Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Sunday September 20 2026
Minnesota is 8-2 straight-up and 6-3-1 against the spread in the last ten meetings between these NFC North foes, but recent form is pointing in a different direction for anyone weighing Vikings vs Bears picks this week. Chicago's offense looked like a wrecking ball in Week 1, while Minnesota's quarterback situation remains very much in question heading into Monday night. For more matchups this week, check out our full slate of NFL picks before placing a wager.
TLDR: Quick Picks and Prediction
- Spread Pick: Chicago Bears -4.5
- Total Pick: Under 48.5
- Projected Final Score: Bears 27, Vikings 20
Odds and Line Movement
Current Odds
| Market | Line | Public Betting ($, #) |
|---|---|---|
| Spread (Minnesota / Chicago) | MIN +4.5 (-112) / CHI -4.5 (-108) | CHI 69%, CHI 65% |
| Total (Over / Under) | Over 48.5 (-110) / Under 48.5 (-110) | OV 93%, OV 80% |
Line Movement - Spread
| Date | Minnesota | Chicago | Public Betting ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/16 | +4.5 (-112) | -4.5 (-108) | CHI 69%, CHI 65% |
| 09/16 | +4.5 (-108) | -4.5 (-112) | CHI 69%, CHI 65% |
| 09/16 | +5.5 (-115) | -5.5 (-105) | CHI 69%, CHI 66% |
| 09/15 | +5.5 (-108) | -5.5 (-112) | CHI 74%, CHI 71% |
| 09/14 | +5.5 (-110) | -5.5 (-110) | CHI 69%, CHI 57% |
| 09/14 | +5.5 (-112) | -5.5 (-108) | CHI 69%, CHI 57% |
| 09/13 | +5.5 (-110) | -5.5 (-110) | MIN 95%, MIN 83% |
| 09/13 | +6 (-110) | -6 (-110) | MIN 95%, MIN 83% |
| 09/13 | +6.5 (-105) | -6.5 (-115) | MIN 95%, MIN 83% |
| 09/08 | +3 (-110) | -3 (-110) | MIN 92%, MIN 80% |
| 09/02 | +3.5 (-115) | -3.5 (-105) | MIN 90%, MIN 75% |
| 08/30 | +3.5 (-110) | -3.5 (-110) | MIN 81%, MIN 50% |
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Over | Under | Public Betting ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/17 | 48.5 (-110) | 48.5 (-110) | OV 93%, OV 80% |
| 09/17 | 47.5 (-115) | 47.5 (-105) | OV 96%, OV 81% |
| 09/16 | 48.5 (-110) | 48.5 (-110) | OV 100%, OV 86% |
| 09/16 | 47.5 (-115) | 47.5 (-105) | OV 100%, OV 86% |
| 09/16 | 48.5 (-110) | 48.5 (-110) | OV 100%, OV 86% |
| 09/16 | 47.5 (-115) | 47.5 (-105) | OV 100%, OV 86% |
| 09/16 | 48.5 (-110) | 48.5 (-110) | OV 100%, OV 85% |
| 09/15 | 47.5 (-115) | 47.5 (-105) | OV 100%, OV 85% |
| 09/15 | 48.5 (-112) | 48.5 (-108) | OV 100%, OV 85% |
| 09/15 | 48.5 (-118) | 48.5 (-102) | OV 100%, OV 85% |
| 09/15 | 48.5 (-115) | 48.5 (-105) | OV 100%, OV 83% |
| 09/15 | 48.5 (-112) | 48.5 (-108) | OV 100%, OV 83% |
| 09/15 | 48.5 (-118) | 48.5 (-102) | OV 100%, OV 81% |
| 09/15 | 48.5 (-110) | 48.5 (-110) | OV 100%, OV 81% |
| 09/15 | 48.5 (-112) | 48.5 (-108) | OV 100%, OV 81% |
| 09/15 | 48.5 (-110) | 48.5 (-110) | OV 100%, OV 83% |
| 09/15 | 48.5 (-110) | 48.5 (-105) | OV 100%, OV 83% |
| 09/15 | 48.5 (-115) | 48.5 (-105) | OV 100%, OV 83% |
| 09/15 | 48.5 (-115) | 48.5 (+100) | OV 100%, OV 83% |
Vikings vs Bears Key Matchups and Game Preview
Bears Explode for 59 in Week 1
He warned us. While every other coach in the league is looking to lift the Lombardi Trophy, Bears head coach Ben Johnson told the media in the offseason that he wants to lead a record-breaking offense and see where the chips fall after that. So far, so good. Chicago generated 552 yards and scored 59 points in a Week 1 demolition of the Panthers. That was a tie game midway through the third quarter, but Carolina simply could not keep up with the lightning-fast pace that Caleb Williams and company were setting.
