Miami Dolphins vs Las Vegas Raiders Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Sunday September 13 2026
The Las Vegas Raiders open the season as short home favorites against the Miami Dolphins, and the number on the board raises a fair question worth checking against today's NFL picks: should Las Vegas be laying more than a field goal against anyone? With two first-time head coaches making their debuts and a run-heavy Miami attack facing a Raiders backfield in flux, this opener carries more intrigue than the modest spread suggests.
TLDR: Quick Picks and Prediction
- Side: Miami +3.5 (-105)
- Total: Under 40.5 (-105)
- Projected Final Score: Raiders 20, Dolphins 17
Odds and Line Movement
Below is the current market snapshot for Miami at Las Vegas, followed by line movement tables tracking the spread and total along with public betting splits leading up to kickoff.
Current Odds
| Team | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Miami | +3 (-108) | 40.5 |
| Las Vegas | -3 (-112) |
Line Movement - Spread
| Date | Miami | Las Vegas | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/09 | 3-108 | -3-112 | LV 63%, LV 64% |
| 09/09 | 3½-115 | -3½-105 | LV 63%, LV 64% |
| 09/09 | 3½-112 | -3½-108 | LV 64%, LV 64% |
| 09/07 | 3½-115 | -3½-105 | LV 63%, LV 66% |
| 07/20 | 3½-110 | -3½-110 | |
| 07/14 | 3-102 | -3-118 | |
| 07/09 | 3+100 | -3-120 |
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Over | Under | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/11 | 40½-105 | 40½-115 | UN 82%, UN 61% |
| 09/09 | 40½-112 | 40½-108 | UN 86%, UN 57% |
| 09/09 | 41½-102 | 41½-118 | UN 86%, UN 57% |
| 09/09 | 41½-105 | 41½-115 | UN 86%, UN 57% |
| 09/08 | 40½-115 | 40½-105 | UN 76%, UN 55% |
| 09/08 | 41½-102 | 41½-118 | UN 74%, UN 53% |
| 09/08 | 41½-105 | 41½-115 | UN 74%, UN 53% |
| 09/07 | 41½-102 | 41½-118 | UN 62%, OV 50% |
| 09/07 | 40½-112 | 40½-108 | UN 62%, OV 50% |
| 09/07 | 40½-115 | 40½-105 | UN 62%, OV 50% |
Dolphins vs Raiders Key Matchups and Game Preview
This opener features two first-time head coaches, with Klint Kubiak taking over in Las Vegas and Jeff Hafley making his debut in Miami. Both coaches have already made notable decisions heading into Week 1, and both offenses will lean heavily on the ground game to control this low-scoring matchup.
Raiders' Quarterback and Backfield Questions
Kubiak put any questions about the quarterback position to bed, electing to hand the reins to veteran Kirk Cousins over No. 1 overall draft pick Fernando Mendoza. That conversation ended quickly, but Kubiak may have another decision to manage, as Ashton Jeanty hasn't seen the practice field since injuring his ankle on August 23. Rookie Mike Washington Jr. is capturing attention in a hurry after running for 168 yards across three preseason games, giving Kubiak a reliable second option if Jeanty isn't fully healthy.
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Dolphins' Rushing Attack
Miami enters the year with a notable void in talent, and there's a reason the Dolphins are projected to be the worst team in the league this season. Still, De'Von Achane ran for 1,350 yards on 5.7 yards per carry last season, and new quarterback Malik Willis gives Miami a double-headed rushing attack. Willis performed very well in a reserve role with the Packers over the last two seasons, generating 6.2 yards per rushing attempt on 42 carries with three rushing touchdowns, and Hafley clearly saw enough to trust him with the starting job in his head coaching debut.
Low Total Reflects Ground-Heavy Approach
With a depressed total in the low-40s, points are likely going to be hard to come by in this matchup. Miami's lack of playmaking weapons will be a serious issue as the season goes on, but in this specific contest against the Raiders, the Dolphins' rushing attack should keep the chains moving and the clock ticking.
Betting Trends: MIA vs LV
Dolphins Trends
Miami has been priced anywhere from a field goal underdog to as many as 3.5 points across the betting window, reflecting some uncertainty in the market about Hafley's debut. Public betting has leaned toward Las Vegas on the spread, with support ranging from 63% to 66% throughout the line movement window.
Raiders Trends
Las Vegas has been favored throughout the pregame window but has never opened as more than a field-goal favorite, underscoring the question of whether the Raiders should be laying more than three points against anyone right now. The total has drawn heavy public support on the under, reaching as high as 86% at points.
Key Injuries and Things To Know: MIA vs LV
Raiders Injury Report
Ashton Jeanty hasn't seen the practice field since injuring his ankle on August 23, creating uncertainty in the Las Vegas backfield heading into the opener. Rookie Mike Washington Jr. is well-positioned to handle a larger workload if Jeanty is not fully healthy for this one.
Dolphins Injury Report
No significant injury concerns are noted for Miami heading into this matchup. The Dolphins enter with their game plan built around Achane and Willis controlling the ground game against a Las Vegas defense adjusting to a new coaching staff.
Dolphins vs Raiders Side and Over/Under Picks
Miami Side Pick
- Pick: Dolphins +3.5 (-105)
- Reasoning: With Jeanty's health in question for Las Vegas and Miami's rushing attack led by Achane and Willis capable of controlling the clock, the Raiders should not be laying more than a field goal in this spot.
Raiders Total Pick
- Pick: Under 40.5 (-105)
- Reasoning: With a depressed total in the low-40s and both offenses leaning on the ground game, points are likely to be hard to come by in this matchup.
Final Score Prediction
- Miami: 17
- Las Vegas: 20
A ground-and-clock approach from both teams keeps this game close and low-scoring, with the Raiders narrowly escaping their coaching debut against a determined Miami rushing attack.
How to Wager On Dolphins vs Raiders
Bettors looking to build out this Dolphins vs Raiders matchup have several tools available beyond the standard sportsbook line. For those comparing model-driven projections against the market on this opening-week matchup, checking AI picks can help confirm a side or total before placing a wager. Readers who want a deeper look at data-driven modeling for a game featuring two first-time head coaches can also review the Dimers review or the Oddible review for additional context on how each platform grades this game. Combining that research with the line movement and public betting data above gives bettors a fuller picture before backing the spread or total in this Week 1 matchup.
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