points in a division game. But have you watched the Chargers lately? Herbert keeps throwing picks, the offensive line is a mess, and now they’re heading into Arrowhead against a rested Mahomes. Good luck with that. I know Kansas City has some problems of its own, but I don’t see the Chargers fixing everything by Sunday. Make sure you check out all of our free NFL picks.
Los Angeles Chargers Keep Finding Ways To Lose
The Chargers are 0-5 and have lost both road games. They’ve been close in a few, which probably makes it even more frustrating. Last Sunday, Los Angeles actually led Denver 17-13 in the fourth quarter. Then Herbert threw an interception, the Chargers lost a fumble, and the Broncos walked away with a 23-17 win. Sound familiar? Los Angeles lost 30-23 to Seattle the week before and 24-16 to Buffalo before that. Jim Harbaugh has to be getting tired of watching this happen. The Chargers will play decent football for a while, then give the other team a couple of chances to take over. You can’t keep doing that in the NFL. Not against Kansas City, anyway. The Chiefs have been taking advantage of mistakes for years.
Los Angeles is scoring 16.8 points per game and allowing 25.8. That’s a pretty ugly gap. The Chargers are averaging 292.8 yards of offense, and they’ve rushed for 641 yards through five games. You’d think the offense would be doing a little better with those rushing numbers. Nope. They’ve scored 84 points all season. Kansas City has 118 in four games. The Chargers have also been giving the football away, sitting at minus-five in turnover differential. Their defense has 11 sacks and four interceptions, so there are some things to like there. But what’s the point of getting a stop when your offense keeps handing the ball back? Mahomes doesn’t need any extra help. Los Angeles has to figure out how to finish drives and quit making mistakes. I’m not sure that’s happening this week.
Herbert has thrown for 937 yards, five touchdowns and seven interceptions. Seven picks already. That’s not good, especially when you’re paying your quarterback to win games. He managed only 121 passing yards against Denver and threw another interception when the Chargers needed him most. Omarion Hampton has rushed for 271 yards and three touchdowns, averaging 3.7 per carry. Tre’ Harris leads the receivers with 225 yards on 15 catches. The injuries aren’t helping. Ladd McConkey has a foot problem, Quentin Johnston has been dealing with a chest injury, and Brenen Thompson has a quadriceps issue. Both starting tackles are a concern, too. Joe Alt has been out with a neck injury, and Rashawn Slater is on injured reserve. Trevor Penning has also been dealing with a concussion. That’s a lot of missing protection. Derwin James Jr. has a hamstring issue on defense as well. Herbert can still throw the football. I’m just not trusting him to do much behind that line right now.
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Kansas City Chiefs Are Making It Look Pretty Easy
Kansas City is 4-0 and has won both home games. The Chiefs haven’t played since October 4, when they beat Las Vegas 30-27. That wasn’t an easy win, either. The Raiders hung around, and Kansas City needed a couple of big plays to finish the job. Kenneth Walker III took off for a 76-yard touchdown and finished with 177 rushing yards and two scores. Mahomes threw two touchdowns. Another win. The Chiefs also beat Indianapolis 33-30 and Miami 24-10 earlier this season. Andy Reid probably liked having last weekend off. His team is undefeated, his quarterback is playing well, and now he gets a winless division rival coming to town. I don’t think Kansas City is overlooking anybody, but this is a game the Chiefs should win.
The Chiefs average 29.5 points and 412 yards per game. That’s a lot better than what the Chargers have been doing. Kansas City has rushed for 649 yards in four games, averaging 162.3. Walker has been a big reason for that. He’s getting more than six yards a carry, which is ridiculous when you think about it. The defense is allowing 19.3 points per game. I like that number. Kansas City has only four sacks, though, and that’s not much. Maybe Herbert gets some time to throw if the Chiefs can’t put pressure on him. But the Chargers have been struggling to protect him against everybody. Kansas City is also plus-five in turnovers, while Los Angeles is minus-five. That’s a big difference. The Chiefs haven’t needed to be perfect because they’re doing the important things better. Score points. Run the ball. Don’t give it away.
Mahomes has thrown for 1,037 yards, nine touchdowns and two interceptions. That’s a pretty good start. Walker leads the running game with 537 yards and four touchdowns on 87 carries. He’s averaging 6.2 yards per attempt. I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets another 20 carries Sunday. Travis Kelce has 16 catches for 246 yards and two touchdowns, while Tyquan Thornton has 219 yards and two scores. Thornton has been dealing with a leg injury, and Rashee Rice has also had some injury concerns. Left tackle Josh Simmons has been bothered by his back, although Kahlil Benson has been filling in. Nick Bolton leads the defense with 37 tackles. Kansas City isn’t completely healthy. Nobody is at this point. But Mahomes has his running game, Kelce is still making catches, and Walker has been running all over people. Compare that with what’s happening around Herbert. It’s not particularly close.
Los Angeles Chargers vs Kansas City Chiefs Picks and Predictions
Against the Spread Pick: Kansas City Chiefs -8
I’m taking Kansas City laying eight points. I know. That’s a lot for a division game. But the Chargers are 0-5, Herbert has seven interceptions, and both his starting tackles are hurt. Now he’s going into Arrowhead against a Chiefs team that’s had a week to rest. You really want to trust Los Angeles in that spot? I don’t. Kansas City is scoring 29.5 points a game, and Walker is averaging 6.2 yards every time he gets the ball. The Chargers are allowing 25.8 points and haven’t scored more than 23 in their last three games. The one thing that bothers me is Kansas City’s pass rush. Four sacks in four games isn’t much, and Herbert could make some plays if he gets comfortable. But with that offensive line? I’m not counting on it. Mahomes doesn’t have to throw for 350 yards here. Walker can handle plenty of the work, and the Chiefs should get some good field position if the Chargers keep turning it over. I think Kansas City gets ahead and makes Los Angeles chase the game. That’s where Herbert has been getting into trouble. Give me Chiefs -8.
Total Pick: Under 43.5 Points
I’ll take Under 43.5. Kansas City could score 30 by itself. That’s the scary part. The Chiefs have been putting up points, and Walker could have another big game against this Chargers defense. But Los Angeles is averaging only 16.8 points. Herbert has thrown seven picks, his offensive line is beat up, and now he’s facing a Kansas City defense allowing 19.3 points per game. How many points are the Chargers really going to score here? I’m thinking somewhere around 10 to 14. Maybe Herbert surprises me and finally gets the passing game going. Kansas City hasn’t been getting many sacks, so there’s a chance. But I’m not betting on a sudden turnaround after five straight losses. I also expect Reid to run the football if the Chiefs get ahead. Why wouldn’t he? Walker is getting 6.2 yards a carry. Give him the ball and let the clock move. The Chiefs don’t need to win 38-24. Something like 27-13 makes more sense to me. I’ll take Under 43.5 points.
Final Picks: Kansas City Chiefs -8 and Under 43.5 Points.
Disclaimer: This preview was prepared October 14, 2026. Betting lines, injuries, weather forecasts and player availability may change before kickoff. Check the latest information before placing a wager.
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