Chicago's Offense Chasing History
Coach Johnson is trying to kick the Bears' offense into a different gear this season, and the Week 1 explosion suggests that plan is already working. That kind of pace and production is exactly what Johnson promised when he took the job, and it puts pressure on every defense Chicago faces going forward.
MIN Faces Quarterback Uncertainty
The Kyler Murray era in Minneapolis got off to a disastrous start, but the Vikings rallied for an impressive division win over Green Bay in Week 1. Murray's first pass as a member of the Purple People Eaters was intercepted and he suffered a concussion shortly after, taking a very scary hit that seemed to affect his neck more than his head. He reportedly participated in team meetings on Monday and will attempt to clear concussion protocol for this game, so his status is worth monitoring throughout the week.
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Vikings Rally Past Packers
Carson Wentz and the Vikings' defense led a very impressive comeback effort in Week 1 after Murray went down. At the start of the week, the operating assumption is that Wentz gets the nod for Minnesota in this game, and if that is the case, the only direction to look is toward the under.
Vikings Defense Has Given Bears Trouble
Five of the last seven meetings between the Vikings and Bears have stayed under the total, and this opening total of 49.5 on Monday night is by far the highest number seen between these teams since the Covid seasons of 2020-21. Chicago only scored 24 and 19 points against Brian Flores' defense last year, and if there is any defensive coordinator who can give this offense fits, Flores is probably the guy. Just ask Jordan Love.
Betting Trends: MIN vs CHI
- Minnesota is 8-2 straight-up and 6-3-1 against the spread in the last ten meetings in this series.
- The Vikings and Bears split their two meetings last year, with each team winning on the other's home turf.
- Chicago scored 59 points and generated 552 yards in a Week 1 win over Carolina.
- Minnesota rallied to beat Green Bay in Week 1 despite Kyler Murray's early exit due to a concussion.
- Five of the last seven meetings between these teams have gone under the total.
- The opening total of 49.5 is the highest number seen in this series since the Covid seasons of 2020-21.
- Chicago scored only 24 and 19 points against Brian Flores' defense in last year's meetings.
Key Injuries and Things To Know: MIN and CHI
- Kyler Murray suffered a concussion in Week 1 after a scary hit and is working to clear protocol for this game.
- Carson Wentz is the presumed starter for Minnesota if Murray is unable to play.
- Caleb Williams and Chicago's offense produced 552 yards and 59 points in their Week 1 win.
- Brian Flores' defense held Chicago to 24 and 19 points in last year's two meetings.
- Minnesota's defense played a key role in the team's comeback win over Green Bay in Week 1.
Vikings vs Bears Side and Over/Under Picks
- Spread: Chicago Bears -4.5
- Total: Under 48.5
Chicago's offense looked historically dangerous in Week 1, and with Minnesota likely turning to Carson Wentz under center, the Bears carry the more proven quarterback situation into this game. On the total, Brian Flores' defense has been a genuine problem for Chicago's offense in recent meetings, and with five of the last seven games in this series going under, fading an opening total that is the highest seen between these teams since the Covid seasons makes sense.
Final Score Prediction
- Chicago Bears: 27
- Minnesota Vikings: 20
Expect Chicago's explosive offense to carry the day while Brian Flores' defense keeps Minnesota's attack, likely led by Carson Wentz, from keeping pace in a game that stays under the total.
How to Wager On Vikings vs Bears
Bettors looking to shop for the best number on Vikings vs Bears have several tools available before placing a wager. Comparing the spread and total across multiple sportsbooks can help secure better value than settling for a single closing line, especially on a total that has moved several points throughout the week. For those who want an extra layer of analysis before betting this NFC North matchup, our AI picks breakdown is a useful starting point. Bettors can also dig deeper with our Dimers review and Oddible review to see how different models project this matchup before locking in a side, total, or player prop.
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