New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills Picks and Predictions for Sunday October 4 2026
The New England Patriots visit the Buffalo Bills in Orchard Park, New York, on Sunday, October 4, 2026. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00 PM ET. Buffalo enters Week 4 undefeated at 3-0, while New England has fallen to 1-2 following a lopsided 35-6 loss to Jacksonville. The Bills are currently 6.5-point home favorites, with Buffalo around -330 on the moneyline, New England approximately +270, and the total set around 48.5. Be sure to check out our free NFL picks for more NFL predictions throughout the season.
Patriots Need a Major Rebound
New England’s 1-2 start became significantly more concerning after the Patriots were beaten 35-6 by Jacksonville. The Patriots generated almost nothing offensively and now have to travel to face an undefeated divisional opponent.
New England entered the season with much higher expectations after last year’s success, making the slow start particularly surprising. The Patriots need better offensive execution, but the defense also has to recover after allowing Jacksonville to control virtually every important phase of last week’s game.
Divisional familiarity gives New England some hope. The Patriots have experience playing Buffalo closely and won’t be intimidated by the environment, but their margin for error is extremely small against a Bills team that has started 3-0.
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Bills Looking for a 4-0 Start
Buffalo remained undefeated by beating the Los Angeles Chargers 24-16. It wasn’t necessarily Buffalo’s most dominant performance, but good teams consistently find ways to win games when everything isn’t working perfectly.
The Bills have now positioned themselves to take early control of the AFC East. A victory over New England would move Buffalo to 4-0 while simultaneously dropping the defending division champions to 1-3.
Buffalo’s ability to generate offense in multiple ways creates the biggest problem for New England. The Patriots cannot simply take away one element of the Bills’ attack. They need sustained defensive discipline while finding enough offense to prevent Buffalo from controlling the game script.
New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills Picks and Prediction
Pick: Buffalo Bills -6.5
Buffalo laying less than a touchdown at home is the preferred side. The Bills are 3-0, while New England is coming off a 29-point home loss to Jacksonville. Buffalo doesn’t need to dominate from the opening kickoff to cover this number. If the Bills build an advantage and force New England into obvious passing situations, the matchup becomes increasingly difficult for the Patriots. Buffalo should have enough offensive and defensive balance to win by at least seven.
Pick: Under 48.5
New England’s offense is the primary reason to look Under. The Patriots scored only six points last week, and Buffalo doesn’t need an aggressive offensive game plan if it controls the scoreboard. The Bills can win this game comfortably without pushing into the 30s. A result around 27-17 or 28-16 would cover the Buffalo spread while remaining beneath 48.5.
Final Picks: Buffalo Bills -6.5 and Under 48.5
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