Miami Dolphins vs Minnesota Vikings Picks and Predictions for Sunday October 4 2026
The Miami Dolphins visit the Minnesota Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, Minnesota, on Sunday, October 4, 2026. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:05 PM ET. Miami enters at 0-3 after losing 24-10 to Kansas City, while Minnesota is a perfect 3-0 following a 23-16 road win over Tampa Bay. FanDuel has the Vikings as 10.5-point home favorites, with Minnesota at -670 on the moneyline, Miami at +490, and the total set at 39.5. Be sure to check out our free NFL picks for more NFL predictions throughout the season.
Dolphins Face Another Difficult Matchup
Miami’s season has started about as poorly as possible. The Dolphins are 0-3 and have lost every game by double digits, with last week’s 24-10 defeat to Kansas City reinforcing the gap between Miami and the AFC’s stronger teams.
The offense now faces an even more difficult situation after losing its most dangerous offensive weapon for the season. Miami has struggled to sustain drives and create explosive plays, and now has to travel indoors against a Minnesota defense that has been doing much of the heavy lifting during the Vikings’ perfect start.
Miami’s defense hasn’t been able to compensate. The Dolphins enter this matchup without a sack through three games, a major concern against a Minnesota offense that doesn’t need much help creating favorable situations.
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Vikings Leaning on Defense During 3-0 Start
Minnesota hasn’t necessarily been dominant offensively, but the Vikings keep winning. They improved to 3-0 by beating Tampa Bay 23-16, and their defense has consistently given them a chance to control games.
The Vikings have generated one of the league’s strongest pass rushes and now face an opponent that has struggled to protect its offense. That matchup could determine the game more than Minnesota’s offensive production.
The important point for bettors is that Minnesota doesn’t need to play a perfect game to control this matchup. Miami’s offense has shown little ability to punish mistakes, which creates a strong opportunity for the Vikings to build a two-score lead and force the Dolphins into obvious passing situations.
Miami Dolphins vs Minnesota Vikings Picks and Prediction
Pick: Minnesota Vikings -10.5
Laying double digits is never comfortable, but the matchup justifies it. Minnesota is 3-0 while Miami is 0-3 and has lost every game by at least 10 points. The Dolphins have also lost their best offensive weapon and have yet to record a sack this season. Minnesota’s defense should create repeated short-field opportunities and prevent Miami from sustaining enough drives to keep this close. The Vikings are the side even at -10.5.
Pick: Under 39.5
This is a low total, but Miami’s offensive limitations make the Under appealing. The Dolphins managed only 10 points against Kansas City and now face one of the league’s more disruptive defenses. Minnesota doesn’t need to chase points if it builds an early lead, and the Vikings’ offense has been good enough without needing to turn games into shootouts. A score around 27-10 or 24-13 would cover the Minnesota spread while staying below 39.5.
Final Picks: Minnesota Vikings -10.5 and Under 39.5
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